ICE v Electric: Cost and Emissions

[DomB]

That is an excellent question. I do not know. What I do know is that the cost of the battery is what makes them disposable, thus why ins companies have to total them.

It's like battery powered tools. The tools themselves aren't all that much money, but to replace the battery is big bucks compared to the price of a new tool. I know I'll just buy a new tool vs paying for a new battery.

It is a lot. For Tesla it could be higher than other ev apples to apples makers because they have more efficient builds (larger stamps less welds and less wiring) because than other ev makers. Maybe that is part of why they are working in cheaper battery chemistry.

 

[DomB]

New Tesla Model 3 Performance vs Honda Civic Type R:

Starting price:
• Civic Type R: $45k
• Model 3 Performance: $45.5k (including Fed EV credit)

Range:
• Civic Type R: 298 miles
• Model 3 Performance: 296 miles

0-60 mph:
• Civic Type R: 4.9s
• Model 3 Performance: 2.9s

HP:
• Civic Type R: 315
• Model 3 Performance: 510

Power type:
• Civic Type R: Gasoline
• Model 3 Performance: Electric

Dag nabbit.

If the 2 comes out or when the Kia ev 2 comes out i will have the next replacement car but that is probably 6 or 7 years out as 10 yr old Impreza is low miles.

Ps going back to it is complicated, because of the credit system I may be able to fuel two evs off my credits because of the credit ratio. First time in my life I am waiting for a bill (electric) to come in. It may be electric for the year is like 300. With my solar term loan that cost is about the same or lower than my pre rivian electric use.

 

[TheGreatAbyss]

I'd guess that lithium is dropping in price because of the drop in demand for EVs.

Once again despite what you hear from the bozos on AM radio: EV DEMAND IS NOT DROPPING

 

[Campgottagopee]

Once again despite what you hear from the bozos on AM radio: EV DEMAND IS NOT DROPPING

LMAO

Well, if you were to look at Automotive News or Cox Automotive, you'd see that EV demand is in fact dropping. These 2 are industry leading sources. Very neutral sources. All they do is collect data and report on what it means.

 

[TheGreatAbyss]

Funny, you posted from Cox Automative which refuted your own claim, Do you even read the sources that you cite?

ICE v Electric: Cost and Emissions

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q1-2024-ev-sales/#:~:text=Electric%20vehicle%20(EV)%20sales%20growth,a%20decrease%20from%20Q4%202023.

nyskiblog.com

 

[Campgottagopee]

Do you even read the sources that you cite?

Daily

 

[Harvey]

EV DEMAND IS NOT DROPPING

How about softening? Some of the misunderstanding about what's happening may be that demand for Teslas is down and people are conflating Tesla with the entire EV market?

Seems like Tesla is experiencing a drop in demand based on getting a smaller share. Something is causing layoffs and price cuts. Maybe nobody likes Elon, or maybe consumers are gravitating toward lower cost options. Certainly lower cost shortens the payback window.

It could also be changes in both supply and demand. Producers are likely increasing their output. It's possible that Australia, China etc forecast greater increases in lithium demand, and ramped up their production beyond what was in their best interest in the short term (this year).

This is all speculation based on basic market concepts.

What is your evaluation of why lithium is dropping?

 

[DomB]

Does softening work better? Some of the misunderstand about what's happening may be that demand for Teslas is down and people are conflating Tesla with the entire EV market.

Seems like Tesla is experiencing a drop in demand based on getting a smaller share. Maybe nobody likes Elon, or maybe consumers are gravitating toward lower cost options. Certainly lower cost shortens the payback window.

It could also be an increase in supply or a combination of changes in both supply and demand. Producers may be increasing their output. It's possible that Australia, China etc forecast greater increases in lithium demand, and ramped up their production beyond what was in their best interest in the short term (this year).

This is all speculation based on basic market concepts.

What is your evaluation of why lithium is dropping?

Two things imo- 1 slowing growth in demand that exceeded expectation, so prices would need to adjust/drop; 2 increase in supply / normalization post covid supply chain issues.

If traders were betting on increased ev production and production is lower than expected than prices should drop.

Also I think some of the new chemistry that is less energy dense but doesn’t degrade uses less lithium. At least Tesla and rivian are incorporating that into lower range models. Forget the name. Iron phosphate chemistry?

 

[DomB]

And yes Ev demand is growing, however the rate of growth is both decelerating and decelerating more quickly than was expected.

My two cents is we are still higher than I thought we would be. Some of my earlier posts say a few percent at this point. I think it was over 7 percent of new models in 2023. Yes, I know government ramped up incentives.

 

[Campgottagopee]

How much longer can our government justify tax credits for these EV sales? Doesn't seem sustainable to me, nor good business.