saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Winter Weather 21/22
- Thread starter JTG
- Start date
- Status
I suppose if one wants the best combo of existing base + new snow on Friday Gore is probably the best call. Me, I’ve got the season pass conundrum….so I’ll ski Platty and hope 6-12 erases the grim. Just gotta fight those free heel freaks for available pow on skiable trails!
Gore would make my drive to Sugarbush Friday evening shorter…..
NYSkiBlog
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1245 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Mild temperatures this morning will plummet behind a cold
front as it passes through the region from northwest to southeast
today. It will become windy behind the front as well. Temps will
return to seasonably cold levels tonight into Friday with dry
weather. Then, a winter storm is expected to bring moderate to heavy
snow to the region Thursday night into Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Winter Storm Watch issued for all of eastern NY and western
New England 10 pm Thu through 10 pm Fri...
Yet another shortwave will emanate from the troughing over the
Intermountain West Thursday, tracking into the Northeast by
Friday. This wave will dig further south than previous similar
setups late last week and yesterday. An surface low will
develop along the sharp baroclinic zone laid out from the
southern Plains into the Northeast states. Strong isentropic
lift with efficient moisture transport is forecast to occur,
with the moisture being lifted above the dome of cold air in
place over our forecast area. This will result in an area of
snow quickly expanding through the forecast area SW to NE
(10 pm Thu through 4 am Fri). Lift will be enhanced
within the equatorward entrance region of a strong,
anticyclonically curved jet max favorably positioned over our
area. The primary low will move near Pittsburgh by around 12Z
Fri, with a coastal low developing thereafter (Miller B setup).
Model guidance has been more consistent than normal over the
past few days with this general setup, which would put much if
not all of our forecast area under the gun for some moderate to
heavy snowfall Thursday night into Friday. There is still some
uncertainty with how far north the warm nose aloft progresses,
with some guidance showing the possibility of some sleet mixing
in across the eastern Catskills, Mid Hudson Valley, and
Northwest Connecticut. But even there, precip on the front end
should be moderate to heavy snow Thursday night before any
transition occurs Friday morning. Enough confidence to go with a
Winter Storm Watch for the entire CWA 03Z Fri to 03Z Sat (10 pm
Thu through 10 pm Fri) for the potential of 6-12 inches of snow. Plumes
off the NBM show rather good clustering for warning-level snows
from Herkimer to Albany to Bennington and points north, with
greater spread/less certainty to the south.The timeframe for the
heaviest snow looks to be roughly 06-18Z Fri (1 am to 1 pm),
where snowfall rates in excess of an inch per hour will be
possible. Cross section analysis shows some negative EPV in the
midlevels which signifies instability and could lead to the
higher snowfall rates. On the other hand, snow ratios are likely
to be a bit below climo with the approach of the warm nose and
limited DGZ depth. These details will be ironed out over the
coming days.
Snowfall expected to continue into Friday afternoon and evening
with the heaviest snows shifting north of I-90 as the
secondary/coastal low takes over. We could see a dry slot
punching in from the south and west which could dry up the
precip from I-90 south for the afternoon, with some drizzle or freezing
drizzle possible (this could be another failure mode for heavy
snow if it comes in quicker than forecast).
National Weather Service Albany NY
1245 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Mild temperatures this morning will plummet behind a cold
front as it passes through the region from northwest to southeast
today. It will become windy behind the front as well. Temps will
return to seasonably cold levels tonight into Friday with dry
weather. Then, a winter storm is expected to bring moderate to heavy
snow to the region Thursday night into Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Winter Storm Watch issued for all of eastern NY and western
New England 10 pm Thu through 10 pm Fri...
Yet another shortwave will emanate from the troughing over the
Intermountain West Thursday, tracking into the Northeast by
Friday. This wave will dig further south than previous similar
setups late last week and yesterday. An surface low will
develop along the sharp baroclinic zone laid out from the
southern Plains into the Northeast states. Strong isentropic
lift with efficient moisture transport is forecast to occur,
with the moisture being lifted above the dome of cold air in
place over our forecast area. This will result in an area of
snow quickly expanding through the forecast area SW to NE
(10 pm Thu through 4 am Fri). Lift will be enhanced
within the equatorward entrance region of a strong,
anticyclonically curved jet max favorably positioned over our
area. The primary low will move near Pittsburgh by around 12Z
Fri, with a coastal low developing thereafter (Miller B setup).
Model guidance has been more consistent than normal over the
past few days with this general setup, which would put much if
not all of our forecast area under the gun for some moderate to
heavy snowfall Thursday night into Friday. There is still some
uncertainty with how far north the warm nose aloft progresses,
with some guidance showing the possibility of some sleet mixing
in across the eastern Catskills, Mid Hudson Valley, and
Northwest Connecticut. But even there, precip on the front end
should be moderate to heavy snow Thursday night before any
transition occurs Friday morning. Enough confidence to go with a
Winter Storm Watch for the entire CWA 03Z Fri to 03Z Sat (10 pm
Thu through 10 pm Fri) for the potential of 6-12 inches of snow. Plumes
off the NBM show rather good clustering for warning-level snows
from Herkimer to Albany to Bennington and points north, with
greater spread/less certainty to the south.The timeframe for the
heaviest snow looks to be roughly 06-18Z Fri (1 am to 1 pm),
where snowfall rates in excess of an inch per hour will be
possible. Cross section analysis shows some negative EPV in the
midlevels which signifies instability and could lead to the
higher snowfall rates. On the other hand, snow ratios are likely
to be a bit below climo with the approach of the warm nose and
limited DGZ depth. These details will be ironed out over the
coming days.
Snowfall expected to continue into Friday afternoon and evening
with the heaviest snows shifting north of I-90 as the
secondary/coastal low takes over. We could see a dry slot
punching in from the south and west which could dry up the
precip from I-90 south for the afternoon, with some drizzle or freezing
drizzle possible (this could be another failure mode for heavy
snow if it comes in quicker than forecast).
I don’t like talk of a potential dry slot working in south of 90, possibly keeping QPF down on Friday. What do you make of that?
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
It’s snowing.
- Status
