Winter Weather 22/23

[saratogahalfday]

 

[saratogahalfday]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
656 AM EST Thu Mar 2 2023

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 424 AM EST Thursday...

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

Heading into weekend, confidence continues to grow that the region
will see moderate impacts from a winter storm with warning level
snowfall possible. For several days now, we`ve been waiting for
model guidance to come into better agreement with this system, and
unfortunately they have not. For the life cycle of the storm from now
through about 00Z Saturday models are in fairly good agreement
showing a deep upper trough and closed mid/upper level circulation
currently over Arizona tracking into Texas tonight. Surface
cyclogenesis occurs thereafter and the now vertically stacked system
lifts northeast into the Mississippi River Valley Friday morning,
and then into the Ohio Valley by the days end.

Thereafter for Friday night into Saturday 2 camps exist...the
GFS/GDPS and ECMWF/NAM with the main differences being the
strength/track of the mid/upper level low, and whether or not drier
air associated with high pressure over Quebec will suppress
precipitation southward. The ECMWF and NAM solutions continue to
side with a stronger closed mid/upper level low tracking from the
Great Lakes through central/southern new England, while the GFS and
GDPS are more of an open wave with stronger ridging north of the
Canadian border. The exact track of the upper level low and
subsequent development of a secondary surface low will play a large
role in where the heaviest banding of snow will occur, and for now
we`re leaning towards a blend of ensemble guidance given the
uncertainty.

Somewhere is going to get a good thump of snow, as dry low to mid-
level northerly flow from high pressure across Quebec will clash
with a surge of PWATS near the 200th percentile brought northward
from the Gulf of Mexico by a strong low/mid level jet. A sharp QPF
gradient is expected to occur, and we`re currently forecasting
around a half inch across the Canadian border to over an inch in
southern Vermont where the best chances for heavier snowfall are as
a 700mb FGEN band looks to be focused. A complicating factor in the
correlation of this QPF to snowfall will be the snow ratios as
soundings continue to show a high DGZ and strong southeasterly flow
beneath it which may act to shred the crystals apart during the
Friday night timeframe. As the low level jet moves out Saturday,
better ratios will likely be observed, but the general idea is for
lower overall ratios in the 10-12:1 range. This outputs snow totals
from 6-12" north to south, which has prompted the issuance of a
Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday. There are
still plenty of details to work out with this one, and hopefully as
we move into the time range where we will benefit from more
available mesoscale guidance, we can hone in on where the sweet
spots will be.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 424 AM EST Thursday...Early weekend storm pulling out Sunday
with some residual orographic snow shower activity in the
northern mountains dissipating as the day goes on. Some short
term ridging at all levels for Sunday night and most of Monday.
Some return flow warm air advection and weak northern stream
disturbance tracking across/near CWA will bring about another
chance of light snow/snow showers Monday night-Tuesday.

Overall there is a blocking pattern developing with huge ridging
across Central Canada and this weekends storm retrograding slightly
back into the Canadian Maritimes but for now with no consequences
for us except northerly flow and perhaps a weak, moisture starved
disturbances but timing out is really not possible this far
out.

Temperatures through the period will be near seasonable with Highs
in the 30s and lows in the teens/20s.

 

[NYSkiBlog]

 

[tirolski]

Maple Syrup Time

Talked with a dang boarder

 

[jamesdeluxe]

He said he made 7 gallons so far and could bring some for me.

Remind me how many gallons of sap it takes to end up with a gallon of syrup?

 

[jasonwx]

I boiled sap once
Had around 5 gallons ended up with a cup of syrup or so

 

[Ripitz]

Remind me how many gallons of sap it takes to end up with a gallon of syrup?

Generally speaking it’s 40. The sugar content in the sap varies from tree to tree and year to year so it could be more or it could be less. Usually one tap will yield one quart of syrup.

 

[Temp6]

Ive always found these weather channel 48 hour precip maps to be pretty solid.

 

[Harvey]

Ok this is very cool, and not that common any more, especially in March, but it does occasionally happen.

But I haven't seen this in at least a decade:

 

[tirolski]

Accuweather now says the bumps in CNY are calling for 50:50 chance of 8-12” for the storm coming in Friday.
Letitsnow