x10003q
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2020
looks like around 100 miles
Winter Weather 21/22
- Thread starter JTG
- Start date
- Status
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
my underwears britches --- twice
Two much information there --- Camper.
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
353 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A quiet and mild night is expected tonight. An Arctic
airmass will begin to filter into the region during the day on
Friday. Increasing winds out of the north and the very cold airmass
will result in dangerously cold wind chills Friday night into
Saturday morning. Temperatures are expected to moderate on Sunday
ahead of a strong storm system that's expected to bring gusty winds
and accumulating snow Sunday night into Monday. Snow could mix with
some rain over the valleys on Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be situated over Upstate New York to start
Sunday, but will be shifting eastward across New England through the
day. With the high pressure in place, skies will be fairly sunny
through the entire day with light winds. After a very cold start to
the day (many spots below zero in the morning), temps will reach the
teens and 20s for highs. While these temps are moderated from
Saturday, it's still below normal.
As the high pressure area continues to shift away, clouds will
quickly increase for Sunday night as a large storm system over the
Southeast starts to head up the coast. Low temps will occur early
in the overnight with single digits and teens and temps will start
to steadily rise for the late night hours.
A large closed off shortwave will be lifting northeast across the
Carolinas and Virginia for Sunday night. A strong surface low
associated with this shortwave will be deepening as it lifts
northward. While models have been having trouble with the exact
placement/track of the low, most guidance is starting to agree that
the surface low will be tracking near or just inland of the coast
through the mid Atlantic coastal plain for Sunday night.
A strong east-southeast low level jet will be in place ahead of this
approaching storm system. 850 hpa winds will as strong as 50 to 70
kts according to the latest 12z GFS/ECMWF. The GEFS suggest the 850
u winds will be about -3 to -4 STD. This all suggests that a period
of heavy precipitation is likely across our area, as strong
frontogenesis will occur with plenty of moisture being pulled in off
the western Atlantic. With plenty of cold air (both at the surface
and aloft), p-type will initially be snow for Sunday night, and a
laterally translating band of snowfall (based on CSTAR research) is
expected to lift northward across from south to north across the
area for the late night hours. Snowfall could begin as early as
around midnight for southern areas, but the heaviest rates
(exceeding 1 inch per hour at times within the heaviest band) will
occur during the late night hours towards daybreak Monday. In
addition, the strong e-se flow aloft will allow for very strong
winds, especially across western New England and the Taconics. Some
gusts may exceed 40 mph across areas of the high terrain that
channel this type of flow, which may lead to whiteout conditions and
difficult travel.
On Monday, the shortwave will be lifting across the Northeast, while
another northern stream shortwave swings around the shortwave and
dives towards the mid Atlantic States. The track of the surface low
is still uncertain as its head across the Northeast for Monday.
While some guidance shows it moving directly across or even west of
the forecast area, some models (and ensemble members) show it just
to the east across the New England. The exact track will have an
impact on if precipitation changes to a wintry mix or rain before
tapering off for late Monday. At this point, it appears that while
steady snowfall will be in place for the entire area to start
Monday, a dry slot will likely be lifting through parts of the area
for Monday afternoon. The best chance of this occurring would be for
eastern areas, while deformation snowfall continues to the
north/west of the storm track for Monday afternoon/evening. If the
surface low does track far enough west, there could be some warming
in the boundary layer for southern and southeastern areas to allow a
changeover to rain or freezing rain. Some freezing rain is also
possible within the dry slot as well, as the colder cloud tops move
away as well for late in the day. Once the surface low finally
lifts towards northern New England and southern Canada for Monday
night, some additional wraparound/upslope snow showers are possible
into Monday night, mainly for northern and high terrain areas.
While snowfall amounts are still difficult to determine due to the
uncertainty regarding the storm track, p-type concerns and potential
dry slot, there is enough confidence for at least a moderate
snowfall for much of the area. The best chance of heavy or
significant snowfall would be for northwestern areas, although this
is subject to change over the next few days, as the track becomes
more certain.
