Teledork
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jan 28, 2021
Same. Have to get my cruising-through-trees-at-speed fix in somehow. Now if only we could convince Laz to reconsider!
Winter Weather 21/22
- Thread starter JTG
- Start date
- Status
NYSkiBlog
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
402 PM EST Fri Mar 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring mainly fair and cold conditions
this afternoon with partly to mostly sunny skies.
Temperatures will slowly moderate on Saturday, with
increasing clouds. Although some rain is expected on Sunday,
temperatures will be much milder. It will return colder again for
next week with some additional periods of precipitation possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Active/unsettled pattern is expected to persist through next week,
particularly at the beginning and end of the week. Starting off the
week, a strong southwesterly upper jet will snake its way from the
Desert Southwest into southeastern Canada between a deep trough over
the Four Corners and flat ridging over the Southeast. Lead impulse
emanating from the western trough will induce cyclogenesis along the
sharp baroclinic zone, with the low tracking roughly up the Ohio
Valley and into southern New England Monday into Monday night. High
probability for a wet day Monday based on the track of the low and
burst of isentropic lift ahead of it. Thermal profiles are in
question, but consensus favors rain for most areas aside from the
southern Adirondacks, southern Greens, and possibly Lake George
Saratoga Region, where a wintry mix to snow is possible with
northward extent. We could see a tight temperature gradient
depending on the track of the low, and if the warm sector can poke
into southern zones, another run at 60 degrees is possible. Colder
air wrapping into the system as it departs Monday night should
change any lingering precip to snow, but at this time, probabilities
for significant snow are low.
Tuesday into Wednesday, more settled weather is favored with upper
flow becoming confluent and high pressure building in. High temps
Tuesday are expected to be back closer to normal in the low 30s to
mid-40s, edging up several degrees by Wednesday as return flow
commences once the high moves east.
For Thursday into Friday, there are signals in the guidance that the
mean trough in the Intermountain West will shift eastward into the
Plains/Upper Midwest, with strong upper jet energy rounding the base
of this trough. This could lead to more stormy and unsettled weather
by the end of the week. Details are murky at this point. Will
continue to follow the NBM with temps near/slightly above seasonal
normals.
National Weather Service Albany NY
402 PM EST Fri Mar 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring mainly fair and cold conditions
this afternoon with partly to mostly sunny skies.
Temperatures will slowly moderate on Saturday, with
increasing clouds. Although some rain is expected on Sunday,
temperatures will be much milder. It will return colder again for
next week with some additional periods of precipitation possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Active/unsettled pattern is expected to persist through next week,
particularly at the beginning and end of the week. Starting off the
week, a strong southwesterly upper jet will snake its way from the
Desert Southwest into southeastern Canada between a deep trough over
the Four Corners and flat ridging over the Southeast. Lead impulse
emanating from the western trough will induce cyclogenesis along the
sharp baroclinic zone, with the low tracking roughly up the Ohio
Valley and into southern New England Monday into Monday night. High
probability for a wet day Monday based on the track of the low and
burst of isentropic lift ahead of it. Thermal profiles are in
question, but consensus favors rain for most areas aside from the
southern Adirondacks, southern Greens, and possibly Lake George
Saratoga Region, where a wintry mix to snow is possible with
northward extent. We could see a tight temperature gradient
depending on the track of the low, and if the warm sector can poke
into southern zones, another run at 60 degrees is possible. Colder
air wrapping into the system as it departs Monday night should
change any lingering precip to snow, but at this time, probabilities
for significant snow are low.
Tuesday into Wednesday, more settled weather is favored with upper
flow becoming confluent and high pressure building in. High temps
Tuesday are expected to be back closer to normal in the low 30s to
mid-40s, edging up several degrees by Wednesday as return flow
commences once the high moves east.
For Thursday into Friday, there are signals in the guidance that the
mean trough in the Intermountain West will shift eastward into the
Plains/Upper Midwest, with strong upper jet energy rounding the base
of this trough. This could lead to more stormy and unsettled weather
by the end of the week. Details are murky at this point. Will
continue to follow the NBM with temps near/slightly above seasonal
normals.
