This just released forecast represents the National Weather Service estimate of how temperatures, over the next six months, will compare to the average temperatures measured over the period 1971-2000. Data used is based primarily on ocean temperatures, modeling the current year against similar years from the past.
The three-month T2M forecast posted last November, did reflect the southern track of the large storms last winter that hit the mid-Atlantic.
NOAA and many other forecasters are calling for a La Niña winter. The map below isn’t a forecast for this winter as much as it’s an overview of weather conditions of the La Niña winters past.
El Niño winters, like last year, seem to be more boom or bust for Eastern skiers. La Niña seems less likely to be extreme in either direction. From a seasonal snow total perspective an average year would be a major improvement in the Adirondacks. For the Catskills, last year is going to be hard to beat.
This map matches the winter forecast by Joe Bastardi posted in August.
National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA and NWS) are continually making long term temperature predictions based on ocean temperature trends. These maps show how predicted temps will compare to long term averages across the country.
While weather guys like Jason are skeptical about the accuracy of anything beyond 10 days out, we really like looking at this stuff.
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