Herb Steven’s Winter Forecast (2008-2009)

Herb Steven’s has issued his forecast for the winter. It’s long and ponderous and short on cool graphics. Looks like he is with the majority of pro mets for the east…cold December, warming sometime in January and into Feb and then colder for the finish. Following are excepts from his Snowcounty.com Blog.

SnowcountryI am confident that the season will get off to a strong start in the East, with cold air having arriving today…November 16th. That cold will remain in place all week, and while Thanksgiving Week will not be quite as cold, the snowmakers will be able to continue the big effort during the week of the 17th. Lake effect snow will be plentiful this week, and resorts in upstate New York and portions of northern Vermont will be the primary recipients of some early season snow. The East could see more in the way of accumulating snow during the week of the 24th, when some of that Pacific energy will help create a stormy pattern where the upper level low remains in place in the East. In December, the analog years all suggest a colder than normal run-up to the holidays from the Carolinas to Quebec, and I am very bullish on the prospects for both surface conditions and terrain options later in the month.

The change to a warmer East… should be in place by mid January, and I believe that will be the general pattern through much of February. In the Northeast, snowfall should be adequate during the second half of the season… I think that the warmer than normal weather will continue into March in much of the East, I also think that there will be a late season reversal to colder and snowier weather. The warmth will be of such a magnitude that snow will still be falling north of Interstate 90…similar to last year…

The East will see its’ most consistent snow and cold during the first half of the season, with a January thaw a good bet, although it will not be the extended version like we saw two years ago. The Northeast will enjoy a good number of skiing and riding options by Thanksgiving, and the Christmas holiday prospects are excellent. The second half of the season will not be as cold or snowy, but by mid March, a pattern change will bring a strong finish to the season across the north.

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