Winter Weather 21/22
- Thread starter JTG
- Start date
- Status
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
I'd hit Holiday Valley in a second with that snow. That place is wicked fun.
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Even though we're 36 hours out, I don't see a true powder day for VT. I think I'll pass on Tuesday and bank on better storms to come this winter.
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
416 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
As bitter cold Arctic air pours into the region, gusty
winds will make for dangerously low wind chill values tonight.
Although it will be dry and clear, it will remain rather frigid
through the weekend. A storm system moving up the eastern seaboard
with bring a widespread accumulating snowfall and windy conditions
to the region for Sunday night into Monday, with a wintry mix
possible for some areas as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clouds will rapidly be increasing for Sunday evening as a
southern stream shortwave heads across the Southeast and towards
the mid Atlantic States. This will be a closed off upper level
low, with abundant Gulf and Atlantic moisture. Lows will occur
early in the overnight in the teens to low 20s before precip
starts spreading northward. Light snow will begin spreading
across southern areas by 9 or 10 PM and should reach northern
parts of the CWA by 1 or 2 AM.
Strong isentropic lift, aided by a powerful low-level jet of 50+
knots, will be allowing for a laterally translating band of
snowfall (based of CSTAR research) to lift from south to north
across the area for late Sunday night. 12z GEFS show 850 u wind
anomalies of -4 to -5 STD, which is very impressive. This
suggest very strong flow, which will supply abundant moisture
and will upslope into the high terrain. Snowfall rates will
easily exceed 1" per hour within this snowband and rates could
reach 2" to 3" per hour where the upslope enhances the precip.
The band looks to move quickly and will be rocketing northward
across the area for the late overnight hours.
The strong low pressure area will be lifting across the mid-
Atlantic coastal plain and will be reaching eastern PA by
daybreak Monday. There still is some uncertainty regarding its
track from here. Models have shown some difficulty in how the
surface low tracks and it may reform/shift towards the NJ/Long
Island coast before lifting northward across extreme eastern New
York/western New England for during the day on Monday. Behind
the initial band of heavy snowfall on Sunday night, precip will
lighten in intensity, especially if the storm's dry slot starts
to lift into the area, by the late morning or early afternoon
hours. Ultimately, this will depend on the exact track. As the
low lifts north, some mixing with sleet or rain is possible for
eastern parts of area (Hudson Valley eastward), especially
within the storm's dry slot, as the colder cloud tops move away
and the low level flow briefly shifts to the south. To the
west, precip will remain all snow and stay fairly steady,
especially across the higher terrain, where upslope will locally
enhance precip. As the low lifts northward, precip will go back
to snow for all areas before starting to taper off for late in
the day or Monday evening, as deformation snow occurs on the
backside of the storm.
There will likely be significant differences for valley/mountain
areas, as the strong easterly flow will cause downsloping for
some valley areas (especially for the eastern parts of the
Hudson Valley). While some lower terrain areas will only see a
few inches, high terrain areas should easily see 6 to 12 inches,
so a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Adirondacks,
Helderbergs, Catskills, southern Greens and Berkshires. Mixing,
downsloping and less precip will limit valley/southern areas, so
amounts look to be lower for these areas.
In addition, winds will be very gusty. East to southeast winds
as the storm approaches on Sunday night look very strong for the
Taconics/western New England. In addition, northwest winds will
start to pick up as the storm departs late Monday as well. This
will all make for blowing/drifting snowfall and very challenging
travel.
National Weather Service Albany NY
416 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
As bitter cold Arctic air pours into the region, gusty
winds will make for dangerously low wind chill values tonight.
Although it will be dry and clear, it will remain rather frigid
through the weekend. A storm system moving up the eastern seaboard
with bring a widespread accumulating snowfall and windy conditions
to the region for Sunday night into Monday, with a wintry mix
possible for some areas as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clouds will rapidly be increasing for Sunday evening as a
southern stream shortwave heads across the Southeast and towards
the mid Atlantic States. This will be a closed off upper level
low, with abundant Gulf and Atlantic moisture. Lows will occur
early in the overnight in the teens to low 20s before precip
starts spreading northward. Light snow will begin spreading
across southern areas by 9 or 10 PM and should reach northern
parts of the CWA by 1 or 2 AM.
Strong isentropic lift, aided by a powerful low-level jet of 50+
knots, will be allowing for a laterally translating band of
snowfall (based of CSTAR research) to lift from south to north
across the area for late Sunday night. 12z GEFS show 850 u wind
anomalies of -4 to -5 STD, which is very impressive. This
suggest very strong flow, which will supply abundant moisture
and will upslope into the high terrain. Snowfall rates will
easily exceed 1" per hour within this snowband and rates could
reach 2" to 3" per hour where the upslope enhances the precip.
The band looks to move quickly and will be rocketing northward
across the area for the late overnight hours.
