Tjf1967
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2020
That was certainly a day to remember. Handing out hot cocoa to sooth the souls. Could even get a decent fire going it was so wet
Fall Weather 2022
- Thread starter Ripitz
- Start date
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
This is true. The only saving grace, at least here in CNY, is that we can't ride until deer season is over which is Jan 1st.
Let it snow!!!
Andy_ROC
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 23, 2021
Skiing is challenging enough but at least when the temperature cooperates the mountains can make snow. My buddies buy these expensive sleds, trailers etc and it seems the window to use them gets shorter and shorter. Glad I got into mountain biking instead.
Hope is on the horizon for next week. Let it snow.
Rain midweek | New England Daily Snow Forecast | OpenSnow
Another rain storm is on our doorstep this week for Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures warming into the 40s. Models are...
TheGreatAbyss
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 23, 2020
Care to post the text for those of us who don't pay for Open Snow?Skiing is challenging enough but at least when the temperature cooperates the mountains can make snow. My buddies buy these expensive sleds, trailers etc and it seems the window to use them gets shorter and shorter. Glad I got into mountain biking instead.
Hope is on the horizon for next week. Let it snow.
Rain midweek | New England Daily Snow Forecast | OpenSnow
Another rain storm is on our doorstep this week for Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures warming into the 40s. Models are...opensnow.com
Snow-Forecast is showing maybe a couple of inches in the Cats this weekend. After an inch of rain of course.
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
It's just so much fun! The adrenaline rush is unmatched unless you're on a sport bike. It's expensive, no doubt.
Andy_ROC
Well-known member
- Joined
- Feb 23, 2021
Sorry about that. Here's the text without graphics.
Rather than copy/paste the whole thing (sorry no graphics)...
Summary
Another rain storm is on our doorstep this week for Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures warming into the 40s. Models are then uncertain about a storm for the weekend, but are trending colder and snowier into next week.
Short Term: Sucks (my words)
Extended:
Regardless of what happens this weekend, the models are pointing toward another potential storm arriving on Monday and Tuesday next week (Dec 12-13), but with all the usual uncertainty for a 7-8-day forecast. The comparison between the two models above is like a game of "where are these images the same, where are they different?" They both have storms coming into the West Coast and they both have storms over the central U.S. The GFS is very wet and snowy into the West with a Great Lakes snowstorm, whereas the ECMWF spins up a coastal low for New England.
The ensembles do not provide is us with much more of an answer. The ECMWF ensemble has about 30% odds of snow with this set up next Monday/Tuesday, but has many more solutions with snow extending into next week.
While the details are uncertain, we may finally be turning the page into a snowy regime for the second half of the month. The Greenland Block that we have been watching over the last week or two will retrograde into northern Canada. This should be the impetus we need to push colder air into the U.S. favoring an East Coast storm track. A lot will depend on how it interacts with storms over the North Pacific, so cross your fingers.
The New England Daily Snow will mostly likely be updated agin on Wednesday. I may push an update on Tuesday if there is closure on a Friday-Saturday storm (or not).
-Dr. Jay
Rather than copy/paste the whole thing (sorry no graphics)...
Summary
Another rain storm is on our doorstep this week for Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures warming into the 40s. Models are then uncertain about a storm for the weekend, but are trending colder and snowier into next week.
Short Term: Sucks (my words)
Extended:
Regardless of what happens this weekend, the models are pointing toward another potential storm arriving on Monday and Tuesday next week (Dec 12-13), but with all the usual uncertainty for a 7-8-day forecast. The comparison between the two models above is like a game of "where are these images the same, where are they different?" They both have storms coming into the West Coast and they both have storms over the central U.S. The GFS is very wet and snowy into the West with a Great Lakes snowstorm, whereas the ECMWF spins up a coastal low for New England.
The ensembles do not provide is us with much more of an answer. The ECMWF ensemble has about 30% odds of snow with this set up next Monday/Tuesday, but has many more solutions with snow extending into next week.
