The New Normal

[MarzNC]

Tompkins County has an Indoor Mask Mandate. Apparently, Cornell sent out an email late Friday, after I left work at 4:30.

I am thinking about working from home tomorrow. I kind of feel like a weenie, but I am concerned.

If you can work from home, why not?

While I'm going to drive up to Lake Placid in a couple weeks, I'm staying very close to my house when I've been home this summer. More so than Summer 2020 in some ways. The arrival of Delta and lack of universal mask requirements means the situation has shifted dramatically since May 2021. Far more is known compared to early March 2020, but the level of uncertainty feels similar to when I had to decide whether or not to let my daughter fly to Boston for a quick visit with a couple adult friends. Meaning just before everything shut down across the country.

 

[MarzNC]

There are people in some regions worrying about going all the way back to using "lockdowns" to slow community spread. Dr. Fauci is saying very clearly he doesn't expect that given the overall vaccination status in most states.

Aug. 1, 2021

Fauci: New lockdowns unlikely despite surge in Delta cases

"But things are going to get worse," Fauci said.

www.axios.com

 

[MarzNC]

View attachment 9888

Good summary table but I think the context in the Axios article and the original NBC report is important too. In particular the fact that there are probably a fair number of breakthrough cases that aren't being detected. That's actually a good sign that vaccination is doing what it was designed to do, which is to make COVID-19 a much lower risk. Vaccinated people who get infected are much less likely to have symptoms that would lead them to seek testing or medical care. So they are that much more likely not to ever get counted.

July 31, 2021

Chart: Less than 0.1% of vaccinated Americans have tested positive for COVID-19

The low numbers show that the pandemic is mostly a threat for the unvaccinated population.

www.axios.com

July 30, 2021

Breakthrough Covid cases: Data shows how many vaccinated Americans have tested positive

The 125,682 "breakthrough" cases in 38 states represent less than .08 percent of the 164.2 million-plus people fully vaccinated since January.

www.nbcnews.com

CDC stopped tracking detected breakthrough cases that don't lead to hospitalization or death back in April 2021. The statistics for breakthrough hospitalization and deaths are updated as CDC gets info from states. Most people who were fully vaccinated and then tested positive were over 65 years old, as of late July 2021. Worth remembering that vaccine eligibility for all adults didn't happen until April 2021.

COVID-19 Breakthrough Case Investigations and Reporting | CDC

Information and resources to help public health departments and laboratories investigate and report COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough cases.

www.cdc.gov

 

[MarzNC]

Reporting about breakthrough cases seems as complicated in July 2021 as reporting on cases was for the USA in April 2020. The data based on testing is known to be incomplete for assorted reasons, especially for asymptomatic breakthrough cases. In 2020 I started following stats for states in The NY Times and CovidActNow because at least the data were presented in a consistent format. So spotting trends was possible. Getting a sense of what's really happening with breakthrough cases across the country will take a while longer. It's good that a few states are collecting good relevant data.

NBC News clearly started trying to make sense of breakthrough cases a while ago. They asked all 50 states directly for data and found that some states are keeping track of the vaccination status for people who test positive. The states tracking breakthrough cases that are mentioned in the July 30 article include WA, UT, OK, MN, IL, VA, LA. MA and NY are probably tracking breakthrough cases too. The hot spots like FL, TX, MO probably aren't even trying. <sigh>

July 19, 2021

A tiny fraction of vaccinated people get sick and die from Covid. Who's at risk?

Fully vaccinated people who become seriously ill following breakthrough infections tend be older or have serious medical conditions.

www.nbcnews.com

July 30, 2021

Breakthrough Covid cases: Data shows how many vaccinated Americans have tested positive

The 125,682 "breakthrough" cases in 38 states represent less than .08 percent of the 164.2 million-plus people fully vaccinated since January.

www.nbcnews.com

"
WASHINGTON — At least 125,000 fully vaccinated Americans have tested positive for Covid and 1,400 of those have died, according to data collected by NBC News.

The 125,682 "breakthrough" cases in 38 states found by NBC News represent less than .08 percent of the 164.2 million-plus people who have been fully vaccinated since January, or about one in every 1,300. The number of cases and deaths among the vaccinated is very small compared to the number among the unvaccinated. A former Biden adviser on Covid estimated that 98 to 99 percent of deaths are among the unvaccinated.

But the total number of breakthrough cases is likely higher than 125,683, since nine states, including Pennsylvania and Missouri, did not provide any information, while 11, like Covid hotspot Florida, did not provide death and hospitalization totals. Four states gave death and hospitalization numbers, but not the full tally of cases.

And vaccinated adults who have breakthrough cases but show no symptoms could be missing from the data altogether, say officials.
. . ."

 

[wonderpony]

If you can work from home, why not?

While I'm going to drive up to Lake Placid in a couple weeks, I'm staying very close to my house when I've been home this summer. More so than Summer 2020 in some ways. The arrival of Delta and lack of universal mask requirements means the situation has shifted dramatically since May 2021. Far more is known compared to early March 2020, but the level of uncertainty feels similar to when I had to decide whether or not to let my daughter fly to Boston for a quick visit with a couple adult friends. Meaning just before everything shut down across the country.

Because I miss seeing actual humans. However, several of the few actual humans I saw on campus have had the same thought that I had: Let's enjoy this little bit of normal while we can. I just thought it would last a bit longer.

 

[MarzNC]

Because I miss seeing actual humans. However, several of the few actual humans I saw on campus have had the same thought that I had: Let's enjoy this little bit of normal while we can. I just thought it would last a bit longer.

Understandable. I would hope that after the students settle in, it will be okay to be on campus.

Best decision I made in April 2020 was to form a "pod" with two other families. The other two families had 3 tweens between them. The kids all enjoy spending time with my daughter since she's a bit older. The single mom really enjoyed it when we got together for a morning hike. The trip to Lake Placid at the lake house in late June 2020 was with them, plus another NCS alum from Boston. Also meant we were very comfortable having turkey together at Thanksgiving since none of us have close relatives who live close by. Having that company in person made a big difference for me.

 

[Adirondack Johnny]

It's getting bad, real bad. Many restaurants here are no longer open for lunch, they simply don't have workers. Some have closed all together.
I'm fearful for the ski areas this winter.
All that said, our biz is setting records each month, we've already had a record year, and it's only July (end of).

Camp, are you setting records as in gross sales or number of units? The used car market is nuts right now.

 

[MC2]

Good summary table but I think the context in the Axios article and the original NBC report is important too. In particular the fact that there are probably a fair number of breakthrough cases that aren't being detected.

I don’t think we should care about that. In fact, any talk about the number of breakthrough infections gives antivaxxers a bunch of fuel for their stupid “see? Vaccines don’t work” arguments.

Better to highlight how rare breakthrough infections are and reinforce the idea that everyone should be vaccinated than to say dumb shit like “actually, all of the people who got vaccinated might have Covid and not even know it!”

At this point, I don’t give a shit if people get the immunity through vaccination or through getting COVID. Highly vaccinated populations like Vermont and the UK are doing well. Focus on that.

 

[Brownski]

+1 MC is talking sense

 

[XTski]

Because I miss seeing actual humans. However, several of the few actual humans I saw on campus have had the same thought that I had: Let's enjoy this little bit of normal while we can. I just thought it would last a bit longer.

Smart of you to show up at your job Wonder! good bosses see that and reward those who show, ones that stay and work from home show how replaceable they are and very well should be