The Weather Blog

The NOAA El Nino Forecast for Winter 2009-2010 has been released.  In the years I can remember that were strong El Nino, it wasn’t ideal for skiers. What meteorologists call a “zonal flow” develops. Big wet storms pound the west coast and come straight across the country. When that flow is really strong cold air gets bottled up in Canada making only short appearances south of the US border.

When El Nino isn’t as strong, it can be good. Honestly I’m not sure what the difference is between a weak El Nino and La Nina. They may be the same thing. In that case, the systems come across and the cold air is more likely to be involved in New York and the northeast.

I still think it’s best when there is no effect. Big cold Highs coming south from Canada, with clippers bringing down more cold air. And coastal lows running along the fronts. That’s what I’m after. I’d always rather have consistent cold, even with a reduced chance of the big juicy storms.

The big meltdowns are a bummer — especially for a mountain like Gore — with limited ability to recover quickly. When this July prognostication comes out every year, the NOAA wording is always non-committal. They know it’s a long way off. But they seems to be saying there is a decent chance of a strong El Nino.

How often do you see this all in one forecast?

What I like is the Winter Storm Warning and the Winter Storm Watch together at the same time. Technically you can’t have both at once, UNLESS they are for TWO DIFFERENT STORMS. Which is the case. Bring it.

The good news from the NOAA, is that there is no real bad news:

In announcing the 2008-2009 U.S. Winter Outlook for meteorological winter from December through February, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are calling for warmer-than-normal temperatures for much of the central part of the nation, and a continuation of drier-than-normal conditions across the Southeast.

With the absence of La Niña and El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean this season, predicting weather patterns on seasonal timescales becomes increasingly challenging. Instead, other climate patterns over the Arctic and North Atlantic regions may play a significant role in influencing U.S. winter weather.

“These patterns are only predictable a week or two in advance and could persist for weeks at a time,” said Michael Halpert, deputy director, Climate Prediction Center. “Therefore, we expect variability, or substantial changes in temperature and precipitation across much of the country.”

The U.S. Winter Outlook does not include a snowfall forecast. Snow forecasts are heavily dependent upon winter storms and are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.

Prepare for winter weather through NOAA Watch. The site gives you the latest weather patterns, forecasts and warnings issued by NOAA’s National Weather Service.