National Weather Service T2M Winter Forecast

National Weather Service Winter Forecast

This just released forecast represents the National Weather Service estimate of how temperatures, over the next six months, will compare to the average temperatures measured over the period 1971-2000. Data used is based primarily on ocean temperatures, modeling the current year against similar years from the past.

The three-month T2M forecast posted last November, did reflect the southern track of the large storms last winter that hit the mid-Atlantic.

12 comments on “National Weather Service T2M Winter Forecast

  1. Looks great for early season skiing this year! Maybe the first Christmas week in years where Mad River Glen doesn’t have to shut down due to rain and thaw? Maybe the new Ski Bowl trails will open by the holiday break? But when you sit down with Mike P for your pre-season Gore interview, you might want to show him those scary temp forecasts for Feb and March and suggest he blow some snow near the base this year, so the lower mountain doesn’t melt out by March 5th.

  2. Kid, I like your optimism.

    I can just see that meeting now… “Mike … I’ve got this data from the National Weather Service here… I recommend you blow more snow on Wild Air!”

    “Harv – I’ll get right on it!”

  3. Might be the year for the Pacific northwest! What do you say PDQ? Northeast early then off we go!

  4. I wouldn’t put one cent into the NWS long range forecasts..

    If the forecast is as accurate as their Hurricane forecast, it isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on.

    An “active to extremely active” hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year yeah right..not one major storm affected the US this season..

  5. It seems like skiing the east early and then heading out west, wherever the snow seems to be falling could be a good strategy. My plans for winter are wide open right now. We’ll see where the snow falls…and then go there.

  6. These maps would mean more to me if I knew what colors indicate what temps. I ass-u-me that the cooler colors (blues) mean cooler temps and the warmer (orange/reds) mean warmer, but the scale is kind of important.

    Of course since I only ski locally, it’s all academic. This side of bare ground, I will be here, sliding on whatever is on the ground at any given time.

  7. Well said Keith! As you put it, its got to be just this side of bare ground for me and I’m out there. That’s what rock skis are for.

  8. Come on Jason … I’m betting you a donut that this forecast will verify. When do you start working anyway?

    Keith — the scientific calibration of the scale is as follows … brown = bad, blue = good. But not too blue, like last year, when all the storms hit NJ!

  9. Thanks for that highly scientific definition, Harv. Now I understand.

    R. Mark – All skis are rock skis.

  10. Amen to that! Its easier if you just accept that so when you hit the first tree, rock, or dirt patch it doesn’t feel quite so bad!

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