Campgottagopee
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- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
Winter Weather 21/22
- Thread starter JTG
- Start date
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NYSkiBlog
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1252 PM EST Thu Mar 10 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Sunshine mixed with clouds this afternoon and milder
temperatures. It will remain dry and seasonable for tonight into
Friday. A strong storm system will begin impacting the region on
Friday night, with some rain, which will being mixing with snow across
northern and high terrain areas. All areas will see a changeover from
rain to snow on Saturday before snow tapers to snow showers on Saturday
evening, along with gusty winds. After a chilly day on Sunday, milder
temperatures are expected for much of next week, with mainly dry conditions.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A large storm system will impact heading towards the area for
Friday night into Saturday. Two separate shortwave (one within
the northern stream and another within the southern stream) will
be heading eastward on Friday night. These features will be
phasing over the mid Atlantic and Northeast for Saturday. In
response, low pressure will be developing on Friday night over
the southern Appalachians and mid Atlantic and will be tracking
across New Jersey, Long Island and New England for Saturday.
Initially, our area will be under the influence of southerly
flow ahead of the approaching storm system. Surface temps will
be in the mid to upper 30s for many areas on Friday evening, but
will be starting to wet-bulb as a band of light precipitation
ahead of the northern stream feature approaches for late Friday
into Friday night. The Adirondacks should quickly cool enough to
go over to snow rather quickly, however, the remainder of the
area will be seeing light rain or a light rain/snow mix for much
of Friday night. Precip on Friday night will mainly be on the
light side and generally limited to areas north/west of the
Capital Region. Precip intensity may start to pick up across
the Adirondacks for the late night hours.
As a surface boundary crosses the area for late Friday night
into Saturday morning, the flow will shift to the west and
cooler air (both at the surface and aloft) will be rushing into
the area. This will be allowing for a changeover from rain to
snow for during the day on Saturday. As the surface low gets
closer to the area and passes by to the east, precipitation will
get steadier and heavier by Sat afternoon. Some mesoscale
banding is likely to occur on the western side of the storm, as
strong frontogenesis is expected due to the rapidly deepening
low. As precip changes over from rain to snow, the snow could
fall heavy and quickly from Saturday late morning through
Saturday late afternoon.
There still is a question to just how quickly the cold air
rushes in and where the storm tracks. A track further to the
west would limit the better snow accumulation to just the
Adirondacks, while a track further east would allow for a
moderate to heavy snowfall for much of eastern NY and into the
high terrain of western New England. Models seem to be trending
towards the eastern track at this time, but there still is a lot
of spread within the ensemble guidance. QPF is still uncertain
as well, as any mesoscale banding will also determine how much
snowfall occurs. As of right now, best confidence is for the
western and high terrain areas, so a Winter Storm Watch has been
issues for the Adirondacks, western/central Mohawk Valley,
Schoharie County and Southern Greens, where 6 to 15 inches are
possible. However, moderate- heavy snowfall could also occur
into the Catskills, Lake George- Saratoga areas and possibly
even western/northern parts of the Capital Region, so an
expansion of the Watch may be needed. Snow rates could be
exceeding one inch per hour within any banding that occurs,
which will make for very difficult travel on Saturday.
As the storm rapidly deepens and lifts towards the Gulf of
Maine, strong gusty winds are expected for Sat afternoon into
Sat night. Some gusts may exceed 35 mph, which could allow for
some blowing of snow (although some of the snow may be rather
wet in character, so the extent of blowing/drifting is somewhat
uncertain as well). Precip will be tapering off to snow showers
for Sat evening into Saturday night as temps fall into the
single digits and teens. The combination of chilly temps and
gusty winds could allow for some wind chill values to reach
below zero, especially in the high terrain.
National Weather Service Albany NY
1252 PM EST Thu Mar 10 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Sunshine mixed with clouds this afternoon and milder
temperatures. It will remain dry and seasonable for tonight into
Friday. A strong storm system will begin impacting the region on
Friday night, with some rain, which will being mixing with snow across
northern and high terrain areas. All areas will see a changeover from
rain to snow on Saturday before snow tapers to snow showers on Saturday
evening, along with gusty winds. After a chilly day on Sunday, milder
temperatures are expected for much of next week, with mainly dry conditions.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A large storm system will impact heading towards the area for
Friday night into Saturday. Two separate shortwave (one within
the northern stream and another within the southern stream) will
be heading eastward on Friday night. These features will be
phasing over the mid Atlantic and Northeast for Saturday. In
response, low pressure will be developing on Friday night over
the southern Appalachians and mid Atlantic and will be tracking
across New Jersey, Long Island and New England for Saturday.
Initially, our area will be under the influence of southerly
flow ahead of the approaching storm system. Surface temps will
be in the mid to upper 30s for many areas on Friday evening, but
will be starting to wet-bulb as a band of light precipitation
ahead of the northern stream feature approaches for late Friday
into Friday night. The Adirondacks should quickly cool enough to
go over to snow rather quickly, however, the remainder of the
area will be seeing light rain or a light rain/snow mix for much
of Friday night. Precip on Friday night will mainly be on the
light side and generally limited to areas north/west of the
Capital Region. Precip intensity may start to pick up across
the Adirondacks for the late night hours.
