Winter Weather 21/22
- Thread starter JTG
- Start date
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NorEaster27
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2020
Early call this looks good for the dacks but still very early. Need the low to pass SE of Albany
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
Dacks have been getting love
It's time for CNY to get some lovin'
saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Endoftheline
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2020
Most of Dacks have been getting squat. Freezing drizzle right now, wonderful.
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
736 PM EST Wed Jan 12 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Southwest flow will bring above normal temperatures through
Thursday. This period will also see a chance of snow showers
over the southern Adirondacks. An arctic front will cross the
area later Thursday night into Friday morning with a chance for
some additional snow showers. Mainly fair and bitter cold
weather is expected over the weekend. A powerful storm moving
from the Gulf Coast up the East Coast has the potential to bring
a significant snowfall on Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A potent southern stream shortwave will be lifting northeast from
the Deep South and mid Atlantic for Sunday night into Monday. This
will be a closed upper level low. Some northern stream energy will
also be approaching, although its still unclear if this will phase
with the strong southern stream storm. This storm will have
abundant Gulf moisture as it lifts northeast. While earlier model
runs have had the storm taking more of an offshore track, most
operational models are now showing a track along or even inland
through the eastern seaboard into the interior Northeast. Some
ensemble members from the 12z GEFS still show a more offshore or
coastal track, but a storm track that passes through our area is
very possible with this storm.
As a result, this makes p-types more of a concern, especially for
southern and eastern areas, despite the very cold surface temps that
we have recently been experiencing. While all areas will start off
as snow, a changeover to a wintry mix or rain is possible during the
day on Monday as the low moves across the area, mainly for areas
south/east of the Capital Region. All areas could change back to
snow before precip winds down on Monday evening, as the surface low
moves to the north and wraparound/deformation precip occurs.
Exact p-types, amounts, and duration of each will ultimately depend
on the storm track, which is still very uncertain. For now, will
include some mixing with rain and freezing rain for eastern and
southern areas. Any mixing will cut down on snowfall totals, but
widespread precip is expected, with total liquid equivalent over
0.50" being currently shown by most 12z GEFS members.
Northern/western areas currently have the best chance of seeing
significant snowfall with this storm.
In addition, this will be a very strong low pressure area (possibly
around a 980 hpa surface pressure as it passes close to the area).
With a strong pressure gradient in place, there will be the
potential for very strong winds. This will be especially true for
parts of the Taconics/western New England on Sunday night, where the
east-southeast flow channels through the terrain. Some gusts over
40 mph are possible for these areas, with windy conditions possible
for the whole area. The combination of heavy snowfall and gusty
winds could make for very difficult travel from Sunday night into
Monday.
National Weather Service Albany NY
736 PM EST Wed Jan 12 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Southwest flow will bring above normal temperatures through
Thursday. This period will also see a chance of snow showers
over the southern Adirondacks. An arctic front will cross the
area later Thursday night into Friday morning with a chance for
some additional snow showers. Mainly fair and bitter cold
weather is expected over the weekend. A powerful storm moving
from the Gulf Coast up the East Coast has the potential to bring
a significant snowfall on Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A potent southern stream shortwave will be lifting northeast from
the Deep South and mid Atlantic for Sunday night into Monday. This
will be a closed upper level low. Some northern stream energy will
also be approaching, although its still unclear if this will phase
with the strong southern stream storm. This storm will have
abundant Gulf moisture as it lifts northeast. While earlier model
runs have had the storm taking more of an offshore track, most
operational models are now showing a track along or even inland
through the eastern seaboard into the interior Northeast. Some
ensemble members from the 12z GEFS still show a more offshore or
coastal track, but a storm track that passes through our area is
very possible with this storm.
As a result, this makes p-types more of a concern, especially for
southern and eastern areas, despite the very cold surface temps that
we have recently been experiencing. While all areas will start off
as snow, a changeover to a wintry mix or rain is possible during the
day on Monday as the low moves across the area, mainly for areas
south/east of the Capital Region. All areas could change back to
snow before precip winds down on Monday evening, as the surface low
moves to the north and wraparound/deformation precip occurs.
Exact p-types, amounts, and duration of each will ultimately depend
on the storm track, which is still very uncertain. For now, will
include some mixing with rain and freezing rain for eastern and
southern areas. Any mixing will cut down on snowfall totals, but
widespread precip is expected, with total liquid equivalent over
0.50" being currently shown by most 12z GEFS members.
Northern/western areas currently have the best chance of seeing
significant snowfall with this storm.
In addition, this will be a very strong low pressure area (possibly
around a 980 hpa surface pressure as it passes close to the area).
With a strong pressure gradient in place, there will be the
potential for very strong winds. This will be especially true for
parts of the Taconics/western New England on Sunday night, where the
east-southeast flow channels through the terrain. Some gusts over
40 mph are possible for these areas, with windy conditions possible
for the whole area. The combination of heavy snowfall and gusty
winds could make for very difficult travel from Sunday night into
Monday.