While the details are uncertain, we may finally be turning the page into a snowy regime for the second half of the month. The Greenland Block that we have been watching over the last week or two will retrograde into northern Canada. This should be the impetus we need to push colder air into the U.S. favoring an East Coast storm track. A lot will depend on how it interacts with storms over the North Pacific, so cross your fingers.
The New England Daily Snow will mostly likely be updated agin on Wednesday. I may push an update on Tuesday if there is closure on a Friday-Saturday storm (or not).
-Dr. Jay
NYSkiBlog
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
403 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will thicken and lower overnight ahead of
a warm front. The warm front will bring periods of mainly rain
tomorrow morning through the afternoon with above normal
temperatures into the mid week. The unsettled weather continues on
Wednesday ahead of a cold front before cooler more seasonable
temperatures return late in the week.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper system exits through eastern Canada Thursday and as upper
confluence increases over eastern Canada, strengthening low level
ridging will build south out of Canada. Cold advection will be weak
at first, but then, by Thursday night and Friday the colder air will
build into our region. Highs Thursday with increasing sunshine in
the 40s to lower 50s with around 40 higher terrain.
Friday through Monday, there are major disagreements in the overall
upper pattern in sources of guidance/ensembles. Some sets of
guidance/ensembles suggest a complex evolution of an upper system
and low level forcing contributing to chances of rain and snow
showers Friday into the weekend. Other sets of guidance/ensembles
show a weakening upper impulse tracking well south of our region
while flat northern stream upper ridging continues over our region
through much of the weekend with little to no precipitation.
The mean of the ensembles suggest more clouds than sun and just
slight chances for rain and snow showers with the snow showers
mainly at night Friday night. Sunday could be mainly dry but again
more clouds than sun as a potentially more organized upper impulse
or developing closed low could begin an approach to our region later
Sunday into Monday. By Monday afternoon, there could be some chances
for isolated rain and snow showers.
Highs Friday around 40 to mid 40s with mid 30s to around 40 higher
terrain. Highs Saturday in the upper 30s to lower 40s with lower to
mid 30s higher terrain. Highs Sunday and Monday in the upper 30s to
lower 40s with mid 30s higher terrain.
National Weather Service Albany NY
403 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will thicken and lower overnight ahead of
a warm front. The warm front will bring periods of mainly rain
tomorrow morning through the afternoon with above normal
temperatures into the mid week. The unsettled weather continues on
Wednesday ahead of a cold front before cooler more seasonable
temperatures return late in the week.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper system exits through eastern Canada Thursday and as upper
confluence increases over eastern Canada, strengthening low level
ridging will build south out of Canada. Cold advection will be weak
at first, but then, by Thursday night and Friday the colder air will
build into our region. Highs Thursday with increasing sunshine in
the 40s to lower 50s with around 40 higher terrain.
Friday through Monday, there are major disagreements in the overall
upper pattern in sources of guidance/ensembles. Some sets of
guidance/ensembles suggest a complex evolution of an upper system
and low level forcing contributing to chances of rain and snow
showers Friday into the weekend. Other sets of guidance/ensembles
show a weakening upper impulse tracking well south of our region
while flat northern stream upper ridging continues over our region
through much of the weekend with little to no precipitation.
The mean of the ensembles suggest more clouds than sun and just
slight chances for rain and snow showers with the snow showers
mainly at night Friday night. Sunday could be mainly dry but again
more clouds than sun as a potentially more organized upper impulse
or developing closed low could begin an approach to our region later
Sunday into Monday. By Monday afternoon, there could be some chances
for isolated rain and snow showers.
Highs Friday around 40 to mid 40s with mid 30s to around 40 higher
terrain. Highs Saturday in the upper 30s to lower 40s with lower to
mid 30s higher terrain. Highs Sunday and Monday in the upper 30s to
lower 40s with mid 30s higher terrain.
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
It's nowhere near time to push the panic button. We're only 10" behind Avrg snowfall here in CNY. That can change real quick, like in 5 hrs if MaNatch decides she's ready to turn in on.
jasonwx
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Yep most of great winters don’t get going until January
Still fall
