Winter Weather 22/23
- Thread starter jasonwx
- Start date
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
We all fkd. Saw my first flock of Canada geese heading north.
3dogs
Active member
- Joined
- Dec 5, 2020
Have 10 of them in back yard all winter. Wife has been feeding them, against my advice!
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
700 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move across the region late
this afternoon into this evening resulting in rain showers, gusty
winds, potentially a few rumbles of thunder, and a period of
mountains snow. After a dry start to Wednesday, a period of snow
arrives late afternoon or early evening. Snow continues into the
evening with snow turning moderate to even briefly heavy at times,
mainly north of Interstate 90. Snow then transitions to sleet and
freezing rain overnight into early Thursday as precipitation
diminishes and turns into intermittent showers or drizzle.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
We start off Wednesday dry with partial morning sunshine thanks
to a rather strong high positioned in Ontario, Canada. However,
any morning sun will fade behind increasing clouds as isentropic
lift ahead of the warm front strengthens through the day. Westerly
winds should promote deep boundary layer per forecast soundings
and support rather warm surface high temperatures. Latest
guidance shows highs reaching into the upper 30s to low 40s in
the Hudson Valley with low to mid 30s elsewhere (cooler upper
20s in the southern ADKs and southern Greens). Deep mixing also
looks to result in rather low dew points as well dropping into
the teens and low 20s.
The incoming precipitation shield is expected to advance
from south to north through the afternoon reaching our eastern
Catskill and mid-Hudson Valley areas by 18 - 21 UTC before
progressing northward to the I-90 corridor including the Mohawk
Valley and Greater Capital District by 21 UTC Wed - 00 UTC
Thursday. Given mild initial sfc temperatures, precip may start
as rain in the valley or rain/snow mix in the hill towns;
however, due to the aforementioned low dew points, rain or rain/snow
mix should transition to mainly snow due to wet- bulbing
processes as precipitation intensifies.
In fact, the synoptic and mesoscale set-up favors a laterally
translating band per CSTAR research and guidance supports strong
mid-level FGEN that will likely result in moderate to
potentially even heavy precipitation rates near and after 00 UTC
Thursday. As the thermal profiles cools, most areas should
transition to mainly snow Wednesday evening with moderate to
heavy snow possible for areas from the Mohawk Valley,
Saratoga/Lake George area, southern Adirondacks and southern VT.
Depending how early the strong FGEN and heavy rates arrive, some
impacts the tail end of the Wed evening commute are possible.
Guidance still shows some discrepancies on exactly how long the
intense snowfall (including possibly 0.5 - 1 inch per hour
snowfall rates per the latest HREF guidance) last as the warm
front will be intruding northward rather quickly. The NAM is the
most aggressive with the northward progression of the warm front
and suggest the favorable FGEN and laterally translating band
exits into the North Country by 06 UTC. However, the ECWMF, CMC
and GFS disagrees and suggests the band lingers over areas just
north of I-90 longer. This is likely linked to the fact that
these models are picking up on high pressure strengthening over
Quebec which would limit the northward progression of the
front. High res guidance including the HRRR, HREF and NAM are
much quicker and indicate the most areas switch to a wintry mix
by 06 - 12 UTC. We took a blended approach and kept northern
areas as mainly snow through 06 UTC - 09 UTC with areas south of
I-90 transitioning to sleet and freezing rain during this time.
Exactly when the changeover to a wintry takes place Wed night remain
a challenge as it will be battle between the advancing warm
nose from the mid-Atlantic and strong high pressure over
southern Canada. The "battle zone" or delineation between snow
and wintry mix looks to set-up near or just north of I-90.
With the warm nose rather high in the column (800-700hPa) and a
cold wedge beneath it, a period of mainly sleet is likely once
snow turns to a wintry mix, again mainly for areas just north of
I-90 and points south. Sleet is much more dense than snow and
is difficult to remove/shovel. As the warm nose continues to
intrude overnight, wintry mix should turn to freezing rain as
the cold wedge near the sfc is reinforced by northeast
ageostrophic flow. Plain rain is expected in the mid-Hudson
Valley where milder sfc. Another forecast challenge is a
potential incoming dry slot overnight which could act to shut
off precipitation. Again, deterministic models vary on how far
north the dry slot reaches so for now only reduced POPs to
low end likely and chance in the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT.
