NWS Long Term for Black Friday (2009)

The National Weather Service Forecast Discussion (ALBANY) addresses the possibility that a coastal system may produce mountain snow/valley rain late next week. Excerpts are below the GFS model image for Black Friday:

(Click on image to enlarge.)

LONG TERM WED NT-FRI

ANOTHER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST AND TRACKS NNE. AT THE VERY LEAST…WILL INDICATE CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR RAIN…ALTHOUGH SOME WET SNOW COULD BE MIXED IN ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EARLY THU. THEN …AS MID/UPPER LEVEL CONTINUE TO COOL…WE EXPECT ANY RAIN TO GRADUALLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY LATE THU …AND PERHAPS WITHIN VALLEYS BY THU NT OR EARLY FRI.

Continue reading

Mo’ Better Blues: NWS 8-14 Day Forecast

Excerpts from the National Weather Service 8-14 Day discussion. It’s a serious cut and paste job, with lots removed. I left the relevant goodies for eastern skiers.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 24 – 30 2009

TODAYS GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT … PREDICTING THE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS TO SHIFT EASTWARD …

GREATER CHANCES FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US BENEATH OF THE TROUGH … ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST US AND MOST OF THE EAST COAST DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

NWS on the Band Wagon

Looks like the National Weather Service is starting to buy into a pattern change. Accuweather has been calling this for a while, but to us NWS is a more credible source.