Winter Weather 21/22

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
621 AM EST Wed Mar 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

An area of low pressure will move off the mid-Atlantic coast
today bringing widespread light snow. Some rain may mix in
across valley locations with accumulations expected to be mainly
on non-paved surfaces. High pressure will bring mainly dry
weather on Thursday and Friday with temperatures running
slightly above normal. A potent storm system is expected to
bring periods of rain, snow and strong winds to the region late
Friday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 8 am to 11 pm this
evening for the eastern Catskills and Litchfield County

Temperatures above 1000 feet will be supportive enough for all
snow and some possible slippery travel, especially in times of
more moderate snowfall rates. The Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect for the eastern Catskills and Litchfield
County. Below 1000 feet, temperatures look to rise to the low to
perhaps upper 30s upon the arrival of precipitation, but wet-
bulb processes should lower these to the 31-35 degree range for
the rest of the day. This should lead to mostly snow falling in
these areas as well, though some rain may mix in at the onset.

Snow amounts will be favored for the higher elevations due to
the more favorable thermal environment with 1 to 3 inches being
common with a few locations approaching 4 inches. Valleys will
be closer to a coating to around an inch and a half with snow
accumulating mainly on non-paved surfaces as the March sun
angle and temperatures near or above freezing during most of the
event should prevent much from accumulating on paved surfaces.
Therefore, no significant impacts are expected in valley
locations today. It is for that reason that we adjusted the
weather grids to output `light snow` in the valleys for today
but kept plain `snow` wording for the higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Unsettled and active weather is expected to start the extended
period as a powerful storm develops over the Northeast. As
strong disturbances within both the northern and southern
stream approach the area, they will be phasing as they get close
to the eastern seaboard. This will allow for a developing
surface wave to rapidly intensify as it moves northward from the
mid Atlantic coast on Friday night into New England for
Saturday.

Initially, temps in the boundary layer and aloft will be above
freezing to start Friday night. Surface temps will generally be
in the 30s to low 40s for much of the area. However, colder air
will quickly be arriving thanks to a cold front associated with
the northern stream disturbance. This should allow for much
colder air to rush into the region on Saturday as the strong
storm passes by to the east of the area. As a result, precip
will changeover from rain to snow from west to east during the
day on Saturday. High terrain areas will also see a changeover
to accumulating snowfall quicker than valley areas as well,
although much of the area will be capable of seeing at least a
moderate accumulation of snowfall before precip tapers off on
Saturday evening. There still is some uncertainty regarding the
exact storm track, which will determine when/how quickly the
changeover occurs. Models and ensembles have been trending
higher in the QPF amounts, although there still remains
uncertainty regarding exact amounts. However, considering the
rapidly deepening storm system, a band of heavy precip would
make sense of the northwestern side of the storm, which could
very well wind up over a large part of the area for during
Saturday afternoon. This could potentially bring a large impact
due to high snowfall rates and temps cooling below freezing, so
will continue to highlight this storm in the HWO.

Behind the storm, the very strong system will lift into southern
Canada. However, a strong pressure gradient will result in gusty
winds for Saturday night into Sunday across the area, with
northwest winds gusting over 30 mph at times. A few lingering
snow showers are possible over western areas thanks to some lake
effect/lake enhancement, but accumulation should be fairly
limited. After lows on Sat night in the teens, highs on Sunday
will only reach the 20s and 30s and it will feel even colder due
to the gusty winds.
 
Ya know it’s not the National Weather Service but ya gotta have hope.
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National Weather Service Burlington VT
923 AM EST Wed Mar 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
We will see a mix of light rain and snow overspread the region this
afternoon and evening which could drop an inch of snow across
portions of northern New York and southern parts of Vermont. High
pressure will build across the region on Thursday and Friday
yielding quiet weather and springlike temperatures. A potent storm
system will impact the North Country on Saturday with moderate to
heavy snow likely.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 923 AM EST Wednesday...Quick update to the morning
forecast to adjust cloud cover upward as sun is not filtering
through the clouds at all except along the international border.
That will go away soon as well, with 100% cloud cover expected
through the day. Adjusted PoPs slightly to indicate less chances
of precip (0%) across the region through noon, and across
northern/central areas through about 2-3 PM.

Previous Discussion...Surface high pressure has been shifting
offshore through the morning hours with weak moisture return
beginning to occur with dewpoints steadily climbing into the mid
teens. It`ll be a quiet start to the day with some filtered
morning sunshine expected through a cirrus deck. Don`t get too
used to some filtered sunshine as clouds will thicken through
the morning hours and lead to a gloomy march day as a low
pressure system tracks to our south. A potent shortwave trough
will move through the North Country this afternoon and evening
and will interact with some of the moisture associated with the
low to our south. This will yield some light rain and snow to
occur across portions of northern New York and Southern Vermont.
Thermal profiles remain a touch tricky as temperatures are
expected to warm into the upper 30s prior to the best chance of
precipitation. Dewpoints in the 20s will yield decent wet-bulb
potential as rain falls through the atmosphere and evaporates.
As temperatures fall late this afternoon across southern and
central Vermont, we will see more snow than rain with some
accumulations up to an inch possible for lower elevations. As
you head above 1500 ft for the spine of the southern Green
Mountains, pockets of 1-3 inches of fresh snow could be seen.

All precipitation looks to taper off by midnight tonight with
another surface high pressure building into the region from the
Upper Midwest. It`ll feel more like springtime on Thursday with
some pockets of sunshine and temperatures in the upper 30s to
mid 40s. Our PoP forecast for Thursday is a big fat zero, so if
you`ve got any outdoor tasks to do, Thursday is the day to do
it!

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 310 AM EST Wednesday...Zonal flow and weak ridging begin to
break down ahead of the next significant weather system expected
over the weekend. Thursday night will see light winds and lingering
clouds with overnight lows in the mid 20s to upper teens. As for
Friday, conditions will be dry and above seasonal temperatures in
the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 310 AM EST Wednesday...The long term starts active as models
continue to show significant cyclogenesis across the mid- atlantic
states Friday night into Saturday morning. Models also show a
rapidly deepening surface low moving northward up the Atlantic coast
and across New England. Trends are shifting as significant dynamical
cooling as the low pressure system matures/intensifies, along with
an eastward moving frontal zone that the low is expected to track
along. Thinking now leans to more of a snow solution with
temperatures in the valleys being just above freezing, but periods
of heavy, wet snow midday on Saturday with early snow rations
looking around 8 to 1 early on. QPF amounts are still ranging from
0.30" to 1.25" across the CWA with models still differing where the
heaviest swath of precipitation will set up.

Heavy snowfall rates could result in difficult travel later
Saturday/Saturday night before snow ends late Saturday night. We
will continue to monitor carefully.

Should see cold/blustery conditions on Sunday, with continued
mountain snow showers/flurries in moderately strong northwesterly
flow. Should see highs on Sunday only in the 20s, with low wind
chills and possible wind advisory level winds with NW winds 15-30
mph and gusts to 45 mph, especially during the morning hours. Drier
conditions expected Sunday night into Monday, and temperatures
should moderate back into the upper 30s to lower 40s for highs on
Monday and Tuesday.
 
Got 1 Montage day on my IndyPass. Looks like that could be a better bet than my Catamount days or Magic day.
 
rfreeman said:
Got 1 Montage day on my IndyPass. Looks like that could be a better bet than my Catamount days or Magic day.
Click to expand...
Montage was in very good shape when I was there on Feb. 28. Far more base than Catamount around the same time.
 
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