By Thursday morning, precipitation should be weakening into
intermittent showers as the best forcing and moisture escapes to
our east. Northern zones (southern ADKS, Upper Hudson Valley
and southern VT) could hang on to snow through 15 UTC before
turning to wintry mix. As the mid-levels dry out, any mix should
turn to mainly intermittent light rain showers. However,
depending on warm sfc temperatures become during the day,
freezing rain could linger, especially in the southern Greens
and northern Berkshires where cold air damming should maintain
the cold wedge. Otherwise, daytime temperatures Thursday warm
up into the mid 40s in the mid-Hudson Valley while cloudy skies
and dreary conditions keep temperatures cooler elsewhere in the
mid to upper 30s.
Snow/sleet total amounts look to range from 4 - 8 inches where
we have a Winter Storm Watch out with 1 to 3 inches in the
winter weather advisory areas (higher amounts 2 - 4 inches near
and north of I-90). Most of the snow/sleet accumulations
expected Wed night. Due to some uncertainty with the placement
of the laterally translating band, we expanded the Winter Storm
Watch into southern VT, northern Saratoga and southern Warren.
Freezing rain accumulations expected to range from a coating up
to a tenth of an inch of ice with up to two tenths in the
southern Greens and northern Berkshires where freezing rain may
linger into daytime Thursday. Winter Weather Advisories were
issued to account for ice accumulations from freezing rain.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
By the start of the extended period, the impactful, winter system of
Wednesday night and Thursday will have significantly weakened and
pushed east out of the forecast area, leaving only a few lake-
enhanced and back-door snow showers mainly in the Western
Adirondacks Friday morning. An isolated snow shower cannot be ruled
out, however, in the Hudson Valley and Lake George-Saratoga Region.
A broad, upper-level shortwave disturbance looks to track
through the Great Lakes region Saturday morning, sending
scattered to isolated, light snow showers into the region by
Saturday afternoon/evening. These showers look to linger through
Sunday before upper-level ridging forces another brief period
of tranquil weather for the start of the work week. Models then
hint at another system that could bring more unsettled weather
starting Tuesday.
&&
National Weather Service Albany NY
700 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move across the region late
this afternoon into this evening resulting in rain showers, gusty
winds, potentially a few rumbles of thunder, and a period of
mountains snow. After a dry start to Wednesday, a period of snow
arrives late afternoon or early evening. Snow continues into the
evening with snow turning moderate to even briefly heavy at times,
mainly north of Interstate 90. Snow then transitions to sleet and
freezing rain overnight into early Thursday as precipitation
diminishes and turns into intermittent showers or drizzle.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
We start off Wednesday dry with partial morning sunshine thanks
to a rather strong high positioned in Ontario, Canada. However,
any morning sun will fade behind increasing clouds as isentropic
lift ahead of the warm front strengthens through the day. Westerly
winds should promote deep boundary layer per forecast soundings
and support rather warm surface high temperatures. Latest
guidance shows highs reaching into the upper 30s to low 40s in
the Hudson Valley with low to mid 30s elsewhere (cooler upper
20s in the southern ADKs and southern Greens). Deep mixing also
looks to result in rather low dew points as well dropping into
the teens and low 20s.
The incoming precipitation shield is expected to advance
from south to north through the afternoon reaching our eastern
Catskill and mid-Hudson Valley areas by 18 - 21 UTC before
progressing northward to the I-90 corridor including the Mohawk
Valley and Greater Capital District by 21 UTC Wed - 00 UTC
Thursday. Given mild initial sfc temperatures, precip may start
as rain in the valley or rain/snow mix in the hill towns;
however, due to the aforementioned low dew points, rain or rain/snow
mix should transition to mainly snow due to wet- bulbing
processes as precipitation intensifies.
In fact, the synoptic and mesoscale set-up favors a laterally
translating band per CSTAR research and guidance supports strong
mid-level FGEN that will likely result in moderate to
potentially even heavy precipitation rates near and after 00 UTC
Thursday. As the thermal profiles cools, most areas should
transition to mainly snow Wednesday evening with moderate to
heavy snow possible for areas from the Mohawk Valley,
Saratoga/Lake George area, southern Adirondacks and southern VT.