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
National Weather Service Burlington VT
653 PM EST Fri Mar 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered light snow showers and flurries across the region
this afternoon will gradually diminish overnight followed by
quiet and dry weather for Saturday. Changeable conditions are
expected for the latter half of the weekend where light mixed
precipitation Saturday night will be followed by a surge of much
warmer air and scattered rain showers Sunday as temperatures
eventually reach well into the 50s. Cooler conditions return for
Monday along with a period of rain and snow for Monday
afternoon into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 609 PM EST Friday...The shortwave energy has begun to exit
the region and as a result, the weak conditional instability
from this afternoon has waned and we are seeing a steady decline
in radar returns across northern New York. At the same time, we
are seeing the 500 mb ridge begin to shift northward toward the
North Country. All of this should lead to any lingering snow
showers to dissipate prior to midnight with dry conditions
expected to linger through the daylight hours on Saturday. The
low level moisture continues to look like it`ll get trapped
beneath a subsidence inversion tonight so it`ll likely be
cloudy at more places than not through the overnight hours.
Previous Discussion...As expected, a weak shortwave trough
dropping southeastward from Canada has produced some scattered
snow showers and flurries across the region this afternoon. With
a very dry airmass in place though, lots of what we`re seeing
on radar returns are falling as virga with the higher elevations
seeing the most activity, albeit very light. Not expecting
anything more than a dusting with this stuff, and it should
gradually diminish overnight as the shortwave exits the region
and is replaced by surface high pressure. Tough cloud forecast
for tonight as the shortwave has brought in some low/mid-level
moisture that soundings indicate will become trapped below a
developing subsidence inversion around ridgetop levels. Thinking
we`ll see considerable cloudiness across northern areas with
the southern Champlain and Connecticut valleys likely seeing the
least cloud cover. Any clearing early Saturday morning though
will be replaced quickly by increasing mid/high clouds from the
southwest ahead of our next system, but Saturday should be
pleasant and dry. Lows tonight will be chilly again though
warmer than last night in the single digit to teens above zero,
and highs Saturday will be seasonal in the low/mid 30s except
locally in the upper 20s in the northern St. Lawrence Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 PM EST Friday...No significant changes made to latter
half of the weekend forecast this afternoon with models locked
in to the overall synoptic pattern which features low pressure
forming in the lee of the U.S. Rockies Saturday that will track
through the Great Lakes Saturday night, north of Montreal on
Sunday and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence Sunday night.
Saturday Night - Sunday: Overall impacts continue to trend
downward for this period in regard to wintry mix potential as
model trends continue to favor a faster progression of a warm
lifting through the forecast area. Limited QPF along the frontal
passage will keep a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain
spotty/showery early Sunday morning with perhaps just a light
glaze across the northern St. Lawrence Valley and eastern
Vermont where cold air will be harder to scour out. By mid
Sunday morning a strong warm nose aloft associated with a 60+kt
850mb southwesterly jet will mix out quickly to the surface with
any frozen precip will transition to rain showers as
temperatures rapidly warm into the 50s by mid- afternoon. Expect
a band of showers to move through the region during the early
half of the day, but as the region becomes well entrenched in
the warm sector in the afternoon, showers will become more hit
or miss with south/southwesterly winds becoming gusty in the
25-35 mph range with locally up to 45 mph possible across the
St. Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks.
Sunday Night: A trailing cold front sweeps into the region
Sunday evening with generally little fanfare as the bulk of deep
moisture with this system will by that time be north of the
border. Scattered rain showers could switch to snow before
ending, but little to no accumulation is expected. Temperatures
remain mild overnight in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EST Friday...Cold front which crosses the area
Sunday night will remain situated south of our area, and next
wave of low pressure will ride along it bringing next
precipitation system to the region on Monday afternoon and into
the overnight. Track of the low will be south of our forecast
area, keeping us on the colder side of the system. Will see
light snow, mixing with rain during the daytime hours fairly
widespread across our area. Precipitation totals from Monday
into Monday night will range from around a quarter of an inch
along the international border up to about a half an inch in
southern Vermont. Snowfall totals will range from around a
coating across our southern zones up to 3 inches in the Northern
Greens and Northernmost Dacks. Daytime high temps will be quite
mild leading to further snowmelt, therefore with snowmelt and
precipitation we`ll keep an eye on any possible flooding
concerns as we get closer to early next week. A weak northern
stream clipper system will bring another chance for some light
snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday. Another possibly
more impactful system will arrive for the end of the week, with
likely pops beginning on Friday, though still much uncertainty
with track of the low and precipitation type a full week out.
