ICE v Electric: Cost and Emissions

Just announced today a new plant east of Atlanta and their quarterly “earnings”.
They finally had revenue . . . . 1m on negative earnings (loss) of I think several hundred million. But they have 20 bln in cash. Hence the factory announcement. When I have time i am going to listen to the earnings call which is on their website for four weeks.
 
They finally had revenue . . . . 1m on negative earnings (loss) of I think several hundred million. But they have 20 bln in cash.
That would be $12 hundred million but who’s countin.
Rivian posted a third-quarter net loss of $1.2 billion. Rivian's shares tumbled 9.8% in after-hours trading ...

The pickup launched in September and the SUV this week, and Rivian has delivered 386 of the 652 vehicles it has built.


$1million in revenue divided by 652 vehicles equals ~$1500.
$1million in revenue divided by 386 vehicles equals ~$2600.
I’d buy one at either price and would be happy waitin it out for delivery.
What am I missin?

 
That would be $12 hundred million but who’s countin.
Rivian posted a third-quarter net loss of $1.2 billion. Rivian's shares tumbled 9.8% in after-hours trading ...

The pickup launched in September and the SUV this week, and Rivian has delivered 386 of the 652 vehicles it has built.


$1million in revenue divided by 652 vehicles equals ~$1500.
$1million in revenue divided by 386 vehicles equals ~$2600.
I’d buy one at either price and would be happy waitin it out for delivery.
What am I missin?

Not an accountant and have not reviewed the financials, but I think they could only book revenue based on what they delivered in q3, which is way lower than 652 vehicles. In fact, it is probably 1m divided by the price of LE truck, which is around 70k. so like 15 trucks delivered in q3 if i got the basic math right. After quarter end they are talking about updated numbers, but the financials are only numbers in q3.
 
Yeah i am listening to the quarterly - the 652 is as of Dec 15. But the financials are as of 9/30
 
Interesting facts from earnings call: available on rivian.com/investors

Backlog of orders is now 71,000. Min price is 69k. Up from around 48k from initial IPO prospectus delivery in Sept.

469m cash outlay in q3 - buildout of normal factory and regional facilities

Raised 13bn of cash through IPO. Counting IPO would have had 20 bln in cash at end q3.

Q&A

Why buy a second location when you don't have the Normal factory fully up? A: Intentional choice to apply learning - bringing plant online by 2024 requires action now

How is the early build going? 55,400 orders to be done of end of '23 - are you standing by that? A: A lot of excitement on delivery. . . . driving additional orders [to 71k]; focused on quality, and adding over the air updates on features on vehicles. Working hard to ramp, but orders exceed current rate of production; working to have supply meet demand; planning to hit but if you order today you wont get in 2023.

Where are biggest bottlenecks in production ramp? Daily prod rate now? A: Ramping is like an orchestra - ramp supply chain, work force, equipment, quality loops. Don't see long term challenges. One constraint has been building battery modules - 9 modules with many batteries in one battery back. Takes a lot of assembly work. There are 3 lines: development line; fully automated line; line 2 coming up now; higher volume to avoid battery as a constraint. Do not see batteries as a long term constraint.

Ramp issues? RJ noted the two delivered R1s's went to him and the CFO.

As your backlog grows and some wont get delivery to 2024-ARE there things to acclerate ramp given response? will you raise prices? A: Looking to accelerate ramp given demand. Ramping R1 line and EDV (Amazon) at the same time. Planning to grow normal capacity from 150k to 200k. Re pricing, given how awesome the cars are . . . . they are aggressively priced, talking alot about this. .

Order pace - increase - update on the pace of weekly orders? Also increase interest in EDV platform from non amazon. A: Yes, increased attention and orders recently. Including first drive program and employee and non employee deliveries; this is increasing demand. Demand getting more intense in big markets. Getting more than anticipated. Re RCV platform (EDV) they have exclusive arrangement with Amazon for last mile space; that allows Rivian to learn fast. Also interest outside of last mile space and are engaged in players in this space.

Battery sourcing: with samsung - will you insource to vertically integrate battery production? A: Most important q in electrification because of need to scale as an industry to make more evs. Three approaches parallel: 1 Sourcing an existing cell (doing for launch vehicles 2170 cells); 2 create capacity with suppliers - working on this but not announced - co invest in capacity; 3 - take fully integrated approach with sourcing and design - core to Rivian ; pilot production late next year.

Ramp on preorders increasing so quickly- how does it align to your expectations? Exciting; heightened awareness of company from IPO plus coverage from media. Motortrend 2022 truck of the year. We expect this to continue to lead to increase in preorder demand, which has them focused on how to continue to ramp production.

Who are these folks? Truckowners, etc? It is the white space from the existing market - vast majority of cusomters comeing from 1 never had electric and 2 90 pc of R1t never owned a truck (someone said wow on the call I think);

Describe the key constraint now for ramp? you did mention the welding of battery packs? Can it be addressed or is this design? A: This is really complex. Hundreds of suppliers with thousands of parts, thousands of robots ; thousands of employees; reviewing constantly. We are ramping largely as expected. Battery is expected and we have a second line of batteries coming on line. This is part of the challenge. This is normal S curve ramp.

When will you see software upgrade revenue? Consumer is Membership for 1 year; after that, charge monthly fee, including charge, roadside and connectivity.
 
Dom, serious question.

Doesn't it bother you a little that Rivian is now the largest car company in the world based on capitalization but has produced a total of something like 500 trucks and has yet to turn a profit?

I know that's the way of big business today but doesn't that worry you a little as a soon to be customer?
 
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