The Weather Blog

The NOAA El Nino Forecast for Winter 2009-2010 has been released.  In the years I can remember that were strong El Nino, it wasn’t ideal for skiers. What meteorologists call a “zonal flow” develops. Big wet storms pound the west coast and come straight across the country. When that flow is really strong cold air gets bottled up in Canada making only short appearances south of the US border.

When El Nino isn’t as strong, it can be good. Honestly I’m not sure what the difference is between a weak El Nino and La Nina. They may be the same thing. In that case, the systems come across and the cold air is more likely to be involved in New York and the northeast.

Continue reading →

How often do you see this all in one forecast?

What I like is the Winter Storm Warning and the Winter Storm Watch together at the same time. Technically you can’t have both at once, UNLESS they are for TWO DIFFERENT STORMS. Which is the case. Bring it.

The good news from the NOAA, is that there is no real bad news:

In announcing the 2008-2009 U.S. Winter Outlook for meteorological winter from December through February, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are calling for warmer-than-normal temperatures for much of the central part of the nation, and a continuation of drier-than-normal conditions across the Southeast.

With the absence of La Niña and El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean this season, predicting weather patterns on seasonal timescales becomes increasingly challenging.

Continue reading →