Winter Weather 21/22
- Thread starter JTG
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NorEaster27
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2020
NWS Albany liking the NAM
Main uncertainty currently involves how far north a warm layer
aloft extends Friday morning. The 12Z/23 NAM is most aggressive
with bringing such a warm layer farthest north, suggesting a
changeover to sleet/freezing rain for most areas south of I-90,
with some sleet mixing in even to or north of I-90. This
actually seems reasonable, given the anomalous warmth currently
located across the southeastern U.S., and also based on recent
model performance this winter with warm layers aloft.
Main uncertainty currently involves how far north a warm layer
aloft extends Friday morning. The 12Z/23 NAM is most aggressive
with bringing such a warm layer farthest north, suggesting a
changeover to sleet/freezing rain for most areas south of I-90,
with some sleet mixing in even to or north of I-90. This
actually seems reasonable, given the anomalous warmth currently
located across the southeastern U.S., and also based on recent
model performance this winter with warm layers aloft.
wonderpony
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 24, 2020
Flurries in the air tonight. I blocked my calendar on Monday. I always save a vacation day for a weird random ski day. This morning, I was not in the watch range. Tonight, I am solid.
Telefest should be fun Friday at Platty.
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Burlington VT
404 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to
12 inches.
* WHERE...All of northern New York and Vermont.
* WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 10 PM EST Friday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions will likely impact the morning and evening commutes
on Friday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to develop after midnight
and spread northward across the area reaching the international
border by about sunrise on Friday. The snow will be moderate to
heavy at times, falling at a rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour,
during the morning across south central Vermont, then during the
late morning through afternoon across northern New York and
north central Vermont. The snow will taper off from west to east
Friday evening. Storm total snow accumulations of 6 to 8 inches
are expected near the international border with 8 to 12 inches
expected elsewhere. Areas most likely to see amounts around 12
inches will be over the southern third of Vermont and across the
spine of the Green Mountains in Vermont.
National Weather Service Burlington VT
404 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to
12 inches.
* WHERE...All of northern New York and Vermont.
* WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 10 PM EST Friday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions will likely impact the morning and evening commutes
on Friday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to develop after midnight
and spread northward across the area reaching the international
border by about sunrise on Friday. The snow will be moderate to
heavy at times, falling at a rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour,
during the morning across south central Vermont, then during the
late morning through afternoon across northern New York and
north central Vermont. The snow will taper off from west to east
Friday evening. Storm total snow accumulations of 6 to 8 inches
are expected near the international border with 8 to 12 inches
expected elsewhere. Areas most likely to see amounts around 12
inches will be over the southern third of Vermont and across the
spine of the Green Mountains in Vermont.
Warp daddy
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2020
Great , i want to get rid of the hockey rink that is my 150 ' driveway
NYSkiBlog
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
651 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will build eastward across southern Quebec
today, with a northerly flow providing cold and dry weather
across our region. The high will become anchored over central
and southern Quebec into tonight. A storm system approaching
from the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions will bring widespread
accumulating snow to the area starting around or shortly after
midnight tonight. Snow may mix with or change to sleet from
around Albany southward, with some freezing rain possible well
south of Albany. Moderate to heavy snow accumulations are
expected into Friday, as the storm tracks eastward across the
area. Drier and continued cold conditions expected by Friday
night as the storm departs.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Winter Storm Warning issued for all of eastern New York,
southern Vermont and western Massachusetts from tonight into
Friday evening...
Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Litchfield County CT...
A significant winter storm bringing mainly snow to the northern
half of the area, with snow and some sleet and freezing rain
across the southern half of the area, will move across the
region late tonight through Friday.
Synoptic setup:
Aloft, guidance in good agreement indicating an open wave
trough tracking northeast across the Midwest today, eastward
through the Great Lakes tonight, and then through New England on
Friday. The progressive/fast movement of the upper trough will
limit overall residence time of the storm. At the surface, the
primary cyclone is forecast to track into western PA and SW NY
by early Friday morning, while the secondary (coastal) low
develops south of Long Island. The coastal low is expected to
become the dominant cyclone by Friday afternoon as it tracks
south of Cape Cod. An inverted trough (remnants of the primary
low) hanging back from the coastal low will keep low level
convergence in place through Friday afternoon. The system will
depart Friday evening, with snow generally ending from west to
east.
