MarzNC
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- Jul 18, 2020
Too soon for the "fall" part for Omicron in the USA. I'll post some graphs later today.
The New Normal
- Thread starter Harvey
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MarzNC
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- Jul 18, 2020
Testing is not 100%. Neither is vaccination. But have uses for avoiding serious illness.
Kids are going to get Omicron, if they haven't already had Delta (may not even know it). Seniors are mostly fully vaccinated. So not as much worry that kids will infect seniors they know personally. Unfortunately many unvaccinated seniors have already passed during the 2020 and 2021 surges. However, that means fewer seniors are unvaccinated and at high risk if they get COVID-19. Higher risk in places where Delta is still pretty common, which seems to be the case in New England and Canada.
Omicron is more contagious but less likely to get into the lungs, even for unvaccinated people who have enough sense to seek medical care soon enough when they have noticeable symptoms. In short, lock downs or virtual classes for a lengthy period (more than a few weeks) don't make sense any more. If they ever did.
I'm taking the same precautions for 2021-22 ski season travel as I did for the previous one. Distancing and masking work as well for COVID-19 as it does for seasonal flu. There is apparently are a lot more flu cases already than last winter. Around my neighborhood, masking is common in the supermarket. No longer required at my fitness center and I'm not one of the few who still mask.
Campgottagopee
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- Jul 20, 2020
What's ironic is I've never had a flu shot until this year. Got both my flu and booster shot the same day, in the same arm. I felt that one....lol
Harvey
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I was thinking South Africa or some other place.
Andy_ROC
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- Feb 23, 2021
I hear you. I'm a major germaphobe (have been for at least 30 years). But at this point I feel that my family and I are protected as best as possible--- vaxed/boosted, eating well, exercising and taking vitamins to support the immunity system. Will continue wearing masks as required and even when not required. Heck l may never fly again without a mask because I don't even want a stupid cold!
But what I'm about to say may upset some people--- If I test positive and don't feel anymore than a mild cold then I'm seriously contemplating not reporting and continuing to go about my life as normal as possible--- meaning I'll restrict myself no more than if I had a cold. Avoid close contact with friends, family and co-workers. But beyond that I'm not quarantining. Those at greatest risk are the stubbornly unvaxed and frankly they've made their choice and need to live with the consequences.
--- Sorry Harv, if this is too controversial please feel free to delete and I won't be upset.
raisingarizona
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- Aug 4, 2020
I think I’m in this line of thinking now.
MarzNC
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- Jul 18, 2020
The likelihood that people who are testing positive doing an at-home rapid test AND reporting to a public health authority is probably less than 20% (80-20 rule).
The new CDC guideline for a positive test is to isolate for 5 days, and then mask diligently for 5 days. Meaning assuming no longer any symptoms or symptoms are lessening noticeably, then don't bother to test again. Someone who is vaccinated is probably not infectious 2-3 days after they start an infection. By the time minor symptoms are noticeable, probably anti-bodies are on the prowl dealing with slowing down SARS-CoV-2 replication in the body.
I had minor symptoms the week after I got back from Colorado. My husband seemed to have cold symptoms that started before I got back. Neither of us bothered to get tested. We looked around for rapid tests but couldn't find any. Didn't bother to sign up for a county appointment or wait in line for an hour or more at the free no-appointment lab near our house. Symptoms were gone in less than a week.
Was it Omicron? Perhaps but probably not. All I had was a slight runny nose. No other symptoms. Husband had a cough but very intermittent.
EDIT: we have both had 3 shots. I got a booster (lower dose) of Moderna just before driving to Colorado. He had a third shot of Pfizer months ago because he's in a high risk category. Daughter and SO had boosters before I did because they had second shots early while working in health care the first half of 2021.
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MarzNC
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- Jul 18, 2020
From The NY Times today. More and more hospitals are finding that even with rising numbers of patients, there are fewer who need to be in the ICU, or if they do they don't need ventilation or stay as long. Omicron doesn't get into the lungs as easily as Delta and earlier identified variants.
Looking at detected case numbers or Percent Positive isn't all that useful, except to confirm that Omicron is in a given country/county/city even without any data from genomic sequencing or the results from particular PCR tests that can detect the difference is the S-spike. In NC Percent Positive is over 20% and still going up. But in my county the percentage of patients in ICU is as low as it was before Delta or after the Delta surge ended in the fall.
Looking at detected case numbers or Percent Positive isn't all that useful, except to confirm that Omicron is in a given country/county/city even without any data from genomic sequencing or the results from particular PCR tests that can detect the difference is the S-spike. In NC Percent Positive is over 20% and still going up. But in my county the percentage of patients in ICU is as low as it was before Delta or after the Delta surge ended in the fall.
MarzNC
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- Jul 18, 2020
A couple articles about South Africa. Omicron probably started spreading there by early Nov 2021, if not some time the month before. Was in the neighboring countries in Southern Africa around the same time. My guess is that Omicron made it to Europe by early November as well based on increasing detected cases by mid-Nov with no other alternative explanation.
If you want to check out data for a few countries, I like to use the Data Explorer of Our World in Data. Best to start around Oct. 1, 2021 and only pick countries in the same region that have about the same population. Comparing the USA with 330 million to Belgium or Iceland isn't very useful.
January 5, 2022
www.cnbc.com
December 31, 2021
www.npr.org
If you want to check out data for a few countries, I like to use the Data Explorer of Our World in Data. Best to start around Oct. 1, 2021 and only pick countries in the same region that have about the same population. Comparing the USA with 330 million to Belgium or Iceland isn't very useful.
January 5, 2022
Omicron may have peaked or 'plateaued' in parts of the world, giving experts cause for optimism
There are early, tentative signs that the omicron wave has peaked, or is plateauing, in the places that were among the first to be hit hard by the variant.
www.cnbc.com
December 31, 2021
As omicron heats up in the U.S., South Africa says its wave is on the way out
The variant caused fewer deaths and less severe infections than past versions of the virus in South Africa, but that could be different in other countries.
www.npr.org
MarzNC
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- Jul 18, 2020
A perspective from NYC.
December 20, 2021
www.rollingstone.com
December 20, 2021
New York City Hospitals Aren't Overwhelmed by the Omicron Covid Wave -- But the Rest of the Country Might Not Be So Lucky
Though positivity rates are skyrocketing, high vaccination rates seem to be keeping New York City's hospitals steady.
www.rollingstone.com
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