National Weather Service Albany NY
353 PM EST Thu Jan 13 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A quiet and mild night is expected tonight. An Arctic
airmass will begin to filter into the region during the day on
Friday. Increasing winds out of the north and the very cold airmass
will result in dangerously cold wind chills Friday night into
Saturday morning. Temperatures are expected to moderate on Sunday
ahead of a strong storm system that's expected to bring gusty winds
and accumulating snow Sunday night into Monday. Snow could mix with
some rain over the valleys on Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will be situated over Upstate New York to start
Sunday, but will be shifting eastward across New England through the
day. With the high pressure in place, skies will be fairly sunny
through the entire day with light winds. After a very cold start to
the day (many spots below zero in the morning), temps will reach the
teens and 20s for highs. While these temps are moderated from
Saturday, it's still below normal.
As the high pressure area continues to shift away, clouds will
quickly increase for Sunday night as a large storm system over the
Southeast starts to head up the coast. Low temps will occur early
in the overnight with single digits and teens and temps will start
to steadily rise for the late night hours.
A large closed off shortwave will be lifting northeast across the
Carolinas and Virginia for Sunday night. A strong surface low
associated with this shortwave will be deepening as it lifts
northward. While models have been having trouble with the exact
placement/track of the low, most guidance is starting to agree that
the surface low will be tracking near or just inland of the coast
through the mid Atlantic coastal plain for Sunday night.
A strong east-southeast low level jet will be in place ahead of this
approaching storm system. 850 hpa winds will as strong as 50 to 70
kts according to the latest 12z GFS/ECMWF. The GEFS suggest the 850
u winds will be about -3 to -4 STD. This all suggests that a period
of heavy precipitation is likely across our area, as strong
frontogenesis will occur with plenty of moisture being pulled in off
the western Atlantic. With plenty of cold air (both at the surface
and aloft), p-type will initially be snow for Sunday night, and a
laterally translating band of snowfall (based on CSTAR research) is
expected to lift northward across from south to north across the
area for the late night hours. Snowfall could begin as early as
around midnight for southern areas, but the heaviest rates
(exceeding 1 inch per hour at times within the heaviest band) will
occur during the late night hours towards daybreak Monday. In
addition, the strong e-se flow aloft will allow for very strong
winds, especially across western New England and the Taconics. Some
gusts may exceed 40 mph across areas of the high terrain that
channel this type of flow, which may lead to whiteout conditions and
difficult travel.
On Monday, the shortwave will be lifting across the Northeast, while
another northern stream shortwave swings around the shortwave and
dives towards the mid Atlantic States. The track of the surface low
is still uncertain as its head across the Northeast for Monday.
While some guidance shows it moving directly across or even west of
the forecast area, some models (and ensemble members) show it just
to the east across the New England. The exact track will have an
impact on if precipitation changes to a wintry mix or rain before
tapering off for late Monday. At this point, it appears that while
steady snowfall will be in place for the entire area to start
Monday, a dry slot will likely be lifting through parts of the area
for Monday afternoon. The best chance of this occurring would be for
eastern areas, while deformation snowfall continues to the
north/west of the storm track for Monday afternoon/evening. If the
surface low does track far enough west, there could be some warming
in the boundary layer for southern and southeastern areas to allow a
changeover to rain or freezing rain. Some freezing rain is also
possible within the dry slot as well, as the colder cloud tops move
away as well for late in the day. Once the surface low finally
lifts towards northern New England and southern Canada for Monday
night, some additional wraparound/upslope snow showers are possible
into Monday night, mainly for northern and high terrain areas.
While snowfall amounts are still difficult to determine due to the
uncertainty regarding the storm track, p-type concerns and potential
dry slot, there is enough confidence for at least a moderate
snowfall for much of the area. The best chance of heavy or
significant snowfall would be for northwestern areas, although this
is subject to change over the next few days, as the track becomes
more certain.
DomB
Well-known member
- Joined
- Aug 25, 2020
Isn't Gore right by that weird 20-24 inch tier drop shape?
- Joined
- Jul 15, 2020
Looks like a good forecast to me at this point. Use those GFS maps for determining where the most snow will fall but the amounts are always overblown.
- Status
