DomB
Well-known member
- Joined
- Aug 25, 2020
Man the cats can't buy a good weekend event this year . . . .
Winter Weather 22/23
- Thread starter jasonwx
- Start date
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
The end of the week looks more interesting than tonight/tomorrow...
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 456 AM EST Monday...Thursday morning predictability
remains fairly low on additional rain/snow as a stronger
shortwave traverse our region. If its timing is synced with a
surface cold front aimed at us, steadier/widespread
precipitation is possible. At this time, chances of
precipitation are highest across southern and eastern Vermont
and any rain mix should trend to snow as colder air aloft
arrives. Quiet and cold weather will briefly settle in Thursday
night with highs a bit below seasonal norms on Friday, generally
near or below freezing.
Then we will watch out for a more potent low pressure system
approaching from our southwest. While low track spread is still
large amongst global model ensembles, consensus has shifted fairly
dramatically from 24 hours ago with the upper air pattern. It
depicts a mature cyclone lifting farther north and west such that
heights are higher out downstream across the Northeast US, which
then leads to secondary east coast cyclogenesis farther north and
west with a track near the southern New England coast. General idea
is that a less intense, but farther north, solution for snowfall has
become more likely. However, caution should still be taken with any
deterministic solution at this point given limited atmospheric
sampling of the system until tomorrow when it is progged to reach
the US west coast. Our forecast, which depicts the most likely
scenario, shows snow in the likely category for all but far northern
areas, Friday night into Saturday, with quickly decreasing chances
by Saturday afternoon. Even with a slower/more amplified scenario,
precipitation appears to push off to our northeast by Saturday night
with dry and seasonable conditions on Sunday.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 456 AM EST Monday...Thursday morning predictability
remains fairly low on additional rain/snow as a stronger
shortwave traverse our region. If its timing is synced with a
surface cold front aimed at us, steadier/widespread
precipitation is possible. At this time, chances of
precipitation are highest across southern and eastern Vermont
and any rain mix should trend to snow as colder air aloft
arrives. Quiet and cold weather will briefly settle in Thursday
night with highs a bit below seasonal norms on Friday, generally
near or below freezing.
Then we will watch out for a more potent low pressure system
approaching from our southwest. While low track spread is still
large amongst global model ensembles, consensus has shifted fairly
dramatically from 24 hours ago with the upper air pattern. It
depicts a mature cyclone lifting farther north and west such that
heights are higher out downstream across the Northeast US, which
then leads to secondary east coast cyclogenesis farther north and
west with a track near the southern New England coast. General idea
is that a less intense, but farther north, solution for snowfall has
become more likely. However, caution should still be taken with any
deterministic solution at this point given limited atmospheric
sampling of the system until tomorrow when it is progged to reach
the US west coast. Our forecast, which depicts the most likely
scenario, shows snow in the likely category for all but far northern
areas, Friday night into Saturday, with quickly decreasing chances
by Saturday afternoon. Even with a slower/more amplified scenario,
precipitation appears to push off to our northeast by Saturday night
with dry and seasonable conditions on Sunday.
For whatever it’s worth the WeatherChannel 10 day for Highmount is talking about a significant snow for Fri/Fri night.
One of the forecast ‘tools’ I canvas, which forecasts Bearpen at 3,600 ft, is calling for upwards of 9 inches tonight/tomorrow, and as much as another 16 inches Friday night into Sat. Of course it may not have factored in the warm air which inevitably always wins? Seem the QPF is there….
NorEaster27
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2020
You need to get this west stuff out of your system, Gore will likely have 20+ inches by Saturday and best conditions in years
Sadly, Jason ends up with the last laugh more often than he ends up with egg on his face…but he’s gonna be wrong this time!
jasonwx
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
I did mention the northern area will do well...the Cats will take it in the shorts...
If the north east ends up with a total of 7 good days this season it will be a lot...The west is out of control this year...short of some brutally cold temps...its been mind blowing...I have been skiing skiing regularly since 77... it's always a battle in the NE
And i'm kicking my self in the ass for not going out west.. I was out voted on a major trip in March..
NorEaster27
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2020
This past weekend was pretty sweet and gore and next weekend almost everything may be in play. Yes out west is crazy and looks to continue, it’s historic
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
I heard Brighton is closing in on, or has already passed, 600 inches. That's insane.
It's too bad the SLC area will be a wasteland soon.
