It’s a cold day in the North Country. And it looks like more cold air is in store for later this week. A much more pronounced and deeper trough will be affecting the Northeast after tomorrow.
Vorticity (energy) rounding the base of the trough will spawn a moderate coastal system. This system will bring light to moderate snows to Western and Central New England. After the low passes, the coldest air of the season will follow.
Joe Bastardi, Accuweather’s rockstar, hype-meister meteorologist, has revised his winter forecast. His early winter forecast issued in August, wasn’t quite as tantalizing as this, his final update.
His accuracy was uncanny last year, and this year’s forecast is not out of line with what the East could expect from a moderate La Nina. In his forecast video, linked below, he calls for full on winter north of I-90. He does hedge somewhat calling for a big thaw in January.
The full story is here: Accuweather Winter Forecast 2010/2011.
The model runs are finally starting to converge. Wednesday’s 18z GFS and NAM are calling for a developing coastal low that stalls over the Gulf of Maine. This will bring moderate to heavy rains to the mountains.
What makes this system interesting is that there will be just enough cold air aloft and strong vertical velocity for wet snow to fall in the Adirondacks above 3,000 feet. Amounts are hard to pin down due to the fact that there really isn’t much cold air at the surface.
The first snowfall in the northeast is always fun to predict and watch.
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