ICE v Electric: Cost and Emissions

[riverc0il]

I can tell you, without a doubt, wholesale prices have plummeted. The only exception would be 3/4 ton trucks, and mid-size SUV's that are clean, and have low miles.

I cannot speak for used EVs/trucks/SUVs, but used ICE cars with low miles are still over valued where I live. Though, that probably won't last much longer.

I just got $15,600 from a Carmax for my 2017 Civic. Dealer offered like $11,500. And while the dealer's offer was too low, the Carmax offer was absurdly high (low mileage at 10k/year for 6 years, but still... I paid $25k OTD for that thing, that was less than $2k/year total cost to drive, with minimal maintenance). I wanted to get a buy/sell done ASAP before sale prices came down, I think I got the deal done at just about the right time.

I have a feeling used prices will crash soon, especially as repos go up (and even more so once post pandemic year leases start re-juicing used dealer inventory). I think the continued new vehicle shortages from Toyota, Honda, and Hyundai/Kia are also floating used values a bit longer than they otherwise would have lasted (new buyers may opt for used when they wanted new, impacting demand).

I got a TON of thoughts about the car market right now. I am still trying to synthesize my thoughts into something concise and coherent. I spent three years thinking about it before executing this past weekend... mostly waiting for better options, when the options actually got even worse as prices rose and features got pushed into higher trims.

The short of it is that manufacturers' prioritizing EVs over high-efficiency ICE, hybrids, and PHEVs has really screwed over the majority of car shoppers (that are not looking for a FWD sedan, at least, those are plentiful and cheap).

The manufacturers will get punished by having EVs sit on lots and need deep discounts. But that really doesn't help the average car buyer at all, especially those that can't get an EV. Manufacturers are in too deep to course correct at this point.

 

[riverc0il]

I've got a 19 crv exl 1.5L turbo and have never gotten anything remotely like that highway driving. And according to Google the mpg specs are the same between the 19 and 23. What kind of magic are you working to get that kind of mpg?

My partner and I just did a 5 hour trip to NY for a vaca. We took her CRV because we needed to haul a bunch of stuff and our dog. The thing was fully loaded, but try as I might, I couldn't quite hit 30mpg on the computer, let alone 40mpg.

We were carrying a bunch of stuff and it is a AWD vehicle (not sure which engine she has). The route would have yielded over 40mpg on my old Civic. So, I agree, 40mpg is insane. Computer or manually calculated, either way that is really high for a CRV.

 

[Brownski]

Unles I’m mistaken, Harv‘s CRV is a hybrid and most of his trips are in town. Totally different from the standard CRV equation

 

[Harvey]

Two CRVs in my recent past.

My 2017 was the best car I ever had. 1.5 L Turbo. I could get 37 "cruising" around the burbs spring and summer. When I drove to the mountains, in winter was the lowest maybe 32, on a combo of winter highway with some steep mountains stuff. I would get it close to 34 or 35 on those trips, but the 1000 feet up to the cabin three or four times in a weekend would kill it. Also completely gave up on putting things on the roof.

I get that kind of mileage because I am psycho. If you spend a month checking the instantaneous mpg readout, you learn how to do it. It would probably drive most of you insane. I can see how normal people would think it takes all the fun out of driving. It is my goal to never go below the speed limit if other cars are around. The 2017 could go pretty fast (72) and still get good mileage.

My 2023 Hybrid is at 40mpg lifetime over about 11,000 miles. On short drives around here I can get 45 with it, but when I take it to the cabin it drops to like 35-38 (summer). Driving a hybrid to maximize mileage is another kind of game. Pulse and glide. The suburbs 40 mph driving gives you insane numbers (for both hybrids and ice). Sometimes in the hybrid, I can go a mile on electric. If it's the six mile drive to work, that means I'm getting 45 mpg for that short trip.

When I got both cars I did the math on the mpg, the old fashioned way, for two tanks. Both times it was within 1/10 of a mpg on the tank when compared to the digital. I use the digital. Also, not proud, but I am almost always alone, without much cargo.

 

[jasonwx]

"Driving a hybrid to maximize mileage is another kind of game. Pulse and glide."
it must be a party driving with you, do supply barf bags?

 

[Peter Minde]

I've gotten decent mileage when I can cruise at 70 or so in the right lane, especially late at night when there's little traffic. Best in the diesel shooting brake was 45 mpg; best so far in the Fortunate Son (AWD) is 33 mpg, both hand calculated. When I have to goose the throttle to pass people going slow in the fast lane, it goes downhill.

 

[Harvey]

Hence my use of the word insane above. I don't really do all that stuff when I have passengers beyond the mrs. But that is rare. And of course all bets are off if I'm late for first chair.

 

[Harvey]

I cannot speak for used EVs/trucks/SUVs, but used ICE cars with low miles are still over valued where I live. Though, that probably won't last much longer.

I just got $15,600 from a Carmax for my 2017 Civic. Dealer offered like $11,500. And while the dealer's offer was too low, the Carmax offer was absurdly high (low mileage at 10k/year for 6 years, but still... I paid $25k OTD for that thing, that was less than $2k/year total cost to drive, with minimal maintenance). I wanted to get a buy/sell done ASAP before sale prices came down, I think I got the deal done at just about the right time.

I have a feeling used prices will crash soon, especially as repos go up (and even more so once post pandemic year leases start re-juicing used dealer inventory). I think the continued new vehicle shortages from Toyota, Honda, and Hyundai/Kia are also floating used values a bit longer than they otherwise would have lasted (new buyers may opt for used when they wanted new, impacting demand).

I got a TON of thoughts about the car market right now. I am still trying to synthesize my thoughts into something concise and coherent. I spent three years thinking about it before executing this past weekend... mostly waiting for better options, when the options actually got even worse as prices rose and features got pushed into higher trims.

The short of it is that manufacturers' prioritizing EVs over high-efficiency ICE, hybrids, and PHEVs has really screwed over the majority of car shoppers (that are not looking for a FWD sedan, at least, those are plentiful and cheap).

The manufacturers will get punished by having EVs sit on lots and need deep discounts. But that really doesn't help the average car buyer at all, especially those that can't get an EV. Manufacturers are in too deep to course correct at this point.

Great insight.

 

[Harvey]

2023 CRV Hybrid.

This morning's six mile drive to work:

It's a good short trip for mileage. My route includes 2 miles of 25 mph (maybe 75% EV), two miles of stop and go (traffic lights) with 40 mph speed limit (~30% EV). Then 45 mph for another two miles (~30% EV), and then 25 mph for the last half mile (100% EV). That's the fastest way to go. The thing is when you are stopped you aren't using gas, and when you are going slow, it's often all EV. The ugly side is that this car gets crappy mileage as an ICE. Way worse then my 2017.

Unfortunately my "lifetime" measurement was on Trip A, and it was reset at the last oil change.

It was at 40mpg. Here it is 920 miles since that change, still at 40:

 

[Campgottagopee]

The manufacturers will get punished by having EVs sit on lots and need deep discounts.

Manufactures won't be punished, the dealers are the ones who will take it on the chin.