The Weather Blog

As mentioned in the forum, there are two possible scenarios with this storm, depending on which model you believe. The NAM is the coast-hugger and the wettest of all the models. The GFS and the EURO have the low further off the coast. I think the reality lies somewhere between the NAM and the GFS.

At this moment, the Cats look like the NY winner with 5-9 inches. Totals should be light to moderate for the ADKs: around 2-4 inches. More snow will fall on the southern Greens and the favored upslope terrain.

It’s all about when and where the development takes place. We’ll have a much better idea about storm track tomorrow afternoon. Stay tuned.

After a week of mild and tranquil weather, things are looking very interesting for the end of the week. Once again, there are big model differences. They all have a similar look, but their placements and intensities are different.

The NAM and GFS 12 1-4 both show a strong upper-level system dropping out of Central Canada into the Great Lakes. The NAM is stronger with this feature and moves it due south into Ohio. If the NAM went out to 90hrs, I bet there would be a nice low forming on the the Delmarv.

The GFS is similar, but keeps the upper feature more in Western NY and develops a slow-moving low further east.

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Dec 8: After having a great run of cold weather and significant snow for some areas, we have to deal with a bump in the road. The storm that is currently giving the Cascades huge amounts of snow will move into the Lower Ohio Valley and strengthen, then it will move up the Appalachians to Central NY and on into Canada.

This scenario would put much of the Adirondacks and New England on the warm side. After the low pulls away, Lake Effect and upslope snows will follow. For some areas, the snow will be heavy. In the storm’s wake, we’ll experience the coldest air of the season.

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