saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1013 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 443 AM EST Thursday...The active weather pattern
continues as we head into the weekend, with another deepening
low tracking to our west over the Great Lakes. This weekend
system will bear similarities to the most recent system that
impacted the region, with the main threats being gusty to strong
winds and accumulating snowfall. As precipitation first reaches
the region, a burst of snowfall can be expected at the start
transitioning to rain/snow mix and rain across most of the
region. Model temperature profiles support the idea that there
may also be some periods of wintry mix and sleet as
precipitation transitions from snow to rain, especially when
compared to this more recent event where a period of sleet was
observed. Current forecast snowfall accumulations suggest 1-3
inches across the Champlain Valley and portions of eastern
Vermont, with 3-7 inches elsewhere and locally higher across the
higher terrain. The biggest question with these amounts will be
how quickly the snow transitions to rain, as well as the
presence of any sleet and mixed precipitation. Widespread
precipitation will taper off to light snow showers by Saturday
evening, especially across northern New York with enhancement
from Lake Ontario. Strong winds are expected with the deepening
low to the west and a strong 850mb jet. Southeast winds between
20 to 30 mph and gusts between 40 and 60 mph are expected, with
locally higher gusts possible along the western slopes of the
Greens. A High Wind Watch was issued for the western slopes of
the Green Mountains due to increasing confidence of strong to
damaging downsloping winds, with additional headlines possible
as we get closer to the system. Some gusty southwesterly winds
will be possible across the St. Lawrence Valley Saturday evening
on the backside of the system.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 443 AM EST Thursday...Behind the departing low pressure system,
chances for scattered snow showers and flurries round out the
weekend and continue into next week. Some lake effect snow showers
may linger across northern New York in the St. Lawrence Valley.
Another system will likely move into the region towards the
beginning half of next week, however there is low confidence
regarding any impacts. Both GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance show no
clear clustering of low tracks, however recent deterministic
guidance shows most impacts staying well to our south. Given the
uncertainty, primarily stuck to the NBM for most of the forecast,
with some scattered snow showers across the region. Temperatures
next week will be near seasonal normals, with highs in the 20s and
overnight lows dropping into the single digits and teens.
1013 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 443 AM EST Thursday...The active weather pattern
continues as we head into the weekend, with another deepening
low tracking to our west over the Great Lakes. This weekend
system will bear similarities to the most recent system that
impacted the region, with the main threats being gusty to strong
winds and accumulating snowfall. As precipitation first reaches
the region, a burst of snowfall can be expected at the start
transitioning to rain/snow mix and rain across most of the
region. Model temperature profiles support the idea that there
may also be some periods of wintry mix and sleet as
precipitation transitions from snow to rain, especially when
compared to this more recent event where a period of sleet was
observed. Current forecast snowfall accumulations suggest 1-3
inches across the Champlain Valley and portions of eastern
Vermont, with 3-7 inches elsewhere and locally higher across the
higher terrain. The biggest question with these amounts will be
how quickly the snow transitions to rain, as well as the
presence of any sleet and mixed precipitation. Widespread
precipitation will taper off to light snow showers by Saturday
evening, especially across northern New York with enhancement
from Lake Ontario. Strong winds are expected with the deepening
low to the west and a strong 850mb jet. Southeast winds between
20 to 30 mph and gusts between 40 and 60 mph are expected, with
locally higher gusts possible along the western slopes of the
Greens. A High Wind Watch was issued for the western slopes of
the Green Mountains due to increasing confidence of strong to
damaging downsloping winds, with additional headlines possible
as we get closer to the system. Some gusty southwesterly winds
will be possible across the St. Lawrence Valley Saturday evening
on the backside of the system.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 443 AM EST Thursday...Behind the departing low pressure system,
chances for scattered snow showers and flurries round out the
weekend and continue into next week. Some lake effect snow showers
may linger across northern New York in the St. Lawrence Valley.
Another system will likely move into the region towards the
beginning half of next week, however there is low confidence
regarding any impacts. Both GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance show no
clear clustering of low tracks, however recent deterministic
guidance shows most impacts staying well to our south. Given the
uncertainty, primarily stuck to the NBM for most of the forecast,
with some scattered snow showers across the region. Temperatures
next week will be near seasonal normals, with highs in the 20s and
overnight lows dropping into the single digits and teens.
