ICE v Electric: Cost and Emissions

[DomB]

Currently the USA averages 17 million car sales/yr. Right now the EV sales are a pimple on a bulls as, so yes, right now it's not that big of a deal. When we flip to all EV it most def will become an issue. For those buying EV's to be "green", imo, is more of a justification of the (currently) higher price tag. They might be green up front, but they dirty at the end. There will be massive amounts of very toxic shit that will have to be disposed of.

I agree with your fact, Camp, re sales.

Whether you call it justification, a rationale, or logic, part of the EV conclusion is driven by green justification. Part of this is self interested. Probably for most of us, the planet can trend this way and be livable by the time we are all moved on. But I have kids, and nephews and nieces, and I don't want to hand them a planet degraded (environmentally) that I kind of saw happen under my lifetime and before.

I do not, however, believe there will be a 'toxic' situation with spent auto EV batteries. As I mentioned before, many good minds have or are are working on valid, needed second life application, where a used battery will go into storage or solar.

As to future waste, many people are going to go solar. They will need those batteries, which will perform fine for non auto storage. Not sure I will go through with it (100 commitment) but I just ordered a solar system for my house. 12 kw system and two powerwalls will give me 94 percent engergy independence. No batteries would get me 46%. It also would run my house for 6 days in event of a power outage and costs less than a generator. And, again, while green is a motivation for me, the system will pay for itself in ten years and generate several tens of thousands of 'profit' over the 25 year warranty period (batteries only have a 10 year period, but I included them in the profit number; they actual bring down the excess to me but I view em as (a) green generator; (b) key to my own energy independence. If I dont have the cash, NYS offers bridge loans and medium term loans to finance at 3.49%. People pay higher rates for shorter loans for many things, including cars, which are depreciating assets. Yes, solar will depreciate, but in the mean time, it will have more than paid by itself. Warrarnty is backable in my opinion because it is Tesla.

Back to your point: Here is a small discussion of second life use of batteries; keep in mind that after this article, the No. 2 at Tesla started the Tesla of battery recycling:

"Electric adventure vehicle manufacturer Rivian plans to re-purpose the used EV batteries in a solar micro-grid project in Puerto Rico.

The company will use the 135kWh batteries from its development vehicles to support the project. This move will supply power to many businesses in the area.

In case of power loss, this solar micro-grid will supply power to the residents of the area for core businesses. This system is also claimed to bring down high commercial energy costs by offsetting day-to-day electric bills."

 

[DomB]

I wouldn't recommend any EV to anyone I know. IMO they are way too expensive vs ICE. I do believe there will come a day when it does make sense because as competition becomes greater the prices will come down. As that article explains Tesla does NOT make money selling cars. The only reason they still exist is because of politics.

Camp - not everyone is Tesla. Volkswagen, of dieselgate scandal, has committed to EVs; Youtube a review of the ID.4, a crossover to compete with ICEs like CRV and RAV4. After the 7500 incentive, it is cheaper than those vehicles and performs better (other than perhaps topline RAV4 in 0-60) albeit base model only has 250 range.

Yes, subsidies will go away, but likely not under this administration. Also, GM, which almost single-handedly killed EVs by owning the early tech and killing it, said they will go 0 tailpipe by 2035. GM was 7.7 MILLION vehicles sold in 2019. I believe all the passenger cars will be EV. It looks like they might do hydrogen for commercial fleets.

Whle Tesla really impressess me, and will continue to be a leader, GM brings largers mfg scale, which will reduce prices. Tesla really has no incentive to offer cheaper cars (yes it loses money but its operating margin on the vehicles is higher than traditional automakers). Without more competition, Tesla will only go lower into the market at their pace (Musk himself has said they plan to release a 25k EV, but the true 35k Model 3 never really happened excluding rebates). More mfgs (which is really there now with GM and VG) will make cars that seek to compete with ICEs.

Tesla really doesn't have a short term goal to compete with ICEs. Their goal has been to get a halo by coming out with high performing lux cars and working 'down' market to 3 and Y, which are still pretty fancy.

 

[DomB]

L

Each EV company has their own charging system? WTF. Whatever happened to the USB-type thingy being good for folks?

T, take a look at the history of the NY subway system. Robber barons in some cases privately owned separate lines and competed with each other. Eventually, they were consolidated. This often happens with expensive but promising systems.

Also, as Jason noted, there are really two systems: Everyone else, and Tesla. Teslas can go to everyone, but not everyone can go to Tesla. Tesla said on last earnings call that they will open their system. It is a pretty nice competitive advantage.

I own no individual stocks, it is just the fact of the matter that you will get the most accurate info from an earnings call (not nece saying it is accurate).

 

[Brownski]

I think it’s safe to say that the juries still out whether EVs can be good for the environment long term before another giant leap in technology. When a battery can be taken out of a car with 300k on it, put through some kind of process that makes it like new and put into another vehicle without degrading performance, then you will be getting somewhere. The idea that they will be repurposed forever is a little baffling. How many slowly degrading toxin leaking laundry room wall batteries do you think I need?

 

[DomB]

I think it’s safe to say that the juries still out whether EVs can be good for the environment long term before another giant leap in technology. When a battery can be taken out of a car with 300k on it, put through some kind of process that makes it like new and put into another vehicle without degrading performance, then you will be getting somewhere. The idea that they will be repurposed forever is a little baffling. How many slowly degrading toxin leaking laundry room wall batteries do you think I need?

72? : )

 

[tirolski]

I think it’s safe to say that the juries still out whether EVs can be good for the environment long term before another giant leap in technology.

I might try spinnin an E-Bike first. Already have an outback that works well. Baby steps.

 

[Milo Maltbie]

I think it’s safe to say that the juries still out whether EVs can be good for the environment long term before another giant leap in technology. When a battery can be taken out of a car with 300k on it, put through some kind of process that makes it like new and put into another vehicle without degrading performance, then you will be getting somewhere. The idea that they will be repurposed forever is a little baffling. How many slowly degrading toxin leaking laundry room wall batteries do you think I need?

You're betting against technology. The market for used batteries be as big as the amount of solar and wind gebneration added to the grid. A "spent" battery still stores a lot of energy, just not with enough density to carry around. That's not an issue at all for staionary batteries. Most of those batteries will end up connected directly to the grid somewhere, not in your house.

mm

 

[Milo Maltbie]

Tesla really doesn't have a short term goal to compete with ICEs. Their goal has been to get a halo by coming out with high performing lux cars and working 'down' market to 3 and Y, which are still pretty fancy.

Elon Musk is a lunatic who wants to change the world. He doesn't need to build cars you can afford to do that. The Tesla strategy is to builds cars that everyone wants, and let someone else build copies that everyone can afford. That's really the fastest way to get broad acceptance of electric vehicles.

mm

 

[Brownski]

Ok- but 17 million a year? That was the number cited earlier for annual car sales. And I’m not betting for or against anything. When it works for me, I’m in.

 

[Campgottagopee]

Ok- but 17 million a year? That was the number cited earlier for annual car sales. And I’m not betting for or against anything. When it works for me, I’m in.

This, exactly, is my point. If people want to be the first through the wall, sobeit. I ain't that guy when it comes to EV's. I'm getting ready to haul my sled up to and around the Dacks, the last thing I need to worry about is where a charging station is. Someday?? Time will tell.