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
423 AM EST Thu Jan 13 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A briefly mild day is expected today before an Arctic
airmass begins to filter into the area on Friday. Dangerously cold
wind chills are likely Friday night into Saturday morning.
Temperatures will moderate somewhat for Sunday, but a strong low
pressure system is likely to bring accumulating snow Sunday night,
possibly mixing with rain on Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Increasing consensus from guidance/ensembles for the upper closed
low to track just inland of the coast and through NY state and
perhaps brushing VT, then tracking into Canada. Subtle differences
in the guidance/ensembles in terms of the track and how far west a
warm layer aloft tracks. All areas will see snow develop Sunday
night with some light to moderate accumulations and temperatures
slowly rising through the night.
By daybreak Monday, there are signals for a warm nose at the
boundary layer to track north and east, changing precipitation to a
mix of rain and snow along and east of the Hudson River into western
New England. Precipitation mixes and changes in the eastern
Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT early, then as the boundary
layer warm nose tracks north and northeast, the Capital Region to
Berkshires, southern VT, and Lake George Saratoga Region could see a
mix midday into afternoon.
Some questions to be answered are how much will surface temperatures
warm if there is fresh snow pack, and where and how will downslope
flow due to very strong east boundary layer winds reduce
precipitation amounts? Those questions will be answered as we get
closer to storm impact but some surface temperatures may not warm as
much as guidance suggests, which could result in some sleet or
freezing rain mix but too early to tell. The areas that have the best
chances at all or mostly snow are the Schoharie Valley, central and
western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks where moderate to
heavy snow totals could occur. The northern Berkshires and southern
Green Mountains could also see mostly snow, in higher terrain at
elevations above the warm boundary layer. Even in areas that get a
mix, the initial snows Sunday night may be enough for potential
headlines but it is far too early to get precise about that.
Southeast to east winds in the higher terrain of the eastern
Catskills, Taconics, Litchfield Hills, Berkshires and southern Green
Mountains will likely be very strong and gusty Sunday night through
part of Monday morning and it is to be seen how much of that wind
can mix into the valleys. Once the system begins to depart midday
Monday through the afternoon, winds abruptly shift to west and
northwest and steadier precipitation ends. Scattered rain and snow
shower activity in the afternoon becomes snow showers and continues
into Monday evening. Lake effect snow shower activity develops
Monday evening and night and extends into the southern Adirondacks
and western Mohawk Valley.
National Weather Service Albany NY
423 AM EST Thu Jan 13 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A briefly mild day is expected today before an Arctic
airmass begins to filter into the area on Friday. Dangerously cold
wind chills are likely Friday night into Saturday morning.
Temperatures will moderate somewhat for Sunday, but a strong low
pressure system is likely to bring accumulating snow Sunday night,
possibly mixing with rain on Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Increasing consensus from guidance/ensembles for the upper closed
low to track just inland of the coast and through NY state and
perhaps brushing VT, then tracking into Canada. Subtle differences
in the guidance/ensembles in terms of the track and how far west a
warm layer aloft tracks. All areas will see snow develop Sunday
night with some light to moderate accumulations and temperatures
slowly rising through the night.
By daybreak Monday, there are signals for a warm nose at the
boundary layer to track north and east, changing precipitation to a
mix of rain and snow along and east of the Hudson River into western
New England. Precipitation mixes and changes in the eastern
Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT early, then as the boundary
layer warm nose tracks north and northeast, the Capital Region to
Berkshires, southern VT, and Lake George Saratoga Region could see a
mix midday into afternoon.
Some questions to be answered are how much will surface temperatures
warm if there is fresh snow pack, and where and how will downslope
flow due to very strong east boundary layer winds reduce
precipitation amounts? Those questions will be answered as we get
closer to storm impact but some surface temperatures may not warm as
much as guidance suggests, which could result in some sleet or
freezing rain mix but too early to tell. The areas that have the best
chances at all or mostly snow are the Schoharie Valley, central and
western Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks where moderate to
heavy snow totals could occur. The northern Berkshires and southern
Green Mountains could also see mostly snow, in higher terrain at
elevations above the warm boundary layer. Even in areas that get a
mix, the initial snows Sunday night may be enough for potential
headlines but it is far too early to get precise about that.
Southeast to east winds in the higher terrain of the eastern
Catskills, Taconics, Litchfield Hills, Berkshires and southern Green
Mountains will likely be very strong and gusty Sunday night through
part of Monday morning and it is to be seen how much of that wind
can mix into the valleys. Once the system begins to depart midday
Monday through the afternoon, winds abruptly shift to west and
northwest and steadier precipitation ends. Scattered rain and snow
shower activity in the afternoon becomes snow showers and continues
into Monday evening. Lake effect snow shower activity develops
Monday evening and night and extends into the southern Adirondacks
and western Mohawk Valley.
Sbob
Well-known member
- Joined
- Apr 20, 2021
- Status
