F Vail

[TonyC]

Column 1: Year
Column 2: My calculation of percent of normal ski area snowfall, US & Canada
Column 3: Kottke Report US skier visits (x 1 million)

07-08​	117%​	60.5
08-09​	105%​	57.4
09-10​	96%​	59.8
10-11​	129%​	60.5
11-12​	80%​	51.0
12-13​	91%​	56.9
13-14​	92%​	56.5
14-15​	73%​	53.6
15-16​	88%​	52.8
16-17​	120%​	54.8
17-18​	93%​	53.3
18-19​	108%​	59.3
19-20​	92%​	51.1
20-21​	83%​	59.0
21-22​	85%​	60.7
22-23​	113%​	65.4

The excellent snow year in 2007-08 and best ever snow year in 2010-11 were the first years over 60 million US skier visits. The next 5 years were not great, but I was surprised that the excellent 2016-17 season fell so short of 60 million.

I suspect it is not coincidental that 2018-19 was the first year of the Ikon Pass. And look how strong attendance was in 2020-21 and 2021-22 despite being subpar snow years. So then add on a very good snow year in 2022-23 and the old records were blown away. I estimate this season at 95% for snowfall, will have real numbers by June.

Recently there was a press poll to guess 2023-24. I chose the 61-63 million range, as it's hard for me to see why it would be any less than 2021-22.

It could be less than that 95% snowfall number would imply due to the early season being so bad. My 97% estimate for the Northeast is even more misleading because it seemed that every good dump was followed within days by rain or thaw.

 

[tirolski]

Column 1: Year
Column 2: My calculation of percent of normal ski area snowfall, US & Canada
Column 3: Kottke Report US

Looked up Kottke Report & found NSAA’s skier visit stats breakdown by region.
Lots of stats here:

Industry Stats

www.nsaa.org

Didn’t see any correlated with regional snowfall though.

My 97% estimate for the Northeast is even more misleading because it seemed that every good dump was followed within days by rain or thaw.

The more recent bump could also be enhanced by the whole flex-work from “home” virtual meetings thingys.

 

[TonyC]

Didn’t see any correlated with regional snowfall though.

I have done that. Since 1979:
Northeast 57%
Pacific Northwest 66%
California 70%
Rockies 17%
The latter number is so low because so much of the business is destination booked far in advance. In the other regions, we locals can ski when it's good and stay home when it's not.

The more recent bump could also be enhanced by the whole flex-work from “home” virtual meetings thingys

.

But the bump started in 2018-19, the season before the pandemic.

 

[Harvey]

Column 1: Year
Column 2: My calculation of percent of normal ski area snowfall, US & Canada
Column 3: Kottke Report US skier visits (x 1 million)

07-08​	117%​	60.5
08-09​	105%​	57.4
09-10​	96%​	59.8
10-11​	129%​	60.5
11-12​	80%​	51.0
12-13​	91%​	56.9
13-14​	92%​	56.5
14-15​	73%​	53.6
15-16​	88%​	52.8
16-17​	120%​	54.8
17-18​	93%​	53.3
18-19​	108%​	59.3
19-20​	92%​	51.1
20-21​	83%​	59.0
21-22​	85%​	60.7
22-23​	113%​	65.4

Based on that data, statistically how close is the correlation between snowfall and visits? Hard to tell at a glance.

 

[tirolski]

Looked up Kottke Report...

Wonder if they’re related to Leo.

The more recent bump could also be enhanced by the whole flex-work from “home” virtual meetings thingys.

The latter number is so low because so much of the business is destination booked far in advance. In the other regions, we locals can ski when it's good and stay home when it's not.

Yup.

But the bump started in 2018-19, the season before the pandemic.

The flex-work virtual tech also came before hand.

 

[TonyC]

The flex-work virtual tech also came before hand.

But gradually, then a sharp increase with the pandemic. 2018-19 looks fairly abrupt vs. the prior 7 seasons, so I think the advent of Ikon is the most important explanation. I agree WFH was a factor in keeping skier visits high during the mediocre 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons.

 

[MarzNC]

But gradually, then a sharp increase with the pandemic. 2018-19 looks fairly abrupt vs. the prior 7 seasons, so I think the advent of Ikon is the most important explanation. I agree WFH was a factor in keeping skier visits high during the mediocre 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons.

In a few regions, the pandemic accelerated the population growth that was in progress by 2016 or 2017. For example, the Salt Lake City, Ogden, and the Denver metropolitan area. Also a factor for Bozeman, Boise, and Bend. The new residents may have impacted 2020-21 and 2021-22 more than Ikon users. There was a segment of Ikon folks who were too nervous about out-of-state travel for quite a while, especially people who lived in the northeast. There were fewer international travelers those two seasons as well. In particular fewer Australians.

 

[TonyC]

the Salt Lake City, Ogden, and the Denver metropolitan area.

Seattle and to some extent Tahoe too. The skier population growth in these areas is the overall driver of US skier visits breaking out of the 2000-2018 plateau. All of the US skier visit growth is coming from the Rockies and 45% of that growth is coming from Utah, where skier visits have increased from 3.0 million in 2001-02 to 7.1 million in 2022-23. Those Denver and Salt Lake locals are nearly all buying Epic or Ikon passes and likely skiing more than they would have before.

 

[MarzNC]

Those Denver and Salt Lake locals are nearly all buying Epic or Ikon passes and likely skiing more than they would have before.

I can understand folks in the Denver metropolitan area getting an Epic pass since there is a regional option that includes several resorts. Wouldn't expect that many would go for Ikon. On the other hand for SLC folks Full Ikon has value, but not Epic since the only Utah resort is Park City.

The SLC locals I know have a 1-resort season pass, with perhaps a Brighton Twilight pass if they are not yet retired. Most of the pass options for LCC/BCC include the Wasatch perk that adds a free mid-week day at other resorts within easy day trip distance of SLC.

 

[Benny Profane]

Seattle and to some extent Tahoe too. The skier population growth in these areas is the overall driver of US skier visits breaking out of the 2000-2018 plateau. All of the US skier visit growth is coming from the Rockies and 45% of that growth is coming from Utah, where skier visits have increased from 3.0 million in 2001-02 to 7.1 million in 2022-23. Those Denver and Salt Lake locals are nearly all buying Epic or Ikon passes and likely skiing more than they would have before.

I wouldn't say that most of that skier growth is local, although a lot of it probably is, of course. SLC is a cheap and easy flight from LA, SF, Phoenix, Seattle, and other places in the growing west, and it's the closest airport to skiing in the west. Even Newark has a direct early flight that can get you on the slopes the same day.