Fall Weather 2022

[saratogahalfday]

From a VT pov..

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EST Friday...Light snow is looking likely for the
southern and western portions of our area for the second half of the
weekend as an upper shortwave will push eastward from the Great
Lakes and across northern New England. The weak surface low will
traverse over or just to the south of our forecast area, spreading
precipitation from west to during the day Sunday. The existing
airmass will be very dry, so it will take a while for the column to
saturate and precipitation to reach the ground. Temperatures will be
marginal, in the lower to mid 30s, though do expect wet bulbing to
occur as precipitation starts to fall, so it should fall as snow.
Given the lack of robust forcing and substantial moisture, the snow
will be light in nature. There will be a tight moisture gradient,
and models still having a hard time agreeing on exactly how far
north and east the snow will spread, so have stayed with a lot of
chance PoPs for central and northern VT, while snow is looking more
likely for the southern St Lawrence Valley, Adirondacks, and down
into the southern Champlain Valley and Green Mountains. Still, even
these areas will only get an inch or so at best, with just a few
tenths expected elsewhere. The low moves east by early Monday
morning, bringing the snow to an end after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 255 AM EST Friday...We`ll see a return to quieter weather for
much of the work week. Given high latitude blocking that will be in
place, upper low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will be
shunted south and west and down into the Gulf of Maine region by mid
week, while another broad upper low tries to move eastward from the
Rockies and across the Central Plains. This places us right in the
squeeze play under the narrowing ridge, keeping our weather dry
through at least Wednesday. Temperatures will remain on the cool
side for this time of year, with highs in the lower/mid 30s and lows
in the mid teens/lower 20s Monday through Wednesday. Uncertainty
grows thereafter as there is considerable model spread in how
quickly the ridge breaks down, allowing the Midwest low to progress
into the Great Lakes while a series of surface lows/frontal
boundaries tries to develop over the Appalachians/Mid Atlantic. What
this means for us is increasing chances for precipitation for the
latter half of the week, but exactly when, how much, and what form
it will take is still uncertain. Hopefully model trends will become
more clear as we draw closer to the timeframe in question.

 

[NYSkiBlog]

Two events.

Late this weekend

Late next week

GFS 240

 

[jasonwx]

I guess a inch or so is reasonable everywhere on sunday night..
the 240 map is just wrong..zero zilch..
ok now for something interesting.. the gfs for a couple of runs has been spinning up a super storm in the 180hr and beyond boxes...this is something to watch...but it is still in the fantasy land ...

 

[Harvey]

I'm confused. The 240 includes the 180?

 

[NYSkiBlog]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
620 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered to our north across Canada will bring
dry and seasonable weather today through Saturday. Low pressure
will then track across our area Sunday through Sunday night and
bring a widespread accumulating snowfall. Mainly dry weather
returns for the first half of next week with temperatures
remaining near seasonable levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A stronger upper-level low/shortwave trough and surface low
will approach the area from the Great Lakes Sunday morning and
push across the area through Sunday night. Sufficient moisture
and forcing for ascent will be present with this system which
will bring widespread precipitation to the region. Guidance
continues to be slightly different with the track and timing of
this feature, though precipitation chances will increase from
west to east throughout the day Sunday with all areas seeing
some precipitation by Sunday evening. Confidence on this event
occurring is high enough to introduce high likely to low
categorical pops for the entire region at this point.

Thermal profiles will be cold enough for most if not all snow
with this event. Some rain could briefly mix in at the onset
should temperatures in some valley areas start out in the
mid-30s, though wet- bulb/dynamic cooling processes will
quickly drop these temperatures to or below freezing, supporting
snow. Latest snowfall accumulation forecast is a widespread 1.5
to 4 inches. Across valley locations, it is likely that
accumulations will be lower on paved surfaces versus non-paved
due to temperatures being closer to freezing at the onset of
precipitation which can support some initial melting.
Adjustments to the forecast amounts will likely occur over the
next couple of days so it is important at this point in time to
not only focus on the expected forecast but the low and high end
amounts as well as changes in the track and available moisture
could lead to these different scenarios.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The next chance for unsettled weather will be later in the week,
as the closed low over the Rockies finally shifts eastward.
Model guidance has shifted from earlier runs that suggested
strong low pressure would move across the Great Lakes and
southern Canada with a frontal boundary towards our area. Now,
the initial storm will likely occlude and remain over the
northern Plains during the mid- week, while another secondary
low pressure area will develop over the frontal boundary and
move from the mid Atlantic towards the Northeast for Thurs-Fri.
With this pattern in place, the mild air won`t be able to fully
make it up into our region, so there will be a greater potential
for wintry weather than it appeared a few days ago. Models have
shifted the timing with this system as well, so it should be
dry through Wednesday. However, Thursday into Friday now look to
have the potential for some snow, which also mix with sleet,
freezing rain and plain rain (especially for southern areas)
depending on the exact track and strength of the surface storm.

 

[jasonwx]

I'm confused. The 240 includes the 180?

to be honest i don't know what that map means....

 

[Harvey]

Go to the bottom of this page:

NY Ski Weather: Forecasts, Radar and Maps

If you're craving NY ski weather, come and get it.

nyskiblog.com

And click on the map that looks like this:

 

[jasonwx]

new run killed the storm...it was in the tea leave time period anyway

 

[Harvey]

If there is something 10 days out, you can be assured I am following it. Stuff comes and goes. Sometimes it comes back.
Nothing surprises me.

 

[NYSkiBlog]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
341 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2022

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Impactful winter weather expected Sunday afternoon and night,
as a compact mid/upper level shortwave and weakening surface low
track east/southeast across south central NYS. Current track
places areas from around I-90 southward within low/mid level
frontogenesis/warm advection and eventual deformation leading to
a period of light to moderate snowfall during this time.

It appears that snow should develop initially across the western
Mohawk Valley/SW Adirondacks Sunday morning, before expanding
east and south into the Capital Region/Lake George-Saratoga
region during the midday hours, and into the southeast
Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, and southern VT by early/mid
afternoon. The area of snow may slow its eastward extent, but
should eventually reach the Berkshires and NW CT by late
afternoon.

The main uncertainty involves exactly where any embedded banding
and brief bursts of moderate snow occur, which will be tied to
the exact track of the compact mid level low center (occurring
mainly just north and east of its track). Should this track a
bit farther north or south than currently expected, banding
potential would follow suite.

At this time, most areas from I-90 southward are forecast to
receive 2-4 inches of snow, with locally higher amounts (perhaps
4-6") across higher terrain of the eastern Catskills, and lower
amounts (generally 1-3") across the southern Adirondacks and
far SE VT, which may be farther removed from best forcing from
this compact system. Some Winter Weather Advisories may be
issued later in time, once confidence in location of moderate
snowfall amounts increases.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Considerable uncertainty for Thursday/Friday owing to the
interaction between the arriving and departing upper lows. In a
basic sense, if the two lows can remain separate, this would
increase the chances of the incoming low remaining coherent and
fostering secondary coastal low development as a strong upper jet
max rounds its base. 12Z ECWMF/CMC are examples of this. 12Z GFS
paints a much more tranquil scenario, with the shortwave ridge
breaking down, allowing the incoming energy to be directed to the
southeast. Enough support in the ensembles to go with likely PoPs in
the 60-70 range for later Thursday into Thursday night, with chances
continuing into Friday. With some of the models showing a very
amplified pattern tapping Gulf moisture and potential for coastal
development, interested parties should monitor the situation for the
end of the week due to the potential of impactful winter weather,
while remaining cognizant of the uncertainty described above.