Poll: The Impact of the Epic Pass

[poindexter]

I agree with TomCat re the serious skier. My daughter and her friends just bought Epic passes for the first time this year. The deal was too good to pass up. They are based in Boston and now have unlimited skiing in NH and are planning a trip to Park City, mooching off of friends/family ski houses in both places. They are all serious skiers with little cash. For a bunch of poor post-college/grad students, it opens up a lot of opportunity and makes skiing a real bargain. They are so grateful to be able to do this that the lift lines probably won't bother them. Also, those lines are not all over the mountains. My brother just came back from Park City and he said that there were only bad lines at a few lifts, and a lot of the problem was the lack of terrain, but that improved over the course of the week as more snow fell. He did mention that lack of staffing was an issue though.

 

[Harvey]

I tried to structure this poll so that all the different possibilities could be captured in one way or another.

The one thing it touches on, but doesn't really address directly is the time frame.

It's possible that Epic could be good for skiers this year, or next year, and bad for them in 20 years, if it shrinks the industry even more than demographics suggest.

I believe that things will change. It could be external to Vail, as covid fades and the labor market improves, the situation simply becomes more workable. Or maybe, as predicted, skiing will shrink as boomers retire and Vail will be better able to handle the volume that cheap season passes create.

I wonder if Vail can adapt from within to remain profitable and support skiing at the same time.

 

[tirolski]

The one thing it touches on, but doesn't really address directly is the time frame...
It's possible that Epic could be good for skiers this year, or next year, and bad for them in 20 years, if it shrinks the industry even more than demographics suggest.
...Or maybe, as predicted, skiing will shrink as boomers retire and Vail will be better able to handle the volume that cheap season passes create.

Who’s predicting skiing will shrink as boomers retire?
Not having to work gives ya more time for skiing.
Ya said yerself ya plan to move to yer cabin so’s ya can ski more when ya retire, or something to that effect.

 

[Brownski]

I think Harv meant to say as boomers retire from skiing

 

[Peter Minde]

There was a time I considered that it might be a good idea to have an Epic pass. Who wouldn't want to be able to ski at many mountains with one pass? But then if I bought an epic I'd base my travel around where there was an epic mountain, and I don't like that. I don't want to be tied down.

Long term I see this as hurting the ski industry. Big corporate monopolies and the Disneyfication of skiing is something I loath. Squeezing smaller mountains and non epic mountains financially will force some out of business and ultimately leave us with fewer choices. This will result in higher prices and more crowding. Not good.

Oh and in the meantime it was just announced days ago that VR just bought 3 more mountains. Ugh.

"The Disneyfication of skiing." Brilliant observation; I hope it doesn't happen.

 

[tirolski]

"The Disneyfication of skiing." Brilliant observation; I hope it doesn't happen.

Unfortunately for some places it already has.

 

[Old Fart Snbder]

I’ve been skiing/riding since 1980 and I think these multi mountain passes are the greatest thing to ever happen to skiing. I own both Ikon and Epic and love them both. I ride 50+ days a season and it costs less than it did in the 1990s. I see lots of people complain about lines but all these mountains have some fixed grip lifts with no lines. Look at the Outlook Double next to the Fourrunner at Stowe absolutely blows my mind that there’s a massive line at the HS vs no line at the Outlook. One Saturday last season I boarded 31k vert at Stowe including lunch break by utilizing all the lifts and waiting in virtually no lines.

 

[TonyC]

This is a great thread and I applaud Harvey for the comprehensive detail of his poll.

For anyone who skis a lot, the multiarea passes are great deal. I'm a variety junkie as evidenced by the record 37 areas I skied in 2018-19, 16 of them for the first time. Despite that 37 of my 70 days were on Ikon.
20 of my 41 days in 2019-20 were on Ikon.
28 of my 51 days in 2020-21 were on Ikon and another 5 on Indy as I was avoiding some of the big places with pandemic obstacles like remote parking, enclosed lifts, advance reservations.

While I much prefer Ikon's ski areas and operating/management to Epic, I'm still a captive audience. If Vail owned Mammoth, I'd have to be on Epic. I feel lucky that Alterra's CEO Rusty Gregory came from Mammoth so he understands the mountain and its clientele. The first year of Ikon Alterra was going to require full Ikon for unlimited skiing at Mammoth. Within a week the outcry from existing Mammoth passholders resulted in change of policy, making Base Ikon unlimited aside from holiday blackouts. Mammoth's former season pass was $100 more than a Base Ikon.

I've heard that the Epic/Ikon passes are good for the independents. Since corporate day tickets are jacked up so high, the independents can charge $60-$70 and make money vs. the $30-$40 they might have to charge if the big places wanted to compete on day tickets.

I recall reading that POWDR Corp shut down or jacked prices on kids/school programs when they took over Killington. If Vail is doing the same, that reinforces my negative vote about long term impact.

I think Harv meant to say as boomers retire from skiing

Most of them already have. According the the Kottke reports on US Skier visits:
People born 1953 and prior were 21.0% of visits in 1998, 12.0% in 2009 and 5.5% in 2019
People born 1954-1963 were 23.6% in 1998, 19.3% in 2009 and 10.8% in 2019
Total skier visits were 54.1 million in 1998, 57.4 million in 2009 and 59.1 million in 2019.

I've always said you have to look at ski areas in regional context, and I'm sure that's why Vail has blundered by replacing too many local people with corporate types from outside the region. I suspect Vail's initial Midwest purchases were on balance positive with the big infrastructure improvements. But they are clearly foundering at Stevens Pass and with many of the Peaks resorts.

Someone mentioned snowmaking at the Peaks areas. In the 1980's Killington bought what is now Bear Mt. in SoCal, never could make snow there as well as locally owned Snow Summit two miles away with the same water source. Bear went through a couple of other owners before Snow Summit bought it in 2002. The next year the snowmaking was of the same quality at both areas.

So yes from an operations standpoint the Alterra model looks more sensible, letting the individual areas operate independently. But how does the Alterra parent company, which is private equity, make money out of this and how do they cash out down the road profitably? Remember in addition that Alterra has to pay significant $$$ to places like Alta, Snowbird and Jackson to get them on the Ikon, and to many more such places overall than Vail has to pay Epic partner resorts.

 

[Harvey]

"Hey Harv, last boomer out turn out the lights!"

Thanks on the poll Tony, I actually had help from @MC2.

 

[rfreeman]

I have an Epic, 3rd year in a row. This year I also have an Indy and have used it far more as the increase in Epic Pass sales and getting rid of reservation requirements has led to overcrowding.

I would have voted good for skiers in past years but vote bad this year. They should increase price somewhat and start requiring reservations to limit capacity again IMO.