- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
422 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold Arctic airmass will begin to filter into the area
today, with temperatures falling in the afternoon and evening.
Dangerously cold conditions can be expected tonight into Saturday
morning. Temperatures will moderate by Sunday, although it will
remain chilly. A winter storm is expected to bring accumulating snow
to the region Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sources of guidance/ensembles still consistent on the general track
and timing of the storm Sunday night through Monday. This far out,
any small shift in the track of the closed upper low will shift the
associated zones of maximum low/midlevel forcing, but also determine
what areas where a warm nose aloft could potentially result in a
period of mix during the day Monday. Those are details that will
gradually become clearer as we get closer to storm impact.
Snow will spread across the region Sunday night with the most in
higher terrain of the eastern Catskills, Helderbergs, southern Green
Mountains, Taconics and Berkshires. Very strong southeast to east
boundary layer winds will support strong warm advection and moisture
advection, especially in upslope areas in complex terrain.
There are consistent signals for downsloping in the Hudson Valley
off the Taconics and off the southern Green Mountains in southern
VT. However, we have to watch where the best upward motion and layer
of saturation aloft to see if significant precipitation generation
well above the downsloping layer could negate some of the potential
limiting of the precipitation in lee of the terrain.
Way too early to tell, so forecast will reflect reduced snow amounts
in downslope areas but still enough where some headlines will likely
eventually be needed. Headlines may be needed over most of not all
our region but the most snow still looks like in the higher terrain
of the eastern Catskills, parts of the southern Adirondacks,
Helderbergs, Taconics, southern Green Mountains and Berkshires.
In terms of where any warm nose could track. The best chances for
any mix would be the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and perhaps the
southern Berkshires. The very strong southeast to east boundary
layer winds push well into eastern NY but such a cold core closed
upper low could limit the north and west extent of the boundary
layer warm nose but again, those details are not completely clear
yet. Usually, the benchmark track of the upper system for all snow
in our region is the upper low tracking more toward Cape Cod, which
keeps any warm air well to the east but we will see.
Again, the consistent signal in this storm is tracking right over
eastern NY and and interior New England. Of course the ensemble
mean is a little more east, implying there are ensemble members that
suggest a colder and snowier scenario over the entire forecast area.
So, the bottom line is that a brief period of mix is indicated in
the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and southern Berkshires but the area of
mix could change as details become clearer.
Areas from the Hudson Valley into western New England would see a
midlevel dry slot track over our region Monday if the current storm
track verifies. Within the midlevel dry slot zone, snow will end and
there could be just patchy light drizzle or freezing drizzle until
any upper deformation snows rotate into our region Monday afternoon
and evening. Any upper deformation snows would likely be light and
limited coverage with the best chances for additional accumulations
in higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks and southern Green
Mountains. Still, some light additional accumulations possible
everywhere, just the most upper deformation accumulations in the
higher terrain.
National Weather Service Albany NY
422 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold Arctic airmass will begin to filter into the area
today, with temperatures falling in the afternoon and evening.
Dangerously cold conditions can be expected tonight into Saturday
morning. Temperatures will moderate by Sunday, although it will
remain chilly. A winter storm is expected to bring accumulating snow
to the region Sunday night into Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sources of guidance/ensembles still consistent on the general track
and timing of the storm Sunday night through Monday. This far out,
any small shift in the track of the closed upper low will shift the
associated zones of maximum low/midlevel forcing, but also determine
what areas where a warm nose aloft could potentially result in a
period of mix during the day Monday. Those are details that will
gradually become clearer as we get closer to storm impact.
Snow will spread across the region Sunday night with the most in
higher terrain of the eastern Catskills, Helderbergs, southern Green
Mountains, Taconics and Berkshires. Very strong southeast to east
boundary layer winds will support strong warm advection and moisture
advection, especially in upslope areas in complex terrain.
There are consistent signals for downsloping in the Hudson Valley
off the Taconics and off the southern Green Mountains in southern
VT. However, we have to watch where the best upward motion and layer
of saturation aloft to see if significant precipitation generation
well above the downsloping layer could negate some of the potential
limiting of the precipitation in lee of the terrain.
Way too early to tell, so forecast will reflect reduced snow amounts
in downslope areas but still enough where some headlines will likely
eventually be needed. Headlines may be needed over most of not all
our region but the most snow still looks like in the higher terrain
of the eastern Catskills, parts of the southern Adirondacks,
Helderbergs, Taconics, southern Green Mountains and Berkshires.
In terms of where any warm nose could track. The best chances for
any mix would be the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and perhaps the
southern Berkshires. The very strong southeast to east boundary
layer winds push well into eastern NY but such a cold core closed
upper low could limit the north and west extent of the boundary
layer warm nose but again, those details are not completely clear
yet. Usually, the benchmark track of the upper system for all snow
in our region is the upper low tracking more toward Cape Cod, which
keeps any warm air well to the east but we will see.
Again, the consistent signal in this storm is tracking right over
eastern NY and and interior New England. Of course the ensemble
mean is a little more east, implying there are ensemble members that
suggest a colder and snowier scenario over the entire forecast area.
So, the bottom line is that a brief period of mix is indicated in
the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and southern Berkshires but the area of
mix could change as details become clearer.
Areas from the Hudson Valley into western New England would see a
midlevel dry slot track over our region Monday if the current storm
track verifies. Within the midlevel dry slot zone, snow will end and
there could be just patchy light drizzle or freezing drizzle until
any upper deformation snows rotate into our region Monday afternoon
and evening. Any upper deformation snows would likely be light and
limited coverage with the best chances for additional accumulations
in higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks and southern Green
Mountains. Still, some light additional accumulations possible
everywhere, just the most upper deformation accumulations in the
higher terrain.
