Fall Weather 2022

It looks like another rain event next week. The pattern looks to change after that and deliver some actual SNOW around 12/20-12/23.
I'm seeing it in the GFS too, but a few days before that.

I don't stress about the weather the way I used to. When there is no snow I try to be a responsible adult. It's not my first choice, but hey.
 
what does this entail?

Anything that gets backburnered when there is a nor'easter tracking up the coast.
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
645 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Dry weather will return today with some breaks of
sunshine and continued above normal temperatures. Temperatures will
be closer to seasonable levels for Friday and Saturday, with
continued dry conditions and a mostly sunny sky each day. Some
light snow is expected to end the weekend for Sunday into Sunday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Confidence continues to increase on a precipitation event Sunday
into early Monday as upper-level energy and a weak surface low track
eastward across the area from the Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
region. The actual track of this feature remains a bit uncertain and
will depend on its interaction with a surface high located to its
north and a strong vertically stacked low pressure system near
Labrador. Still, confidence is highest for precipitation to occur
for areas along and south of I-90 and across the southern
Adirondacks with lower confidence elsewhere. Temperatures profiles
will favor precipitation starting as snow or a mix of rain and snow
on Sunday transitioning to all snow Sunday night as wet-bulb
processes and dynamic cooling gradually drop surface temperatures
to and then below freezing. Where it does snow, a light accumulation
of snow is anticipated, even in the valleys. The higher snowfall
amounts (possibly reaching advisory levels) look to be across the
higher elevations.


This system quickly departs out to sea on Monday with surface high
pressure returning with a period of dry weather for the first part
of the week. A large storm system which will develop across the
central CONUS early in the week will gradually shift eastward,
increasing precipitation chances for the end of the week.
 
yep quick couple of inchs on monday...things look colder and more wintry at the tail end of the month...this is right on schedule...
 
CONUS_GFS_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_240HR.

GFS 240
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
432 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds gradually clear tonight giving way to a chillier night.
Expect abundant sunshine tomorrow with seasonably cool
temperatures and a slight northerly breeze. Sunshine on Saturday
will slowly fade behind increasing clouds late Saturday into
Saturday night. Our next disturbance arrives Sunday into Sunday
night resulting in a period of snow and light snow
accumulations which may give us slippery travel conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Confidence continues to increase on a precipitation event Sunday
into early Monday as upper-level energy and a weak surface low track
eastward across the area from the Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
region. The actual track of this feature remains a bit uncertain and
will depend on its interaction with a surface high located to its
north and a strong vertically stacked low pressure system near
Labrador. Still, confidence is highest for precipitation to occur
for areas along and south of I-90 and across the southern
Adirondacks
with lower confidence elsewhere. Temperatures profiles
will favor precipitation starting as snow or a mix of rain and snow
on Sunday transitioning to all snow Sunday night as wet-bulb
processes and dynamic cooling gradually drop surface temperatures
to and then below freezing. Where it does snow, a light accumulation
of snow is anticipated, even in the valleys. The higher snowfall
amounts (possibly reaching advisory levels) look to be across the
higher elevations.


This system quickly departs out to sea on Monday with surface high
pressure returning with a period of dry weather for the first part
of the week. A large storm system which will develop across the
central CONUS early in the week will gradually shift eastward,
increasing precipitation chances for the end of the week.
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
432 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds gradually clear tonight giving way to a chillier night.
Expect abundant sunshine tomorrow with seasonably cool
temperatures and a slight northerly breeze. Sunshine on Saturday
will slowly fade behind increasing clouds late Saturday into
Saturday night. Our next disturbance arrives Sunday into Sunday
night resulting in a period of snow and light snow
accumulations which may give us slippery travel conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Confidence continues to increase on a precipitation event Sunday
into early Monday as upper-level energy and a weak surface low track
eastward across the area from the Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
region. The actual track of this feature remains a bit uncertain and
will depend on its interaction with a surface high located to its
north and a strong vertically stacked low pressure system near
Labrador. Still, confidence is highest for precipitation to occur
for areas along and south of I-90 and across the southern
Adirondacks
with lower confidence elsewhere. Temperatures profiles
will favor precipitation starting as snow or a mix of rain and snow
on Sunday transitioning to all snow Sunday night as wet-bulb
processes and dynamic cooling gradually drop surface temperatures
to and then below freezing. Where it does snow, a light accumulation
of snow is anticipated, even in the valleys. The higher snowfall
amounts (possibly reaching advisory levels) look to be across the
higher elevations.


This system quickly departs out to sea on Monday with surface high
pressure returning with a period of dry weather for the first part
of the week. A large storm system which will develop across the
central CONUS early in the week will gradually shift eastward,
increasing precipitation chances for the end of the week.
Great - just in time to eff up the Sunday ride home.
 
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