jasonwx
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
I got 6 in Rockland
Winter Weather 22/23
- Thread starter jasonwx
- Start date
NorEaster27
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2020
6 in westchester, storm on fri/sat looks good for the dacks
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1241 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2023
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Tuesday...Heading into the end of the work week and
weekend, the focus of the forecast remains the potential for a more
significant storm to impact the region. Overall, the synoptic
pattern isn`t a whole lot different than what the current storm
(today) looked like 5 days ago where a deepening upper trough on the
west coast Wednesday will look to close off near the 4-corners
region Wednesday night, and eventually track up into the Great Lakes
by Friday night. The associated primary surface low weakens as the
system lifts into southern Canada, while a secondary coastal low
ramps up just inside the benchmark early Saturday. While
precipitation from this system appears likely, exactly where the
heaviest QPF will lie, and the ptype still remain highly uncertain
with little agreement among deterministic medium range guidance.
Once the system reaches the upper air network tonight into
Wednesday, we should see greater model consensus so stay tuned. High
pressure looks to return by Monday.
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1241 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2023
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Tuesday...Heading into the end of the work week and
weekend, the focus of the forecast remains the potential for a more
significant storm to impact the region. Overall, the synoptic
pattern isn`t a whole lot different than what the current storm
(today) looked like 5 days ago where a deepening upper trough on the
west coast Wednesday will look to close off near the 4-corners
region Wednesday night, and eventually track up into the Great Lakes
by Friday night. The associated primary surface low weakens as the
system lifts into southern Canada, while a secondary coastal low
ramps up just inside the benchmark early Saturday. While
precipitation from this system appears likely, exactly where the
heaviest QPF will lie, and the ptype still remain highly uncertain
with little agreement among deterministic medium range guidance.
Once the system reaches the upper air network tonight into
Wednesday, we should see greater model consensus so stay tuned. High
pressure looks to return by Monday.
Endoftheline
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2020
Crazy winter. 2/20 I washed cars in the driveway w no jacket. 2/23 we get 8 or 9 inches by early am and its 14 degrees. By 7 pm it's 36 w a rain snow sleet mix, creating a nice heavy crust layer by 2/24 am at 8 degrees. Sat 2/25 am it's -18 with a high temp of 12. Sunday we get an unforecasted 8" of nice light pow. 2/28 am its 22, picked up a couple inches. By noon,freezing drizzle/rain at 26 degrees then up to 30 w more freezing rain. Another nice layer of crust to ruin any back country shots. Can't catch a break.
Attachments
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
657 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2023
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 357 AM EST Wednesday...Heading into weekend, the main focus of
the forecast remains the potential for a significant winter storm to
impact the region. At this time yesterday we spoke about gaining
greater clarity on the system as the upper level trough would have
arrived on the Pacific coast, and while it has, and was sampled in
the latest upper air observational analysis, the 00Z deterministic
model suite still remains in somewhat disagreement. Overall, the
large-scale synoptic pattern remains the same as yesterday and
there`s good consensus in the guidance showing the upper trough over
the Pacific Coast this morning diving southward tonight into AZ/NM
while closing off. As this feature tracks into Texas Thursday night,
surface cyclogenesis occurs and the now vertically stacked system
begins to lift northeast into the Mississippi River Valley Friday
morning, and the Ohio Valley by the days end.
From 00Z Saturday onward is where models diverge. While there`s
agreement that there will be some sort of secondary low development
along the southern New England coast Friday night, the strength and
position of the aforementioned surface high pressure north of the
Canadian border remains in question. Where the GDPS was the outlier
the past 2 days offering a stronger high and QPF suppressed across
our central/southern zones and southward, the GFS has now jumped on
board while the latest GDPS has trended slightly north. The ECMWF
remains the most northward solution with the heaviest QPF, but it
should be noted the mean of its ensemble members keep it south
across central/southern New England. So what does all this mean?
Well, while confidence is increasing (quite high actually) that the
forecast area will receive precipitation, confidence remains low as
to where the heaviest QPF will occur. The good news is that the
ptype is currently looking like all snow, with the worst case
scenario being some sleet mixing in across southern VT.
Probabilities from blended guidance for >4" of snow are 60-70%, but
for >8" it drops off to 30-40%. A snow storm with minor to moderate
impacts seems likely Friday night through Saturday with our best
first guess being a widespread 5-8" from north to south.
As the system exits, the region should remain under the influence of
the upper trough with west/northwest flow supporting the chance for
additional light snow showers Saturday night into Sunday. By Monday,
however, surface high pressure looks to return.
National Weather Service Burlington VT
657 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2023
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 357 AM EST Wednesday...Heading into weekend, the main focus of
the forecast remains the potential for a significant winter storm to
impact the region. At this time yesterday we spoke about gaining
greater clarity on the system as the upper level trough would have
arrived on the Pacific coast, and while it has, and was sampled in
the latest upper air observational analysis, the 00Z deterministic
model suite still remains in somewhat disagreement. Overall, the
large-scale synoptic pattern remains the same as yesterday and
there`s good consensus in the guidance showing the upper trough over
the Pacific Coast this morning diving southward tonight into AZ/NM
while closing off. As this feature tracks into Texas Thursday night,
surface cyclogenesis occurs and the now vertically stacked system
begins to lift northeast into the Mississippi River Valley Friday
morning, and the Ohio Valley by the days end.
From 00Z Saturday onward is where models diverge. While there`s
agreement that there will be some sort of secondary low development
along the southern New England coast Friday night, the strength and
position of the aforementioned surface high pressure north of the
Canadian border remains in question. Where the GDPS was the outlier
the past 2 days offering a stronger high and QPF suppressed across
our central/southern zones and southward, the GFS has now jumped on
board while the latest GDPS has trended slightly north. The ECMWF
remains the most northward solution with the heaviest QPF, but it
should be noted the mean of its ensemble members keep it south
across central/southern New England. So what does all this mean?
Well, while confidence is increasing (quite high actually) that the
forecast area will receive precipitation, confidence remains low as
to where the heaviest QPF will occur. The good news is that the
ptype is currently looking like all snow, with the worst case
scenario being some sleet mixing in across southern VT.
Probabilities from blended guidance for >4" of snow are 60-70%, but
for >8" it drops off to 30-40%. A snow storm with minor to moderate
impacts seems likely Friday night through Saturday with our best
first guess being a widespread 5-8" from north to south.
As the system exits, the region should remain under the influence of
the upper trough with west/northwest flow supporting the chance for
additional light snow showers Saturday night into Sunday. By Monday,
however, surface high pressure looks to return.
Bumps
Active member
- Joined
- Aug 22, 2020
Patiently standing by for Jason's favorite thing to say.
Thacheronix
Active member
- Joined
- Jul 19, 2020
New avatar could streamline things
