wonderpony
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 24, 2020
No snow in the forecast, but definitely time to put the flannel sheets on!
Winter Weather 21/22
- Thread starter JTG
- Start date
- Status
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
NWS ALY
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Winter Weather Advisory for Dutchess, Litchfield and Berkshire
Counties from midnight tonight through noon Friday...
So, snow begins tonight, continuing through daybreak, then
exiting through Friday morning. Snow amounts of 2 to 5 inches
are possible in southern parts of the mid Hudson Valley, into
the Litchfield Hills and Berkshires, so Winter Weather
Advisories have been issued there. A dusting to 2 inches is
possible elsewhere with 1 to 3 inches in southern VT. Some of
the higher peaks of southern VT could see locally higher
amounts. Winter Weather Advisories may be considered later for
southern VT if a more widespread 3"+ snow zone is expected
outside of the higher peaks of the southern Green Mountains.
Some lake effect snow shower activity should develop Friday
night but as low level flow turns northwest to north northwest,
the lake effect activity should shift to the western Mohawk
Valley, Schoharie Valley and eastern Catskills through Friday
night. Some clearing should occur toward daybreak as the low
level flow turns north northwest to north northwest, especially
in areas from the Hudson River into western New England,
although, some upslope clouds are not out of the question.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some steady light precip will be moving in from the west prior to
daybreak on Sunday, with the best chance during the mid to late
morning hours. There continues to be some spread in the guidance
regarding the strength of a warm nose aloft and how quickly surface
temps rise above freezing. While all areas will see surface temps
below freezing to start, they should be rising thanks to the mild
southerly flow, both at the surface and aloft, especially for
southern and valley areas, as the departing high pressure area is
not in a favorable location to keep cold air locked in place. 00z
GEFS shows freezing rain or ice pellets may be the most likely p-
type at KALB during the morning hours. For now, will allow for
mainly snow at northern areas, with snow changing to snow/sleet or
sleet/rain for southern parts of the area, as the warm front crosses
the region.
For the afternoon and evening, additional precip is expected just
ahead, along and behind the cold front. P-type will transition to
either rain or snow, mainly depending on elevation. As colder air
quickly returns to the region, some lingering precip behind the
boundary may even change back to snow for valley areas before ending
as well, although some guidance is a little more uncertain in
showing if this will occur. Any steady precip is done by the late
evening, with lingering precip in the form of lake effect snow
showers for western areas. High temps on Sunday will generally
reach into the low to mid 30s for the entire area just ahead of the
boundary.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Winter Weather Advisory for Dutchess, Litchfield and Berkshire
Counties from midnight tonight through noon Friday...
So, snow begins tonight, continuing through daybreak, then
exiting through Friday morning. Snow amounts of 2 to 5 inches
are possible in southern parts of the mid Hudson Valley, into
the Litchfield Hills and Berkshires, so Winter Weather
Advisories have been issued there. A dusting to 2 inches is
possible elsewhere with 1 to 3 inches in southern VT. Some of
the higher peaks of southern VT could see locally higher
amounts. Winter Weather Advisories may be considered later for
southern VT if a more widespread 3"+ snow zone is expected
outside of the higher peaks of the southern Green Mountains.
Some lake effect snow shower activity should develop Friday
night but as low level flow turns northwest to north northwest,
the lake effect activity should shift to the western Mohawk
Valley, Schoharie Valley and eastern Catskills through Friday
night. Some clearing should occur toward daybreak as the low
level flow turns north northwest to north northwest, especially
in areas from the Hudson River into western New England,
although, some upslope clouds are not out of the question.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Some steady light precip will be moving in from the west prior to
daybreak on Sunday, with the best chance during the mid to late
morning hours. There continues to be some spread in the guidance
regarding the strength of a warm nose aloft and how quickly surface
temps rise above freezing. While all areas will see surface temps
below freezing to start, they should be rising thanks to the mild
southerly flow, both at the surface and aloft, especially for
southern and valley areas, as the departing high pressure area is
not in a favorable location to keep cold air locked in place. 00z
GEFS shows freezing rain or ice pellets may be the most likely p-
type at KALB during the morning hours. For now, will allow for
mainly snow at northern areas, with snow changing to snow/sleet or
sleet/rain for southern parts of the area, as the warm front crosses
the region.
For the afternoon and evening, additional precip is expected just
ahead, along and behind the cold front. P-type will transition to
either rain or snow, mainly depending on elevation. As colder air
quickly returns to the region, some lingering precip behind the
boundary may even change back to snow for valley areas before ending
as well, although some guidance is a little more uncertain in
showing if this will occur. Any steady precip is done by the late
evening, with lingering precip in the form of lake effect snow
showers for western areas. High temps on Sunday will generally
reach into the low to mid 30s for the entire area just ahead of the
boundary.
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
400 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal storm moving through off the east coast will bring
some light to moderate snow to the area tonight into Friday.
