Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
.LONG TERM /
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 347 AM EST Friday...
Our next system arrives late Monday night
into Tues associated with elongated double barrel low
pres structure
with
shear apart 700 to 500mb s/w energy.
These systems are always
tricky in terms of placement of highest qpf/snowfall, as many times
best precip splits our cwa either to the north and west associated
with the initial s/w energy/sfc low pres, while secondary maximum
occurs to our south and east associated with developing coastal
system and our cwa is left in a relative minimum. The general idea
of
likely to cat
pops lifting from southwest to northeast
acrs our
cwa on Monday night into Tues looks reasonable associated with
initial
surge of mid
lvl moisture/lift. Given southeast 850mb winds
of 35 to 45 knots,
would expect some downslope shadowing along the
western slopes, which is showing up in the
GFS qpf. Also, have
started to
note a sharp cutoff in deep moisture lifting quickly from
sw to ne acrs our cwa on Tues aftn/evening associated with potential
dry slot, which wl need to be watched, as ridging builds. Given how
this winter has unfolded my initial thoughts would be mainly an
advisory level type event with maybe low end
warning for se upslope
areas of the southern/central Greens. Plenty of time for system to
evolve and become better sampled in the days ahead. I would
anticipate guidance to become better locked on a solution this
weekend, along with the finer details of wind speeds/direction and
potential impacts on precip fields. Otherwise, temps
wl run near
normal for early to mid week with highs mid 20s to mid 30s and lows
mainly in the mid teens to mid 20s.