Forcing:
Southerly flow in the low levels will steadily increase tonight
into Friday morning (40-50 kt at 850 mb) as the system
approaches. Along with an tightening thermal gradient, strong
isentropic lift maximized on the 285-290K surfaces will quickly
develop by shortly after midnight, allowing for snow to begin
and rapidly become widespread/steady. Best F-Gen from the
NAM/GFS will be in low levels around 850 mb and is maximized
from early Friday morning through early Friday afternoon. This
is when heaviest snowfall rates are likely to occur, with 00Z
HREF indicating a large gradual northeastward
advancing/expanding swath of 1-2 inch/hour snowfall rates during
this time. Pattern/evolution looks to be indicative of a
laterally-translating snow banding situation (CSTAR research).
Precipitation types:
A near-1040 mb anticyclone parked over central/southern Quebec
will provide the source for low level cold air, with all areas
experiencing snow at the onset. However, a warm nose aloft
associated with the decaying primary low is expected to quickly
move in from the south/west by early Friday morning. NAM is most
aggressive with the northerly extend of this warm nose, but it
is also being shown by the HRRR and HREF, although not quite as
far north as the NAM. Will opt for more of a middle ground at
this time. This will result in mixing with or changing to sleet
from around Albany southward Friday morning. Forecast soundings
indicate the magnitude of the warm nose around +1C to +2C,
likely result in mainly sleet. However, the NAM would suggest a
warmer magnitude around +3C to +5C into Ulster, Dutchess and
Litchfield resulting in a period of freezing rain. Any ice from
freezing rain looks minimal and brief, as the column should cool
Friday afternoon as the primary low decays and the coastal
becomes dominant with sleet/freezing rain changing back to snow
before ending. An impinging dry slot may allow the precip to end
across the southern part of the area first, thus the slightly
earlier expiration time.
QPF:
Model guidance in generally good agreement with the total QPF
from this storm, with WPC blend ranging from around 0.75" in
northern parts of Herkimer, Hamilton, and Warren Counties to
around 0.75" to 1.00" in most of the rest of the area. Locally
greater amounts near 1.25" possible in the eastern Catskills and
into parts of the Berkshires and southern Greens. These QPF
amounts with entirely frozen or freezing precipitation warrants
the issuance of a Winter Storm Warning across almost the entire
area. The Winter Storm Watch was maintained for Litchfield CT in
collaboration with BOX where there is slightly less confidence
in precip type duration/amounts.
Snow/ice accumulations:
Snow-liquid ratios at the onset will likely be close to climo
across much of the area around 10:1(south) to 15:1(north) at the
onset of snow tonight, but then will lower to less than 10:1
south of Albany once snow mixes with then changes to sleet.. So
the greatest pure snow accumulations are expected to be from
around I-90 and the Capital District northward, where 6-12" are
forecast. Greatest amounts near a foot will be across favored
upslope areas of the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens.
Farther south, the introduction of sleet will cut down on
accumulations, with generally 4-8" of snow(with some sleet)
across Ulster/Dutchess/Litchfield and a light glaze of ice from
freezing rain.
National Weather Service Albany NY
651 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will build eastward across southern Quebec
today, with a northerly flow providing cold and dry weather
across our region. The high will become anchored over central
and southern Quebec into tonight. A storm system approaching
from the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions will bring widespread
accumulating snow to the area starting around or shortly after
midnight tonight. Snow may mix with or change to sleet from
around Albany southward, with some freezing rain possible well
south of Albany. Moderate to heavy snow accumulations are
expected into Friday, as the storm tracks eastward across the
area. Drier and continued cold conditions expected by Friday
night as the storm departs.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Winter Storm Warning issued for all of eastern New York,
southern Vermont and western Massachusetts from tonight into
Friday evening...
Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Litchfield County CT...
A significant winter storm bringing mainly snow to the northern
half of the area, with snow and some sleet and freezing rain
across the southern half of the area, will move across the
region late tonight through Friday.
Synoptic setup:
Aloft, guidance in good agreement indicating an open wave
trough tracking northeast across the Midwest today, eastward
through the Great Lakes tonight, and then through New England on
Friday. The progressive/fast movement of the upper trough will
limit overall residence time of the storm. At the surface, the
primary cyclone is forecast to track into western PA and SW NY
by early Friday morning, while the secondary (coastal) low
develops south of Long Island. The coastal low is expected to
become the dominant cyclone by Friday afternoon as it tracks
south of Cape Cod. An inverted trough (remnants of the primary
low) hanging back from the coastal low will keep low level
convergence in place through Friday afternoon. The system will
depart Friday evening, with snow generally ending from west to
east.
Forcing:
Southerly flow in the low levels will steadily increase tonight
into Friday morning (40-50 kt at 850 mb) as the system
approaches. Along with an tightening thermal gradient, strong
isentropic lift maximized on the 285-290K surfaces will quickly
develop by shortly after midnight, allowing for snow to begin
and rapidly become widespread/steady. Best F-Gen from the
NAM/GFS will be in low levels around 850 mb and is maximized
from early Friday morning through early Friday afternoon. This
is when heaviest snowfall rates are likely to occur, with 00Z
HREF indicating a large gradual northeastward
advancing/expanding swath of 1-2 inch/hour snowfall rates during
this time. Pattern/evolution looks to be indicative of a
laterally-translating snow banding situation (CSTAR research).
Precipitation types:
A near-1040 mb anticyclone parked over central/southern Quebec
will provide the source for low level cold air, with all areas
experiencing snow at the onset. However, a warm nose aloft
associated with the decaying primary low is expected to quickly
move in from the south/west by early Friday morning. NAM is most
aggressive with the northerly extend of this warm nose, but it
is also being shown by the HRRR and HREF, although not quite as
far north as the NAM. Will opt for more of a middle ground at
this time. This will result in mixing with or changing to sleet
from around Albany southward Friday morning. Forecast soundings
indicate the magnitude of the warm nose around +1C to +2C,
likely result in mainly sleet. However, the NAM would suggest a
warmer magnitude around +3C to +5C into Ulster, Dutchess and
Litchfield resulting in a period of freezing rain. Any ice from
freezing rain looks minimal and brief, as the column should cool
Friday afternoon as the primary low decays and the coastal
becomes dominant with sleet/freezing rain changing back to snow
before ending. An impinging dry slot may allow the precip to end
across the southern part of the area first, thus the slightly
earlier expiration time.
QPF:
Model guidance in generally good agreement with the total QPF
from this storm, with WPC blend ranging from around 0.75" in
northern parts of Herkimer, Hamilton, and Warren Counties to
around 0.75" to 1.00" in most of the rest of the area. Locally
greater amounts near 1.25" possible in the eastern Catskills and
into parts of the Berkshires and southern Greens. These QPF
amounts with entirely frozen or freezing precipitation warrants
the issuance of a Winter Storm Warning across almost the entire
area. The Winter Storm Watch was maintained for Litchfield CT in
collaboration with BOX where there is slightly less confidence
in precip type duration/amounts.
Snow/ice accumulations:
Snow-liquid ratios at the onset will likely be close to climo
across much of the area around 10:1(south) to 15:1(north) at the
onset of snow tonight, but then will lower to less than 10:1
south of Albany once snow mixes with then changes to sleet.. So
the greatest pure snow accumulations are expected to be from
around I-90 and the Capital District northward, where 6-12" are
forecast. Greatest amounts near a foot will be across favored
upslope areas of the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens.
Farther south, the introduction of sleet will cut down on
accumulations, with generally 4-8" of snow(with some sleet)
across Ulster/Dutchess/Litchfield and a light glaze of ice from
freezing rain.
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