Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
Tug is getting 12+ wed - Thur
Winter Weather 21/22
- Thread starter JTG
- Start date
- Status
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
Local guy just hinted that early next week LE might show CNY a little love.
He also said it's way early but I like what he's saying.
He also said it's way early but I like what he's saying.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
NWS ALY
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
There are still questions about whether headline worthy snows will
fall in the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Litchfield Hills
and southern Berkshires but it will be close with the potential for
3 or 4 inches, more if the zone of heaviest snow shifts slightly
north. The Schoharie Valley to Capital Region, northern Berkshires
to southern VT and points north could see 1 to 3 inches with an inch
or so well north and west into the southern Adirondacks and western
Mohawk Valley. At least, those are the amounts to start with, until
routine new data and guidance allow for adjustments, downward or
upward, periodically over the next few days. Highs Friday in the 20s
to lower 30s with around 20 southern Adirondacks.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
There are still questions about whether headline worthy snows will
fall in the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Litchfield Hills
and southern Berkshires but it will be close with the potential for
3 or 4 inches, more if the zone of heaviest snow shifts slightly
north. The Schoharie Valley to Capital Region, northern Berkshires
to southern VT and points north could see 1 to 3 inches with an inch
or so well north and west into the southern Adirondacks and western
Mohawk Valley. At least, those are the amounts to start with, until
routine new data and guidance allow for adjustments, downward or
upward, periodically over the next few days. Highs Friday in the 20s
to lower 30s with around 20 southern Adirondacks.
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
NWS ALY
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thursday looks like a quiet day with slightly above normal
temperatures, then a developing coastal storm will be the main
forecast challenge for the end of the week. This system will
develop as short wave energy moves southeast from the Pacific
northwest across the mid-Mississippi Valley toward the southern
Appalachians. Some phasing may occur with weak short wave energy
over the Great Lakes later Thursday and the trough will
ultimately take on a negative tilt as it reaches the east coast
early Friday. Latest operational models and ensembles indicate
the best potential for heavy snow with this system will be
southeast of our area, however some spread remains on the exact
track of the system and it will be watched closely. For now we
have likely pops for late Thursday night and early Friday, with
some light snow amounts in the forecast, heaviest in Connecticut
and the mid-Hudson Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sunday will feature the best chance for precipitation in the long
term. A surface cyclone will develop in response to troughing aloft
over central Canada to the upper midwest. This surface low is
expected to track well to the north of our region towards Hudson Bay
in Canada. However, most of our area will see some precipitation
Sunday and possibly Sunday night as the trailing cold front moves
across our region. With a low-level jet stretching from the Gulf of
Mexico towards towards our region, there will be decent moisture
transport into our region, so did include some likely PoPs even at
this lead time. Precip type depends on how far northward the warm
front is able to push during the day Sunday, which remains uncertain
at this time. Therefore, will go near NBM guidance and will mention
the best chance for all snow across the higher terrain and northern
areas, with more rain in the valleys and a rain/snow mix elsewhere.
There won`t be a cold surface high to the north to help lock in the
cold air, but a cold antecedent airmass may allow for a few hours of
snow before the changeover even for valley areas.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thursday looks like a quiet day with slightly above normal
temperatures, then a developing coastal storm will be the main
forecast challenge for the end of the week. This system will
develop as short wave energy moves southeast from the Pacific
northwest across the mid-Mississippi Valley toward the southern
Appalachians. Some phasing may occur with weak short wave energy
over the Great Lakes later Thursday and the trough will
ultimately take on a negative tilt as it reaches the east coast
early Friday. Latest operational models and ensembles indicate
the best potential for heavy snow with this system will be
southeast of our area, however some spread remains on the exact
track of the system and it will be watched closely. For now we
have likely pops for late Thursday night and early Friday, with
some light snow amounts in the forecast, heaviest in Connecticut
and the mid-Hudson Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sunday will feature the best chance for precipitation in the long
term. A surface cyclone will develop in response to troughing aloft
over central Canada to the upper midwest. This surface low is
expected to track well to the north of our region towards Hudson Bay
in Canada. However, most of our area will see some precipitation
Sunday and possibly Sunday night as the trailing cold front moves
across our region. With a low-level jet stretching from the Gulf of
Mexico towards towards our region, there will be decent moisture
transport into our region, so did include some likely PoPs even at
this lead time. Precip type depends on how far northward the warm
front is able to push during the day Sunday, which remains uncertain
at this time. Therefore, will go near NBM guidance and will mention
the best chance for all snow across the higher terrain and northern
areas, with more rain in the valleys and a rain/snow mix elsewhere.
There won`t be a cold surface high to the north to help lock in the
cold air, but a cold antecedent airmass may allow for a few hours of
snow before the changeover even for valley areas.
- Status