653 PM EST Fri Mar 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered light snow showers and flurries across the region
this afternoon will gradually diminish overnight followed by
quiet and dry weather for Saturday. Changeable conditions are
expected for the latter half of the weekend where light mixed
precipitation Saturday night will be followed by a surge of much
warmer air and scattered rain showers Sunday as temperatures
eventually reach well into the 50s. Cooler conditions return for
Monday along with a period of rain and snow for Monday
afternoon into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 609 PM EST Friday...The shortwave energy has begun to exit
the region and as a result, the weak conditional instability
from this afternoon has waned and we are seeing a steady decline
in radar returns across northern New York. At the same time, we
are seeing the 500 mb ridge begin to shift northward toward the
North Country. All of this should lead to any lingering snow
showers to dissipate prior to midnight with dry conditions
expected to linger through the daylight hours on Saturday. The
low level moisture continues to look like it`ll get trapped
beneath a subsidence inversion tonight so it`ll likely be
cloudy at more places than not through the overnight hours.
Previous Discussion...As expected, a weak shortwave trough
dropping southeastward from Canada has produced some scattered
snow showers and flurries across the region this afternoon. With
a very dry airmass in place though, lots of what we`re seeing
on radar returns are falling as virga with the higher elevations
seeing the most activity, albeit very light. Not expecting
anything more than a dusting with this stuff, and it should
gradually diminish overnight as the shortwave exits the region
and is replaced by surface high pressure. Tough cloud forecast
for tonight as the shortwave has brought in some low/mid-level
moisture that soundings indicate will become trapped below a
developing subsidence inversion around ridgetop levels. Thinking
we`ll see considerable cloudiness across northern areas with
the southern Champlain and Connecticut valleys likely seeing the
least cloud cover. Any clearing early Saturday morning though
will be replaced quickly by increasing mid/high clouds from the
southwest ahead of our next system, but Saturday should be
pleasant and dry. Lows tonight will be chilly again though
warmer than last night in the single digit to teens above zero,
and highs Saturday will be seasonal in the low/mid 30s except
locally in the upper 20s in the northern St. Lawrence Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 PM EST Friday...No significant changes made to latter
half of the weekend forecast this afternoon with models locked
in to the overall synoptic pattern which features low pressure
forming in the lee of the U.S. Rockies Saturday that will track
through the Great Lakes Saturday night, north of Montreal on
Sunday and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence Sunday night.
Saturday Night - Sunday: Overall impacts continue to trend
downward for this period in regard to wintry mix potential as
model trends continue to favor a faster progression of a warm
lifting through the forecast area. Limited QPF along the frontal
passage will keep a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain
spotty/showery early Sunday morning with perhaps just a light
glaze across the northern St. Lawrence Valley and eastern
Vermont where cold air will be harder to scour out. By mid
Sunday morning a strong warm nose aloft associated with a 60+kt
850mb southwesterly jet will mix out quickly to the surface with
any frozen precip will transition to rain showers as
temperatures rapidly warm into the 50s by mid- afternoon. Expect
a band of showers to move through the region during the early
half of the day, but as the region becomes well entrenched in
the warm sector in the afternoon, showers will become more hit
or miss with south/southwesterly winds becoming gusty in the
25-35 mph range with locally up to 45 mph possible across the
St. Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks.
Sunday Night: A trailing cold front sweeps into the region
Sunday evening with generally little fanfare as the bulk of deep
moisture with this system will by that time be north of the
border. Scattered rain showers could switch to snow before
ending, but little to no accumulation is expected. Temperatures
remain mild overnight in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EST Friday...Cold front which crosses the area
Sunday night will remain situated south of our area, and next
wave of low pressure will ride along it bringing next
precipitation system to the region on Monday afternoon and into
the overnight. Track of the low will be south of our forecast
area, keeping us on the colder side of the system. Will see
light snow, mixing with rain during the daytime hours fairly
widespread across our area. Precipitation totals from Monday
into Monday night will range from around a quarter of an inch
along the international border up to about a half an inch in
southern Vermont. Snowfall totals will range from around a
coating across our southern zones up to 3 inches in the Northern
Greens and Northernmost Dacks. Daytime high temps will be quite
mild leading to further snowmelt, therefore with snowmelt and
precipitation we`ll keep an eye on any possible flooding
concerns as we get closer to early next week. A weak northern
stream clipper system will bring another chance for some light
snow showers Wednesday night into Thursday. Another possibly
more impactful system will arrive for the end of the week, with
likely pops beginning on Friday, though still much uncertainty
with track of the low and precipitation type a full week out.
Warp daddy
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2020
Wonderful !
What do we think about the Saturday event for the Daks? While it’s a ways out and track will be important (what else is new, and it’s March), but a number of forecasts are calling for a foot or more at elevation on Sat.
Headed up to WF, may try and get in Friday night to avoid travel issues….
Headed up to WF, may try and get in Friday night to avoid travel issues….
jasonwx
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Geeze
79 in Fla
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
With the warm/wet weather and gas flying past $4.50/gal, this season is going to end very quickly.
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