Winter Weather 21/22
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NorEaster27
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- Joined
- Nov 25, 2020
- Joined
- Jul 15, 2020
NWS point forecast for Gore:
Sunday Night Snow, mainly after 1am. Temperature rising to around 17 by 5am. Wind chill values as low as -10. Breezy, with a south wind 16 to 20 mph becoming east after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
M.L.King Day Snow. High near 23. Wind chill values as low as zero. Windy, with an east wind 23 to 28 mph becoming southeast 17 to 22 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Sunday Night Snow, mainly after 1am. Temperature rising to around 17 by 5am. Wind chill values as low as -10. Breezy, with a south wind 16 to 20 mph becoming east after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
M.L.King Day Snow. High near 23. Wind chill values as low as zero. Windy, with an east wind 23 to 28 mph becoming southeast 17 to 22 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
NorEaster27
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2020
I still like 8 to 12 for a Gore as I said a few days ago, Jason may disagree. Some sleet is possible, even for Gore but I still like that range
NorEaster27
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2020
I think central PA to BGM to just north of ALY, we will see. Very dynamic storm will likely result in surprises either way
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
623 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will bring very cold conditions to
eastern New York and western New England tonight. The surface high
will move east of New England tomorrow. A complex storm system
moving up the eastern seaboard will bring a widespread accumulating
snowfall turning to a wintry mix, as well as, windy conditions to
the region for Sunday night through Monday. Cold and blustery
conditions will occur Monday night into Tuesday as the storm moves
into the Canadian Maritimes.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.Winter Storm Watch expanded to include northern Litchfield
County CT for Sunday Night through Monday...
.Winter Storm Watch for the eastern Catskills, Schoharie
Valley, western and central Mohawk Valley, Helderbergs, southern
Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region, southern VT and
Berkshires continues for Sunday Night into Monday...
Mid-January complex storm system is on track. Miller Type-A
system moves north/northeast towards the forecast area Sunday
night, as the arctic high moves east of Nova Scotia into the
North Atlantic. The mid and upper level flow will be
southwesterly ahead of the cyclone moving northeast from north-
central VA early Sunday evening.
Strong isentropic lift on the 285/290K Sfcs will overspread the
region. A southeast/east 850 hPa low-level jet will increase to
45-60+ kts Sunday night advecting in copious amounts of
Atlantic moisture. In fact the -U anomalies /easterlies/ are -4
to almost -6 STDEVs above normal across the forecast area
between 06Z-12Z/MON based on the latest NAEFS. The strong QG
lift generating by the differential thickness advection will
allow of burst of snow to engulf the region between 02Z-06Z MON.
The strong upward vertical motion will enhance the snowfall
with some support near the right entrance region of the mid and
upper level jet. A moderate to heavy snow band could develop
and pivot northwest of the Capital Region early Monday morning
into the southern Adirondacks, west-central Mohawk Valley and
eastern Catskills. Snowfall rates may peak at 1-3"/hr. The
problem with this storm system is the track of the wave. Though
everyone should get a blast of snow with the onset. The Capital
District, mid Hudson valley, Taconics, and southern Litchfield
County may get light to moderate snow/sleet totals with a light
glaze of ice. Good pcpn efficiency is expected with the surge
of snow as the best low to mid level FGEN pivots through the
forecast area by daybreak Monday, except for locations
west/northwest of the Capital Region. Moderate to heavy snow
could accumulate between 06Z-12Z/MON before changing to mix
pcpn south and east of Albany.
The NAM/GFS/SREFs and many GEFS members take the cyclone from
north-central PA to west of the Albany Monday morning into the
afternoon. The 12Z ECMWF is on the eastern end of envelope and
takes the sfc cyclone to east/northeast PA to southern
NH/southern ME by 18Z MON forming a new low near the triple
point. The majority of the solutions are leaning towards a more
inland track, as the upper trough turns negatively tilted. The
Watch looks good west of the Hudson River Valley and along the
eastern spine of the western New England higher terrain. 6-12"
could be possible, and possibly more over the southern Greens
and eastern Catskills. Temps at H925/H850 go above freezing up
the Hudson River Valley and Taconics for maybe 2-6" of snow
before changing to sleet and freezing rain. The freezing rain
should be brief with the dry slot to the 975-980 hPa. We may get
Wind Advisory gusts to 45-50 mph across the Taconics,
Berkshires and southern Greens. We will continue the mention in
the HWO. We also kept it in the WSW.
If the ECMWF is right, the winter storm watch or higher snow
total may have to be placed in the Capital Region than the 2-5".
The western and central Mohawk Valley could still get 4-8" with
some ice. The eastern Catskills/southern Adirondacks and
Berkshires may get 5-12" or slightly higher.
Temps will start in the teens and lower 20s for lows and rise
overnight. The pcpn may turn to light rain over the Hudson River
Valley, Capital District, west of the Greens in southern VT, NW
CT and Taconics in the dry slot. However, the H700-500 low will
over and shifts north/northeast of the region in the
afternoon/early evening. Temps cool back down quickly and winds
will increase to the west to northwest at 15-30 mph. Highs will
be mainly in the 30s to around 40s with upper 20s over the
southern Dacks and southern Greens. Some blowing snow is
possible over the the higher terrain and the western Mohawk
Valley.
Monday Night...Mid and upper level deformation snowfall
turns to upslope and lake effect for locations northwest of the
Capital Region. Some light snow accums of 1-3" are possible in
the western Dacks, and western Mohawk Valley. Some upslope
snowfall continues over the northern Taconics, southern Greens
and the northern Berkshires with a couple inches of additional
snowfall. It will remain blustery, as the occluded cyclone
moves northeast into the eastern Quebec and near the Gulf of St
Lawrence. Lows fall back into the single digits and teens with
some below zero readings over the Adirondack Park.
