jasonwx
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Haha
The toaster might have broken.
Winter Weather 22/23
- Thread starter jasonwx
- Start date
The toaster might have broken.
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
122 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will cross the region this afternoon and evening
with a period of rain and snow and possibly a light wintry mix
in some higher elevations. A low pressure system will then move
across the area overnight into early Thursday, bringing another
round of mainly light precipitation. A more widespread and
significant winter storm will be possible Friday into Saturday,
with snow or a wintry mix.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Long term focus is on a potentially significant winter storm through
early Saturday. A compact upper low/negatively tilted shortwave
trough is forecast to lift northeastward from IN/IL to the eastern
Great Lakes during this timeframe, slowing and opening up as it does
so. At the surface, a Miller B type setup is forecast, with the
primary low following roughly the track of the midlevel feature,
while a coastal low emerges offshore of NJ by Saturday morning.
Strong poleward moisture transport is forecast with NAEFS suggesting
+1 to +2 stdev PWAT anomalies into the Northeast, while high
pressure over Quebec funnels in colder air at lower levels. Good
coupled jet signature suggested by the operational models as well to
enhance lift. Appearing likely at this time is a widespread moderate
to heavy precipitation event focusing on the Friday night timeframe,
with enough confidence for categorical PoPs. The actual distribution
of QPF, as well as the p-types, will be impacted by the interplay
between the primary and secondary low as well as terrain effects, so
there are still plenty of details to be worked out. Generally, a
stronger and southward-displaced secondary low would act to lock in
more cold air through the troposphere, resulting in a snowier
solution for more of the area. NBM wx probs were followed with this
forecast, which gives potential for a snow/sleet mix as far north as
the I-90 corridor into southern VT. Areas of freezing rain cannot be
ruled out over the higher terrain south of Albany as well, although
it does not look like a classic setup for a significant freezing rain
event at this time. The airmass is not anomalously cold, so plain
rain is even on the table for areas south of I-90 if the low tracks
far enough north, with some boundary layer warming due to
downsloping easterly winds helping to warm things up a bit.
Probabilities of heavy snowfall are highest north of I-90 where it
is likely that p-type remains all snow. Will continue to highlight
potential for travel impacts in Hazardous Weather Outlook and
decision support briefings.
National Weather Service Albany NY
122 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will cross the region this afternoon and evening
with a period of rain and snow and possibly a light wintry mix
in some higher elevations. A low pressure system will then move
across the area overnight into early Thursday, bringing another
round of mainly light precipitation. A more widespread and
significant winter storm will be possible Friday into Saturday,
with snow or a wintry mix.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Long term focus is on a potentially significant winter storm through
early Saturday. A compact upper low/negatively tilted shortwave
trough is forecast to lift northeastward from IN/IL to the eastern
Great Lakes during this timeframe, slowing and opening up as it does
so. At the surface, a Miller B type setup is forecast, with the
primary low following roughly the track of the midlevel feature,
while a coastal low emerges offshore of NJ by Saturday morning.
Strong poleward moisture transport is forecast with NAEFS suggesting
+1 to +2 stdev PWAT anomalies into the Northeast, while high
pressure over Quebec funnels in colder air at lower levels. Good
coupled jet signature suggested by the operational models as well to
enhance lift. Appearing likely at this time is a widespread moderate
to heavy precipitation event focusing on the Friday night timeframe,
with enough confidence for categorical PoPs. The actual distribution
of QPF, as well as the p-types, will be impacted by the interplay
between the primary and secondary low as well as terrain effects, so
there are still plenty of details to be worked out. Generally, a
stronger and southward-displaced secondary low would act to lock in
more cold air through the troposphere, resulting in a snowier
solution for more of the area. NBM wx probs were followed with this
forecast, which gives potential for a snow/sleet mix as far north as
the I-90 corridor into southern VT. Areas of freezing rain cannot be
ruled out over the higher terrain south of Albany as well, although
it does not look like a classic setup for a significant freezing rain
event at this time. The airmass is not anomalously cold, so plain
rain is even on the table for areas south of I-90 if the low tracks
far enough north, with some boundary layer warming due to
downsloping easterly winds helping to warm things up a bit.
Probabilities of heavy snowfall are highest north of I-90 where it
is likely that p-type remains all snow. Will continue to highlight
potential for travel impacts in Hazardous Weather Outlook and
decision support briefings.
Endoftheline
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2020
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
Right?
Just give us one. This one.
Flatlander420
Active member
- Joined
- Mar 30, 2022
how long will they stay open with that much snow?
might have to start saving for a trip in july
might have to start saving for a trip in july
Endoftheline
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2020
Just saw they reported 600” at the summit. Pallisades Tahoe announced they will be open until June. They are only reporting over 500” though.