As a surface boundary crosses the area for late Friday night
into Saturday morning, the flow will shift to the west and
cooler air (both at the surface and aloft) will be rushing into
the area. This will be allowing for a changeover from rain to
snow for during the day on Saturday. As the surface low gets
closer to the area and passes by to the east, precipitation will
get steadier and heavier by Sat afternoon. Some mesoscale
banding is likely to occur on the western side of the storm, as
strong frontogenesis is expected due to the rapidly deepening
low. As precip changes over from rain to snow, the snow could
fall heavy and quickly from Saturday late morning through
Saturday late afternoon.
There still is a question to just how quickly the cold air
rushes in and where the storm tracks. A track further to the
west would limit the better snow accumulation to just the
Adirondacks, while a track further east would allow for a
moderate to heavy snowfall for much of eastern NY and into the
high terrain of western New England. Models seem to be trending
towards the eastern track at this time, but there still is a lot
of spread within the ensemble guidance. QPF is still uncertain
as well, as any mesoscale banding will also determine how much
snowfall occurs. As of right now, best confidence is for the
western and high terrain areas, so a Winter Storm Watch has been
issues for the Adirondacks, western/central Mohawk Valley,
Schoharie County and Southern Greens, where 6 to 15 inches are
possible. However, moderate- heavy snowfall could also occur
into the Catskills, Lake George- Saratoga areas and possibly
even western/northern parts of the Capital Region, so an
expansion of the Watch may be needed. Snow rates could be
exceeding one inch per hour within any banding that occurs,
which will make for very difficult travel on Saturday.
As the storm rapidly deepens and lifts towards the Gulf of
Maine, strong gusty winds are expected for Sat afternoon into
Sat night. Some gusts may exceed 35 mph, which could allow for
some blowing of snow (although some of the snow may be rather
wet in character, so the extent of blowing/drifting is somewhat
uncertain as well). Precip will be tapering off to snow showers
for Sat evening into Saturday night as temps fall into the
single digits and teens. The combination of chilly temps and
gusty winds could allow for some wind chill values to reach
below zero, especially in the high terrain.
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1240 PM EST Thu Mar 10 2022
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 AM EST Thursday...A surface low pressure system will begin
to form near the Mississippi Delta Friday night and will rapidly
intensify as it tracks to coastal New England Saturday afternoon. A
broad deformation axis looks to set up along a corridor extending
from the the Ark-La-Tex region all the way up to the St. Lawrence
Valley late Friday night and will bring light snow to much of
northern New York. This axis will shift eastward slightly into
northwest Vermont after midnight with light snow spreading eastward.
However, this deformation axis will begin to fall apart as energy
begins to shift toward the rapidly intensifying low pressure system
over the east coast.
By daybreak on Saturday, we will see snow continuing across northern
New York and the northern half of Vermont with minor snow
accumulations occurring during this time. It won`t be until closer to
noon that we see snowfall rates pick up as the surface low tracks
across Connecticut and Rhode Island. The northwest side of
extratropical lows is the place to be if you are looking for heavy
snow as this tends to be the axis of best frontogenesis. This case
is no exception as both layer frontogenesis from 850 to 700 mb (and
higher!) is pretty much off the charts. From noon through 6 or 7 PM
on Saturday snowfall rates will likely exceed an inch/hour with
upwards to 2 inches/hour possible across central and northern
Vermont as well as portions of northern New York.
Southern Vermont will be a very challenging situation but thankfully
not due to a mix of freezing or any other type of wintry mix.
Boundary layer temperatures will remain marginal through much of the
day across western Windsor County, mainly the Connecticut River
Valley. This will likely yield a rain/snow mix through the morning
and early afternoon hours before ultimately switching to snow as
dynamic cooling aloft allows temperatures to steadily fall. We have
gone well below guidance for temperatures by using the 25% of the
NBM to account for the dynamic cooling but it wouldn`t be surprising
if southern Vermont may switch to snow quicker than expected given
the strong dynamics at play with this system.
The biggest concern for the snow on Saturday will come down to snow
ratios. Southern Vermont will likely see 5:1 to 10:1 snow ratios
through much of the day before climbing closer to 18:1 by the time
snow ends. This could yield 3-5 inches of very dense snow which
begins to create problems for utilities. Even across the remainder
of Vermont and northern New York we could see 3-5 inches of wet snow
during the onset of the snow given the marginal boundary layer
temperatures and well above normal PWATs. When all is said and done,
8-14 inches of snow looks likely across much of the region with
southern Vermont seeing closer to 3-8 inches given the marginal
boundary layer temperatures. Given these snow totals and potential
impacts to utilities, we have gone ahead and issued a winter storm
watch for all of the North Country from Friday night through
Saturday night.
