Fall Weather 2022

[NorEaster27]

Very blocked up pattern with loads of potential for the next few weeks, winter pattern arrived today

 

[NYSkiBlog]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
614 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2022

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Winter Weather Advisory in effect for Schoharie, western Albany,
western Greene and western Ulster counties from 5 am Sunday to
10 am Monday

Some slight increase in snowfall amounts occurred with this
update. Snowfall totals now range in the 2 to 5 inch range for
most areas with a few localized areas possibly reaching 6
inches. Lowest snowfall amounts will be across far northern
areas with a general 1 to 2 inches expected. After collaborating
with surrounding offices, there was enough confidence to issue
a Winter Weather Advisory for Schoharie and western portions of
Albany, Greene and Ulster counties with this update. Advisories
could be expanded to additional areas in later updates if or
once confidence increases for enough widespread 4 inch amounts
in NY/VT or 3 inches in MA/CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Forecast confidence then decreases considerably for the Thursday
to Friday time frame, with a chaotic upper level pattern
developing. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance vary
considerably with regards to the flow pattern aloft and its
implications for a possible coastal storm. At this time, the
ECMWF and especially the CMC are most aggressive indicating a
more amplified pattern and a Miller B type storm setup with a
weakening primary cyclone over the Ohio Valley and a deepening
cyclone along the mid Atlantic coast. The GFS has flatter flow
aloft with an absence of any coastal development. The GEFS mean
at least resembles a pattern similar to the ECMWF, although the
spread in cyclone strength/track is considerable. Putting all
this together yields a forecast limited to chance PoPs based on
the uncertainty. Should a significant coastal storm develop, it
could end up being a high impact event for parts of the region
in terms of possible snow/wind. Will continue to monitor trends
over the next several days.

 

[Harvey]

new run killed the storm...it was in the tea leave time period anyway

Annnnd it's back...

GFS 240

 

[TheGreatAbyss]

FWIW The Euro has been pretty consistent with 10+ for the Cats at least

 

[Andy_ROC]

Annnnd it's back...
View attachment 16707

I can virtually guarantee a storm. How can I say this with such certainty?

Well I have a flight scheduled to LGA Thursday morning to spend the weekend in NYC, the first in 35 years. So the timing would be right to mess with my trip

 

[Brownski]

I can virtually guarantee a storm. How can I say this with such certainty?

Well I have a flight scheduled to LGA Thursday morning to spend the weekend in NYC, the first in 35 years. So the timing would be right to mess with my trip

 

[jasonwx]

I can virtually guarantee a storm. How can I say this with such certainty?

Well I have a flight scheduled to LGA Thursday morning to spend the weekend in NYC, the first in 35 years. So the timing would be right to mess with my trip

 

[NYSkiBlog]

GFS 168

 

[Campgottagopee]

Tree, four " here in CNY.
Hope it stays, it's looking like it will.

 

[tirolski]

Tree, four " here in CNY.
Hope it stays, it's looking like it will.

Gore Arena before daylight.