Poll: The Impact of the Epic Pass

[raisingarizona]

Breck, I'm pretty sure, yesterday. Or maybe the day before. Whatever. This isn't even Xmas week. What the hell.
Looking at the bright side, if that mountain and the whole ski industry isn't shut down by the end of January, we're cool. This is a test. Beep, beep, beep.

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People are paying a lot of money to do that! That amazes me.

Human behavior is fascinating.

 

[MarzNC]

I just think that Alterra has smarter and more engaged people running the show right now, and they seem to have a plan for what the future will be in 2030. Listen to Stuart Winchester's podcast interview of Rob Perlman, president of Steamboat and COO of one of their region's in the Rockies, and then listen to Stuart's interview of Tim Baker, the eastern region VP of Vail resorts. The difference is obvious. Perlman has a detailed five year plan for Steamboat, which, not my cup of tea, but, if you know the place, makes total sense for what is their primary customer. Baker really has nothing, not that I blame him, but, if you plop all of these small hills in somebody's lap, as disparate as Hunter to Mt. Snow to Wildcat, yeah, that's going to be hard to integrate, especially if you haven't even skied most of them, like he admitted. But, probably a good gig and pays well, if he keeps his head down.

Agree that Alterra has a much more sensible approach to allowing senior management to make decisions for a ski resort that they are invested in at some personal level. Other than Crystal, the Alterra resorts have long-term plans that seem to make sense. The folks at Crystal will figure it out, but the growth in the local population center and lack of parking is not something they can control.

The VR approach to senior managers is to move them around. Not only within a region but across regions. Very hard to really get a feel for a location after only 1-2 seasons.

For example:

SUNAPEE
2020 Peter Disch as GM 01Jun
2019 Tracy Bartels starts as GM, was Mt Ops at Keystone, Breck instructor 2000
2018 Bruce Schmidt, from Okemo

WILMOT, Chicago market
2020 - Scott Leigh as GM; started at Vail 1998
2018 - Peter Disch as GM in June, was at Keystone
2016 - Taylor Ogilvie as GM right after sale complete, was at Mt Brighton (left VR Feb 2018)
Jan 2016 - VR sale announced

 

[tirolski]

With any asset you can continue to invest in it, or take dividends.

Some folks do both.

 

[MarzNC]

First of all, as you pointed out, this is four years old, which, I'm pretty sure is pre Peaks purchase and the crude, blundering entry into the northeast after Stowe. Then, well, Covid, which is neither here or there, for now. Everybody got Covid. But, the Peaks purchase just proves that Vail isn't as calculating or well managed as the writer assumed, . . .

As for Peak Resorts, they were having trouble understanding the northeast and mid-Atlantic ski areas as they expanded out of the midwest (OH, IN). For that family, getting a buy-out offer from VR was probably a lot easier than continuing to try to run a public company. The level of complaining from the DC folks who are local to the former Snowtime resorts (Roundtop, Whitetail, Liberty) was pretty high after Peak took over. Certainly hasn't gotten any better under VR.

 

[idratherbskiing]

As for Peak Resorts, they were having trouble understanding the northeast and mid-Atlantic ski areas as they expanded out of the midwest (OH, IN). For that family, getting a buy-out offer from VR was probably a lot easier than continuing to try to run a public company. The level of complaining from the DC folks who are local to the former Snowtime resorts (Roundtop, Whitetail, Liberty) was pretty high after Peak took over. Certainly hasn't gotten any better under VR.

was Peaks the Sakler family?

 

[MarzNC]

Even if covid didn't exist it seems Vail has seriously damaged the entire ski experience.

That sounds like a regional impression. Not sure the feeling is the same in Colorado or Tahoe. Of course, have to consider the people who don't use social media for their once a season ski vacation. There are plenty of VR bashers out west online.

My sense is that people who try to use approaches that worked well in one region in another another region run into trouble. ASC did well for a while in the northeast. Trying to handle Steamboat was a mess. The Muellers wanted Crested Butte after success with Okemo, but CB was a completely different situation. Even with the high level of dedication that was happening before the VR offer, the going was tough at CB.

 

[MarzNC]

was Peaks the Sakler family?

NO! The family who created Peaks as private company had nothing to do with the Sacklers when all the locations were in the midwest before they set their sights on expanding into the northeast. That connection happened after Peaks went public. Fair to say that while Tim Boyd and his sons understood a lot about snowmaking, they didn't have the same level of knowledge about what can happen to a public company with a lot of debt as Rob Katz did when he took over as CEO of VR.

Peak Resorts History - NewEnglandSkiHistory.com

In contrast to the Boyd family, the Kircher family have been far more patient as they have continued to improve operations for Boyne Resorts. Peak Resorts had far too much debt. Boyne sold resorts to a REIT when the 2008 recession hit . . . and bought everything back about 10 years later, while continuing to operate all of them. Boyne has managed to handle the realities of the midwest (MI), the northeast (NH, ME), and the west (Big Sky, Brighton, etc.) quite well as a private company.

 

[trackbiker]

Breck, I'm pretty sure, yesterday. Or maybe the day before. Whatever. This isn't even Xmas week. What the hell.
Looking at the bright side, if that mountain and the whole ski industry isn't shut down by the end of January, we're cool. This is a test. Beep, beep, beep.

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I think most people are really missing the downside of the cheap passes. With 42% more pass sales, crowds like this are going to be the norm at resorts like Mt. Snow, Okemo and most others. While their new CEO is good with sales algorithms for consumer products, it's a different thing for services. People will still buy Pepsi because it's cheap but after they experience holiday-like crowds every weekend and poor service, on top of now paying for parking, many won't repurchase their product no matter what the cost. A good friend experienced the mess at Wildcat and Attitash last year and he, his 2 daughters and sons-in-laws all said they would never buy the Epic pass again. The other downside is potential new skiers don't buy passes to start and when they see the walk-up rates they'll decide to go snowmobiling or ice skating instead of skiing. They're killing off the new customers as they baby boomers and getting out of the sport. The senior management at VR will take their big salaries, sell their stock options, and leave the other stock holders holding the bag when things collapse.

 

[MarzNC]

I stopped by the base of Boston Mills recently on my way back from Colorado (via Cleveland to drop off my travel/ski buddy). Turns out that Boston Mills is in a state park. So VR is operating more than one location where they don't own any land. I thought Sunapee was the exception.

It's been very warm in Ohio in Dec, so snowmaking is very much behind.

 

[MarzNC]

The other downside is potential new skiers don't buy passes to start and when they see the walk-up rates they'll decide to go snowmobiling or ice skating instead of skiing. They're killing off the new customers as they baby boomers and getting out of the sport.

On the other hand, the non-Epic/non-Ikon ski areas that have decent marketing are finding new local customers. The owner of Berkshire East and Catamount has noted that they are finding a market. The Indy Pass is helping some people understand that there are a lot of other places to go skiing that they have never heard of before.

From what I can tell, the history of the American ski industry has never really had a long period of stability. Meaning more than a decade or so before a major shift happened for one reason or another. The gas crisis of the early 1970s, the recession of 2008, and other social/economic changes that had nothing to do with snow are a couple of examples.