Once precipitation begins to taper off Saturday night, we will see
winds quickly increase with a strong pressure gradient setting up
over the region as he surface low continues to strengthen as it
shifts eastward and high pressure quickly builds across the region.
This isallobaric push isn`t as strong as past model runs given the
slightly weaker surface low solution but widespread gusts in the 25-
40 mph range appear likely Saturday night through Sunday morning.
This will yield blowing snow which could significantly reduce
visibilities across the region. In addition, if we get the
anticipated wet snow, these gusty winds could add further stress to
utilities and lead to power outages. We will have to monitor this
closely in subsequent forecasts as widespread impacts are possible.
Everything begins to quiet down Sunday afternoon with winds
weakening as high pressure situates across the region. Any lingering
mountain snow showers Sunday morning should end around noon or
slightly thereafter.
1240 PM EST Thu Mar 10 2022
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 AM EST Thursday...A surface low pressure system will begin
to form near the Mississippi Delta Friday night and will rapidly
intensify as it tracks to coastal New England Saturday afternoon. A
broad deformation axis looks to set up along a corridor extending
from the the Ark-La-Tex region all the way up to the St. Lawrence
Valley late Friday night and will bring light snow to much of
northern New York. This axis will shift eastward slightly into
northwest Vermont after midnight with light snow spreading eastward.
However, this deformation axis will begin to fall apart as energy
begins to shift toward the rapidly intensifying low pressure system
over the east coast.
By daybreak on Saturday, we will see snow continuing across northern
New York and the northern half of Vermont with minor snow
accumulations occurring during this time. It won`t be until closer to
noon that we see snowfall rates pick up as the surface low tracks
across Connecticut and Rhode Island. The northwest side of
extratropical lows is the place to be if you are looking for heavy
snow as this tends to be the axis of best frontogenesis. This case
is no exception as both layer frontogenesis from 850 to 700 mb (and
higher!) is pretty much off the charts. From noon through 6 or 7 PM
on Saturday snowfall rates will likely exceed an inch/hour with
upwards to 2 inches/hour possible across central and northern
Vermont as well as portions of northern New York.
Southern Vermont will be a very challenging situation but thankfully
not due to a mix of freezing or any other type of wintry mix.
Boundary layer temperatures will remain marginal through much of the
day across western Windsor County, mainly the Connecticut River
Valley. This will likely yield a rain/snow mix through the morning
and early afternoon hours before ultimately switching to snow as
dynamic cooling aloft allows temperatures to steadily fall. We have
gone well below guidance for temperatures by using the 25% of the
NBM to account for the dynamic cooling but it wouldn`t be surprising
if southern Vermont may switch to snow quicker than expected given
the strong dynamics at play with this system.
The biggest concern for the snow on Saturday will come down to snow
ratios. Southern Vermont will likely see 5:1 to 10:1 snow ratios
through much of the day before climbing closer to 18:1 by the time
snow ends. This could yield 3-5 inches of very dense snow which
begins to create problems for utilities. Even across the remainder
of Vermont and northern New York we could see 3-5 inches of wet snow
during the onset of the snow given the marginal boundary layer
temperatures and well above normal PWATs. When all is said and done,
8-14 inches of snow looks likely across much of the region with
southern Vermont seeing closer to 3-8 inches given the marginal
boundary layer temperatures. Given these snow totals and potential
impacts to utilities, we have gone ahead and issued a winter storm
watch for all of the North Country from Friday night through
Saturday night.
Once precipitation begins to taper off Saturday night, we will see
winds quickly increase with a strong pressure gradient setting up
over the region as he surface low continues to strengthen as it
shifts eastward and high pressure quickly builds across the region.
This isallobaric push isn`t as strong as past model runs given the
slightly weaker surface low solution but widespread gusts in the 25-
40 mph range appear likely Saturday night through Sunday morning.
This will yield blowing snow which could significantly reduce
visibilities across the region. In addition, if we get the
anticipated wet snow, these gusty winds could add further stress to
utilities and lead to power outages. We will have to monitor this
closely in subsequent forecasts as widespread impacts are possible.
Everything begins to quiet down Sunday afternoon with winds
weakening as high pressure situates across the region. Any lingering
mountain snow showers Sunday morning should end around noon or
slightly thereafter.
Harvey
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 15, 2020
This makes me chuckle.
I love how the NWS weather guys/gals speak to us fringe crazies, the 5% who live for some bombo.
A-Basin this past Saturday? Wish I had known, would have been good to hook up. From Friday night to Tuesday they only 4 inches, so you didn’t miss much. Copper got 6 or so from Sun am to Monday. So there really was no big snow….although it skied bigger than the totals!BTW JTG - I was at Copper last Thurs/Fri, and Abay last Sat/Sun, seems like we overlapped. Sadly I missed the big snow that you got right after I left
TheGreatAbyss
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 23, 2020
I spent Saturday in the hike back terrain of Beavers and Steep Gullies. We probably passed each other somewhere! I’ll be at WF Sat-Mon. Have fun at Platty.
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
Watch for wraparound LE sat night for CNY
This is looking good
This is looking good
- Status