The strong low pressure area will be lifting across the mid-
Atlantic coastal plain and will be reaching eastern PA by
daybreak Monday. There still is some uncertainty regarding its
track from here. Models have shown some difficulty in how the
surface low tracks and it may reform/shift towards the NJ/Long
Island coast before lifting northward across extreme eastern New
York/western New England for during the day on Monday. Behind
the initial band of heavy snowfall on Sunday night, precip will
lighten in intensity, especially if the storm's dry slot starts
to lift into the area, by the late morning or early afternoon
hours. Ultimately, this will depend on the exact track. As the
low lifts north, some mixing with sleet or rain is possible for
eastern parts of area (Hudson Valley eastward), especially
within the storm's dry slot, as the colder cloud tops move away
and the low level flow briefly shifts to the south. To the
west, precip will remain all snow and stay fairly steady,
especially across the higher terrain, where upslope will locally
enhance precip. As the low lifts northward, precip will go back
to snow for all areas before starting to taper off for late in
the day or Monday evening, as deformation snow occurs on the
backside of the storm.
There will likely be significant differences for valley/mountain
areas, as the strong easterly flow will cause downsloping for
some valley areas (especially for the eastern parts of the
Hudson Valley). While some lower terrain areas will only see a
few inches, high terrain areas should easily see 6 to 12 inches,
so a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Adirondacks,
Helderbergs, Catskills, southern Greens and Berkshires. Mixing,
downsloping and less precip will limit valley/southern areas, so
amounts look to be lower for these areas.
In addition, winds will be very gusty. East to southeast winds
as the storm approaches on Sunday night look very strong for the
Taconics/western New England. In addition, northwest winds will
start to pick up as the storm departs late Monday as well. This
will all make for blowing/drifting snowfall and very challenging
travel.
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
625 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Although it will be dry and clear, it will be rather frigid
through the weekend. A storm system moving up the eastern
seaboard will bring a widespread accumulating snowfall and
windy conditions to the region for Sunday night into Monday,
with a wintry mix possible for some areas as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Winter Storm Watch for the eastern Catskills, Schoharie
Valley, western and central Mohawk Valley, Helderbergs, southern
Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region, southern VT and
Berkshires...
Temperatures may drop a couple of degree Sunday evening before
the clouds thicken and snow begins to spread over our region.
Temperatures will rise through the rest of the night and by
daybreak will be near or above freezing south of the Capital
Region through the mid Hudson Valley into the Litchfield Hills
and below freezing everywhere else.
There are still considerable uncertainties in sources of
guidance/ensembles as to how far inland a warm layer aloft
extends. This will depend on where the upper closed low and
surface features track. The track will depend on how the
downstream upper ridging ahead of the closed low links with
northern stream flat ridging currently in western Canada that quickly
tracks into southeastern Canada. A strong upper low in the
arctic drops toward Hudson Bay well to the north but the flat
northern stream upper ridging in southern Canada is expected to
amplify ahead of the Hudson Bay feature while linking to the
downstream upper ridging from the closed upper low. This complex
interaction of features is only part of why sources of
guidance/ensembles are showing such spread, and why the sources
of guidance/ensembles are indicating the upper closed low and
surface low are tracking more inland.
So, higher elevation, where the Winter Storm Watches are, can
still expect 6 or more inches of snow. Valley areas and areas
not in the watch could get up to 4 inches of snow before the
warm layer aloft causes a change to mixed precipitation. There
are questions about how much valley areas could warm Monday if
there is some accumulated snow but downslope winds in lee of
terrain features that will be getting such strong southeast and
east winds should aid in warming temperatures into the 30s,
maybe even near 40 in the mid Hudson Valley.
Monday 1PM
National Weather Service Albany NY
625 AM EST Sat Jan 15 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Although it will be dry and clear, it will be rather frigid
through the weekend. A storm system moving up the eastern
seaboard will bring a widespread accumulating snowfall and
windy conditions to the region for Sunday night into Monday,
with a wintry mix possible for some areas as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Winter Storm Watch for the eastern Catskills, Schoharie
Valley, western and central Mohawk Valley, Helderbergs, southern
Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region, southern VT and
Berkshires...
Temperatures may drop a couple of degree Sunday evening before
the clouds thicken and snow begins to spread over our region.
Temperatures will rise through the rest of the night and by
daybreak will be near or above freezing south of the Capital
Region through the mid Hudson Valley into the Litchfield Hills
and below freezing everywhere else.
There are still considerable uncertainties in sources of
guidance/ensembles as to how far inland a warm layer aloft
extends. This will depend on where the upper closed low and
surface features track. The track will depend on how the
downstream upper ridging ahead of the closed low links with
northern stream flat ridging currently in western Canada that quickly
tracks into southeastern Canada. A strong upper low in the
arctic drops toward Hudson Bay well to the north but the flat
northern stream upper ridging in southern Canada is expected to
amplify ahead of the Hudson Bay feature while linking to the
downstream upper ridging from the closed upper low. This complex
interaction of features is only part of why sources of
guidance/ensembles are showing such spread, and why the sources
of guidance/ensembles are indicating the upper closed low and
surface low are tracking more inland.
So, higher elevation, where the Winter Storm Watches are, can
still expect 6 or more inches of snow. Valley areas and areas
not in the watch could get up to 4 inches of snow before the
warm layer aloft causes a change to mixed precipitation. There
are questions about how much valley areas could warm Monday if
there is some accumulated snow but downslope winds in lee of
terrain features that will be getting such strong southeast and
east winds should aid in warming temperatures into the 30s,
maybe even near 40 in the mid Hudson Valley.
Monday 1PM
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Wow, that's one ugly map for VT!
- Joined
- Jul 15, 2020
Yea I'm not sure I buy that for NoVT.
On the point forecast Magic is all snow, and Stowe shows mixing at 3700 feet?
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