High pressure will bring mainly fair and cold weather on
Saturday. A cold front may bring mixed precipitation on Sunday
before temperatures plummet again on Monday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...Winter weather advisory in effect for northern Herkimer
County through 10 PM this evening...
...Winter Weather Advisory for Dutchess, Litchfield and
Berkshire Counties from midnight tonight through noon Friday...
For nor`Easter expected later tonight and Friday, run to run
consistency in sources of guidance/ensembles continue to be
excellent. Upper level closed low now over the great Lakes is
positively tilted and doesn`t phase with southern storm system
until storm is near Cape Cod. Models continue to advertise lower
snow totals from the storm over the southern Adirondacks,
Mohawk Valley and upper Hudson Valley where around an inch is
forecast, to 2-5 inches across the southern Berkshires, southern
Taconics and Litchfield County. Winter weather advisories seem
well placed at this time as consensus continues to indicate
heavier snows will be south and east of our forecast area.
The snow will affect the morning commute Friday. As the system
exits Friday afternoon, cold advection begins and winds will
become gusty from the northwest. Blowing and drifting of snow is
expected Friday afternoon and evening. Highs Friday in the 20s
to lower 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The next system will approach the area later Saturday night and
Sunday morning. A broad trough at 500 mb will be approaching from
the west, while synoptic scale forcing for lift will be provided by
upper divergence in the right rear quadrant of an upper level jet
over Quebec, along with isentropic lift associated with warm air
advection ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures will drop
quickly Saturday night, then slowly begin to rise after midnight.
Surface high pressure will be moving off the northeast and mid-
Atlantic coast and will not be in a favorable position to lock low-
level cold air in across our region. Expect precipitation to
begin as a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain early Sunday
morning, then transition to periods of light rain south of the
Adirondacks by late morning. From GFL north enough cold air
could hang on to keep temperatures below freezing through the
day, but again the synoptic pattern does imply that warmer air
will briefly make some progress to the north ahead of the cold
front. The cold front will move across the area Sunday
afternoon, followed by deep layer cold advection and an end to
most of the precipitation, although scattered lake effect snow
showers could develop west of the Hudson Valley toward evening.
National Weather Service Albany NY
400 PM EST Thu Jan 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal storm moving through off the east coast will bring
some light to moderate snow to the area tonight into Friday.
High pressure will bring mainly fair and cold weather on
Saturday. A cold front may bring mixed precipitation on Sunday
before temperatures plummet again on Monday morning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...Winter weather advisory in effect for northern Herkimer
County through 10 PM this evening...
...Winter Weather Advisory for Dutchess, Litchfield and
Berkshire Counties from midnight tonight through noon Friday...
For nor`Easter expected later tonight and Friday, run to run
consistency in sources of guidance/ensembles continue to be
excellent. Upper level closed low now over the great Lakes is
positively tilted and doesn`t phase with southern storm system
until storm is near Cape Cod. Models continue to advertise lower
snow totals from the storm over the southern Adirondacks,
Mohawk Valley and upper Hudson Valley where around an inch is
forecast, to 2-5 inches across the southern Berkshires, southern
Taconics and Litchfield County. Winter weather advisories seem
well placed at this time as consensus continues to indicate
heavier snows will be south and east of our forecast area.
The snow will affect the morning commute Friday. As the system
exits Friday afternoon, cold advection begins and winds will
become gusty from the northwest. Blowing and drifting of snow is
expected Friday afternoon and evening. Highs Friday in the 20s
to lower 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The next system will approach the area later Saturday night and
Sunday morning. A broad trough at 500 mb will be approaching from
the west, while synoptic scale forcing for lift will be provided by
upper divergence in the right rear quadrant of an upper level jet
over Quebec, along with isentropic lift associated with warm air
advection ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures will drop
quickly Saturday night, then slowly begin to rise after midnight.
Surface high pressure will be moving off the northeast and mid-
Atlantic coast and will not be in a favorable position to lock low-
level cold air in across our region. Expect precipitation to
begin as a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain early Sunday
morning, then transition to periods of light rain south of the
Adirondacks by late morning. From GFL north enough cold air
could hang on to keep temperatures below freezing through the
day, but again the synoptic pattern does imply that warmer air
will briefly make some progress to the north ahead of the cold
front. The cold front will move across the area Sunday
afternoon, followed by deep layer cold advection and an end to
most of the precipitation, although scattered lake effect snow
showers could develop west of the Hudson Valley toward evening.
Tjf1967
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2020
The hill on the ny mass border is the place to go.
gorgonzola
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2020
Whitegrass is the place to be, wish it wasn't so far. Have to parlay it with a trip to the ;burgh one of these days.
MarzNC
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
Here's who I follow for winter weather forecasts for skiing in the southeast. Brad is . . . skiing in Tahoe this week, but still paying attention. He's a TV weatherman in Charlotte. Been doing forecasts for SkiSE for quite a few years.
WV got about a foot. I'm going to Timberline next week. The trees will be in play!
WV got about a foot. I'm going to Timberline next week. The trees will be in play!
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
It's actually winter here tonight
- Status
