jasonwx
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
most numerical weather models are run every 12hrs ..
0z is 7pm est or midnight at 0 degs longitude
12z is 7am est
Winter Weather 21/22
- Thread starter JTG
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0z is 7pm est or midnight at 0 degs longitude
12z is 7am est
TheGreatAbyss
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 23, 2020
Usually snow-forecast over predicts these events but I'm not seeing anything at all:
I guess the GFS still isn't predicting this thing? Oddly my Accuweather app is.
I guess the GFS still isn't predicting this thing? Oddly my Accuweather app is.
- Joined
- Jul 15, 2020
Right/ GFS has it out to sea.
ETA: Looks at this moment that the GFS is winning.
Last edited:
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
We deserve this
TheGreatAbyss
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 23, 2020
How do you know that?Right/ GFS has it out to sea.
ETA: Looks at this moment that the GFS is winning.
- Joined
- Jul 15, 2020
It seems the ECMWF and GEM most recently moved the storm track east. Not as far east as the GFS, but east.
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
NWS ALY
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main highlight of the long term period remains on the Thursday night
into Friday potential coastal disturbance. There remains
uncertainty in the exact storm track but decided there was enough
confidence to start mentioning it in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Upstream, we will be closely monitoring a potent southern stream
shortwave trough digging into the Gulf Coast States with a weaker
northern stream shortwave slightly out of phase behind it tracking
through the Upper Great Plains. The ECMWF and CMC continue to be
closely in lined suggesting the southern stream shortwave becomes
neutrally to even slightly negatively tilted by the time it tracks
towards the Carolinas. The GFS, on the other hand, is still the
outlier suggesting the southern stream wave stays flat. As a result
of these differences, the ECWMF and CMC still favor cyclogenesis
occurring off the Carolina Coast in the vicinity of the baroclinc
zone leftover from Thursday`s cold front as the southern stream wave
becomes negatively tilted and partially phases with the northern
stream shortwave. The GFS keeps the wave flat with cyclogenesis
occurring well off shore and missing most of the Northeast. Only the
weak northern stream shortwave moves through the area.
There has been decent run to run consistency between the CMC and
ECMWF (although both pieces of guidance trended slightly south/east
now tracking the low over the 40N/70W benchmark farther than
slightly inland) while the GFS has show much more variation with
some runs showing the low closer to the coast and others keeping it
well out to sea. The latest GEFS show some members clustering near
the the ECMWF and CMC track while others are out to see. With the
GFS and GEFS still showing considerable spread, we favored the ECMWF
and CMC solution and gave us confidence to continue mentioning
chance and even likely POPs Thurs night through Friday. Luckily, the
Thursday cold front will usher in enough cold air that the p-type
will likely be all snow. Should the low track over the 40N/70W bench
march, that would keep the bulk of the precip shield closer to the I-
95 corridor rather than directly overhead. It's worth noting that
guidance still shows a duel jet structure developing, providing
strong forcing for ascent and potential for the low to quickly
strengthen (possibly becoming a bomb cyclone) as it tracks up the
East Coast towards the Canadian Maritimes.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main highlight of the long term period remains on the Thursday night
into Friday potential coastal disturbance. There remains
uncertainty in the exact storm track but decided there was enough
confidence to start mentioning it in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Upstream, we will be closely monitoring a potent southern stream
shortwave trough digging into the Gulf Coast States with a weaker
northern stream shortwave slightly out of phase behind it tracking
through the Upper Great Plains. The ECMWF and CMC continue to be
closely in lined suggesting the southern stream shortwave becomes
neutrally to even slightly negatively tilted by the time it tracks
towards the Carolinas. The GFS, on the other hand, is still the
outlier suggesting the southern stream wave stays flat. As a result
of these differences, the ECWMF and CMC still favor cyclogenesis
occurring off the Carolina Coast in the vicinity of the baroclinc
zone leftover from Thursday`s cold front as the southern stream wave
becomes negatively tilted and partially phases with the northern
stream shortwave. The GFS keeps the wave flat with cyclogenesis
occurring well off shore and missing most of the Northeast. Only the
weak northern stream shortwave moves through the area.
There has been decent run to run consistency between the CMC and
ECMWF (although both pieces of guidance trended slightly south/east
now tracking the low over the 40N/70W benchmark farther than
slightly inland) while the GFS has show much more variation with
some runs showing the low closer to the coast and others keeping it
well out to sea. The latest GEFS show some members clustering near
the the ECMWF and CMC track while others are out to see. With the
GFS and GEFS still showing considerable spread, we favored the ECMWF
and CMC solution and gave us confidence to continue mentioning
chance and even likely POPs Thurs night through Friday. Luckily, the
Thursday cold front will usher in enough cold air that the p-type
will likely be all snow. Should the low track over the 40N/70W bench
march, that would keep the bulk of the precip shield closer to the I-
95 corridor rather than directly overhead. It's worth noting that
guidance still shows a duel jet structure developing, providing
strong forcing for ascent and potential for the low to quickly
strengthen (possibly becoming a bomb cyclone) as it tracks up the
East Coast towards the Canadian Maritimes.
wonderpony
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 24, 2020
The temps on my local forecast keep dropping. I just got back from a walk and didn't wear a hat. That was a mistake. 14, and windchill of -1. At the very least, it looks like GP can be making snow through Saturday night, with the possible exception of Wednesday afternoon.
Haven’t had one of those in a while.
Careful what ya wish for.
Snow making temps and lake effects are much less harmful.
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