Winter Weather 21/22

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NWS ALY

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Thursday night into Friday...There remains spread in the guidance
but some of the medium range deterministic models, such as the 12Z
ECMWF and ICON as well as some of the GEFS and NAEFS members are
showing a notable wave producing accumulating snow across the
region. While others like the 12Z GFS and CMC/GDPS are showing an
unphased pattern where any disturbance remains mostly south of the
region and limited impact. The 12Z GEFS mean/WPC guidance and the
12Z ECMWF continue to show enough confidence for a period of likely
PoPs for snowfall Thu night into Friday. This is a potent
disturbance with strong low to mid level FGEN possible, as it moves
northeast of eastern NC towards eastern Long Island and southeast
New England by 12Z/FRI. Strong differential thermal advection ahead
of the wave and its warm front could produce light to moderate
amounts of snow, but we will await better agreement before placing
in the HWO. The wave accelerates away by Fri pm with scattered snow
showers with the upper low and the deepening waves deformation zone.
Lows will be in the teens and 20s, and highs will be mainly in the
20s to lower and spotty mid 30s over the southeast extreme.
 
Currently (9:33 pm EST 1/1/22) waiting on 8+ inches of Nort Cuntry Pow (according to the marble mouthed tv weather guy, other estimates are less). Whiteface and Titus should make out--Skiology Matt sez so. But nary a flake has fallen yet--and there have already been so many disappointments this ski season (best skiing in fall, not winter IMHO so far) and all so sad, really, for 8 inches (insert climate change discussion) but still...something white and slidy! @Warp daddy report your driveway results as soon as you can! Monday, if you like being frozen, should be good. So stoked because I think we have/retain a meager (but durable) base of frozen jizz from before Xmas. Go go go!!!!
 
Snow is just starting here at 9 pm, we 'll see what morning brings
 
Havent started to plow yet , looked outside meh ...after 12 hrs of snowing so far maybe 4 inches . It is still tinkling and will till 1 pm ish . Certainly no North Country winter so far .?
 
NWS ALY

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Dry slot likely spreads into the area for Thursday, so will carry a
mostly dry forecast. Highs expected to be back near normal in the
mid-20s to upper 30s. The baroclinic zone does not stray far to the
east, as the initial system flattens out and upstream height falls
occur due to another digging trough. This should result in a strong
southwesterly jet configuration in our area, with the forecast area
being on the cold side for once. The digging trough is forecast to
assume a negative tilt as it sweeps toward the Eastern Seaboard
Thursday into Friday. A cyclone is likely to develop along the
strong baroclinic zone ahead of this trough. Model spread remains
high as to the track of the cyclone as the energy is still back in
the North Pacific at this time. GEFS mean track is roughly from the
Outer Banks to 40N/70W 06-18Z Fri. Not a whole lot more to say other
than possible impacts range from widespread accumulating snow
(possibly heavy) Thursday night into Friday, to an offshore storm
whose impacts will miss us. 00z.02 ECMWF/GFS offer depictions of
each of these solutions, respectively. A track west enough to bring
mixed precip to a significant portion of the forecast area appears
unlikely at this time. NBM PoPs have gone down a bit since last
night at this time, so we will watch to see if this trend continues.
Will carry mainly chance PoPs at this time.
 
Update just cranked up the Ariens , plowed 4 inches of really nice powder here for 40 minutes , so if there is a base it should be good tomorrow .

It is still snowing so maybe another couple by late afternoon
 
NWS ALY

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Busy weather pattern upcoming for the long term period with an
active jet stream and multiple shortwaves to monitor. Enough cold
air is finally in place that we could see a light to potentially
moderate snow accumulation towards the end of the work week,
depending on the exact storm track. Read on for details.

The period from Thursday night into Friday will be the main
highlight of the long term as all eyes remain on a potential coastal
storm. A southern stream shortwave trough digs into the Ohio Valley
and becomes negatively tilted, resulting in a tightening baroclinic
zone downstream over the mid-Atlantic. As a result, a surface
cyclone develops and intensifies thanks to a duel jet structure in
place over the Canadian Maritimes and the mid-Atlantic. With high
pressure in place over northern Quebec, there should be sufficient
cold air over much of the Northeast to support mainly snow, assuming
the storm track stays along or just off the Eastern Seaboard. The
ECWMF and CMC are in rather good agreement showing the low tracking
just inside the 40N/70W benchmark which is generally favorable for
the deformation zone northwest of the low to spread into much of
eastern NY/western New England. While the GFS has a similar 500hPa
pattern to the ECWMF and CMC but the baroclinic zone is much farther
south/east actually off the East Coast. Therefore, the developing
low stays well off shore. Given this event is still over four days
away, we still need to monitor trends and ensembles therefore
limited POPs to chance from Thursday night through Friday. There has
been run to run consistency on the ECMWF and the CMC also supporting
its output, this is becoming a moderately confident forecast.
 
NYSkiBlog said:
NWS ALY

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Busy weather pattern upcoming for the long term period with an
active jet stream and multiple shortwaves to monitor. Enough cold
air is finally in place that we could see a light to potentially
moderate snow accumulation towards the end of the work week,
depending on the exact storm track. Read on for details.

The period from Thursday night into Friday will be the main
highlight of the long term as all eyes remain on a potential coastal
storm. A southern stream shortwave trough digs into the Ohio Valley
and becomes negatively tilted, resulting in a tightening baroclinic
zone downstream over the mid-Atlantic. As a result, a surface
cyclone develops and intensifies thanks to a duel jet structure in
place over the Canadian Maritimes and the mid-Atlantic. With high
pressure in place over northern Quebec, there should be sufficient
cold air over much of the Northeast to support mainly snow, assuming
the storm track stays along or just off the Eastern Seaboard. The
ECWMF and CMC are in rather good agreement showing the low tracking
just inside the 40N/70W benchmark which is generally favorable for
the deformation zone northwest of the low to spread into much of
eastern NY/western New England. While the GFS has a similar 500hPa
pattern to the ECWMF and CMC but the baroclinic zone is much farther
south/east actually off the East Coast. Therefore, the developing
low stays well off shore. Given this event is still over four days
away, we still need to monitor trends and ensembles therefore
limited POPs to chance from Thursday night through Friday. There has
been run to run consistency on the ECMWF and the CMC also supporting
its output, this is becoming a moderately confident forecast.
Click to expand...
as of now the gfs has killed this events for 2 runs in a row
 
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I'm not seeing it in the GFS snowfall map either.
 
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