Tuesday...The winds will gradually diminish with high pressure
building in from the lower Great Lakes Region and WV. The flow
turns more northerly as the lake effect should cease with little
additional snowfall for the western Mohawk Valley. Max temps
will run about 10 degrees below normal with highs in the upper
teens to mid 20s in the valley. Single digits to teens over the
mtns.
National Weather Service Albany NY
623 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure will bring very cold conditions to
eastern New York and western New England tonight. The surface high
will move east of New England tomorrow. A complex storm system
moving up the eastern seaboard will bring a widespread accumulating
snowfall turning to a wintry mix, as well as, windy conditions to
the region for Sunday night through Monday. Cold and blustery
conditions will occur Monday night into Tuesday as the storm moves
into the Canadian Maritimes.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
.Winter Storm Watch expanded to include northern Litchfield
County CT for Sunday Night through Monday...
.Winter Storm Watch for the eastern Catskills, Schoharie
Valley, western and central Mohawk Valley, Helderbergs, southern
Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region, southern VT and
Berkshires continues for Sunday Night into Monday...
Mid-January complex storm system is on track. Miller Type-A
system moves north/northeast towards the forecast area Sunday
night, as the arctic high moves east of Nova Scotia into the
North Atlantic. The mid and upper level flow will be
southwesterly ahead of the cyclone moving northeast from north-
central VA early Sunday evening.
Strong isentropic lift on the 285/290K Sfcs will overspread the
region. A southeast/east 850 hPa low-level jet will increase to
45-60+ kts Sunday night advecting in copious amounts of
Atlantic moisture. In fact the -U anomalies /easterlies/ are -4
to almost -6 STDEVs above normal across the forecast area
between 06Z-12Z/MON based on the latest NAEFS. The strong QG
lift generating by the differential thickness advection will
allow of burst of snow to engulf the region between 02Z-06Z MON.
The strong upward vertical motion will enhance the snowfall
with some support near the right entrance region of the mid and
upper level jet. A moderate to heavy snow band could develop
and pivot northwest of the Capital Region early Monday morning
into the southern Adirondacks, west-central Mohawk Valley and
eastern Catskills. Snowfall rates may peak at 1-3"/hr. The
problem with this storm system is the track of the wave. Though
everyone should get a blast of snow with the onset. The Capital
District, mid Hudson valley, Taconics, and southern Litchfield
County may get light to moderate snow/sleet totals with a light
glaze of ice. Good pcpn efficiency is expected with the surge
of snow as the best low to mid level FGEN pivots through the
forecast area by daybreak Monday, except for locations
west/northwest of the Capital Region. Moderate to heavy snow
could accumulate between 06Z-12Z/MON before changing to mix
pcpn south and east of Albany.
The NAM/GFS/SREFs and many GEFS members take the cyclone from
north-central PA to west of the Albany Monday morning into the
afternoon. The 12Z ECMWF is on the eastern end of envelope and
takes the sfc cyclone to east/northeast PA to southern
NH/southern ME by 18Z MON forming a new low near the triple
point. The majority of the solutions are leaning towards a more
inland track, as the upper trough turns negatively tilted. The
Watch looks good west of the Hudson River Valley and along the
eastern spine of the western New England higher terrain. 6-12"
could be possible, and possibly more over the southern Greens
and eastern Catskills. Temps at H925/H850 go above freezing up
the Hudson River Valley and Taconics for maybe 2-6" of snow
before changing to sleet and freezing rain. The freezing rain
should be brief with the dry slot to the 975-980 hPa. We may get
Wind Advisory gusts to 45-50 mph across the Taconics,
Berkshires and southern Greens. We will continue the mention in
the HWO. We also kept it in the WSW.
If the ECMWF is right, the winter storm watch or higher snow
total may have to be placed in the Capital Region than the 2-5".
The western and central Mohawk Valley could still get 4-8" with
some ice. The eastern Catskills/southern Adirondacks and
Berkshires may get 5-12" or slightly higher.
Temps will start in the teens and lower 20s for lows and rise
overnight. The pcpn may turn to light rain over the Hudson River
Valley, Capital District, west of the Greens in southern VT, NW
CT and Taconics in the dry slot. However, the H700-500 low will
over and shifts north/northeast of the region in the
afternoon/early evening. Temps cool back down quickly and winds
will increase to the west to northwest at 15-30 mph. Highs will
be mainly in the 30s to around 40s with upper 20s over the
southern Dacks and southern Greens. Some blowing snow is
possible over the the higher terrain and the western Mohawk
Valley.
Monday Night...Mid and upper level deformation snowfall
turns to upslope and lake effect for locations northwest of the
Capital Region. Some light snow accums of 1-3" are possible in
the western Dacks, and western Mohawk Valley. Some upslope
snowfall continues over the northern Taconics, southern Greens
and the northern Berkshires with a couple inches of additional
snowfall. It will remain blustery, as the occluded cyclone
moves northeast into the eastern Quebec and near the Gulf of St
Lawrence. Lows fall back into the single digits and teens with
some below zero readings over the Adirondack Park.
Tuesday...The winds will gradually diminish with high pressure
building in from the lower Great Lakes Region and WV. The flow
turns more northerly as the lake effect should cease with little
additional snowfall for the western Mohawk Valley. Max temps
will run about 10 degrees below normal with highs in the upper
teens to mid 20s in the valley. Single digits to teens over the
mtns.
jasonwx
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Ty
exactly... many years ago a metro friend of mine said, Stupid thing happen under a 500mb low.....someone will win big and someone will be very wet
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