We are in the midst of a pandemic of a novel coronavirus. Viruses mutate. SARS-CoV-2 has unusual properties. Being contagious with no symptoms is a major difference from the other novel coronaviruses of the 21st century (SARS, MERS). Also seems to be the case that SARS-CoV-2 mutates more often.
We are lucky that vaccine development and research methods related to detection, treatment, epidemiology can move faster than 10-20 years ago. The amount that has been learned in the last 18 months is amazing. But the general public is not usually aware of all the twists and turns that happen during medical or scientific research. Nor do they care for the most part. <sigh>
From what I can gather your background includes way more statistical analysis than I have so I'll try to lay things out as best I can.
What irks me is that the narrative on this whole mess changes daily and is not consistent with proper scientific method. We started with "flatten the curve", moved on to "stay away from people" then "wear a mask" (useless). Then we were subjected to the PCR test (proven to be nearly useless and the FDA recently admitted that it
does not differentiate between covid and influenza) and for the first time that I can remember we begged
all people (not just symptomatic people) to get a "test". Our mentally challenged County Executive today said "Our positive rate is high but once the SU students get back and get tested I'm sure the rate will drop." No shit, Sherlock.
Then we asked test-positive people (even those without symptoms) to isolate/quarantine. Next we heard "the vaccine" (it
is not a vaccine) will save us; "if you get the vaccine then life will get back to normal." Then we heard that "95% of hospitalizations were from the un-vaxed." We then learned that close to half of the hospitalizations are from the vaxed - in Israel it's closer to 80%. Now the public health officials/media are talking about a booster shot like it was always part of the plan...nothing to see here.
Then there's the vaccine. None of them use Covid-19 as a base; Moderna & Pfizer shots instruct the body to produce spike proteins...but wait, aren't spike proteins what cause the majority of the physiological problems from covid? You know, blood clots, etc.? Sure, the body mounts a response but you're basically giving covid to everyone who gets the shot. It's already been observed that these spike proteins
do not stay at the injection site but travel to all organs of the body. Genius...what could possibly go wrong?
I suspect that a large number of people that got the vaccine will decline to get the promoted booster shots. I am also quite confident that the "cases" will subside for the next month or two and then balloon come October...just like last year. IMHO natural immunity is the only thing that will save us. Human beings have a propensity to think they can outwit nature, God, etc.