Depending how early the strong FGEN and heavy rates arrive, some
impacts the tail end of the Wed evening commute are possible.
Guidance still shows some discrepancies on exactly how long the
intense snowfall (including possibly 0.5 - 1 inch per hour
snowfall rates per the latest HREF guidance) last as the warm
front will be intruding northward rather quickly. The NAM is the
most aggressive with the northward progression of the warm front
and suggest the favorable FGEN and laterally translating band
exits into the North Country by 06 UTC. However, the ECWMF, CMC
and GFS disagrees and suggests the band lingers over areas just
north of I-90 longer. This is likely linked to the fact that
these models are picking up on high pressure strengthening over
Quebec which would limit the northward progression of the
front. High res guidance including the HRRR, HREF and NAM are
much quicker and indicate the most areas switch to a wintry mix
by 06 - 12 UTC. We took a blended approach and kept northern
areas as mainly snow through 06 UTC - 09 UTC with areas south of
I-90 transitioning to sleet and freezing rain during this time.
Exactly when the changeover to a wintry takes place Wed night remain
a challenge as it will be battle between the advancing warm
nose from the mid-Atlantic and strong high pressure over
southern Canada. The "battle zone" or delineation between snow
and wintry mix looks to set-up near or just north of I-90.
With the warm nose rather high in the column (800-700hPa) and a
cold wedge beneath it, a period of mainly sleet is likely once
snow turns to a wintry mix, again mainly for areas just north of
I-90 and points south. Sleet is much more dense than snow and
is difficult to remove/shovel. As the warm nose continues to
intrude overnight, wintry mix should turn to freezing rain as
the cold wedge near the sfc is reinforced by northeast
ageostrophic flow. Plain rain is expected in the mid-Hudson
Valley where milder sfc. Another forecast challenge is a
potential incoming dry slot overnight which could act to shut
off precipitation. Again, deterministic models vary on how far
north the dry slot reaches so for now only reduced POPs to
low end likely and chance in the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT.
By Thursday morning, precipitation should be weakening into
intermittent showers as the best forcing and moisture escapes to
our east. Northern zones (southern ADKS, Upper Hudson Valley
and southern VT) could hang on to snow through 15 UTC before
turning to wintry mix. As the mid-levels dry out, any mix should
turn to mainly intermittent light rain showers. However,
depending on warm sfc temperatures become during the day,
freezing rain could linger, especially in the southern Greens
and northern Berkshires where cold air damming should maintain
the cold wedge. Otherwise, daytime temperatures Thursday warm
up into the mid 40s in the mid-Hudson Valley while cloudy skies
and dreary conditions keep temperatures cooler elsewhere in the
mid to upper 30s.
Snow/sleet total amounts look to range from 4 - 8 inches where
we have a Winter Storm Watch out with 1 to 3 inches in the
winter weather advisory areas (higher amounts 2 - 4 inches near
and north of I-90). Most of the snow/sleet accumulations
expected Wed night. Due to some uncertainty with the placement
of the laterally translating band, we expanded the Winter Storm
Watch into southern VT, northern Saratoga and southern Warren.
Freezing rain accumulations expected to range from a coating up
to a tenth of an inch of ice with up to two tenths in the
southern Greens and northern Berkshires where freezing rain may
linger into daytime Thursday. Winter Weather Advisories were
issued to account for ice accumulations from freezing rain.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
By the start of the extended period, the impactful, winter system of
Wednesday night and Thursday will have significantly weakened and
pushed east out of the forecast area, leaving only a few lake-
enhanced and back-door snow showers mainly in the Western
Adirondacks Friday morning. An isolated snow shower cannot be ruled
out, however, in the Hudson Valley and Lake George-Saratoga Region.
A broad, upper-level shortwave disturbance looks to track
through the Great Lakes region Saturday morning, sending
scattered to isolated, light snow showers into the region by
Saturday afternoon/evening. These showers look to linger through
Sunday before upper-level ridging forces another brief period
of tranquil weather for the start of the work week. Models then
hint at another system that could bring more unsettled weather
starting Tuesday.
&&
jamesdeluxe
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 17, 2020
That's the @jasonwx we all recognize!
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
