saratogahalfday
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2020
Looks to stay nice and cold until the end of the month, then some moderation. I fear a warm March.
Winter Weather 20/21
- Thread starter Harvey
- Start date
NorEaster27
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2020
could be a very nice week upcoming
NorEaster27
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2020
I like what I am seeing for the mountains, storm track should shift a bit north as we transition to more of a classic la nina look as we loose some of the high latitude blocking that put the storm track south of the NYC area.Oh man of few words... more please?
NYSkiBlog
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
705 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring cold, dry weather to the area through
Saturday. A weak storm system passing by to our south will
probably bring a light snowfall Saturday night into Sunday, then
dry and slightly milder weather will follow later Sunday. A more
unsettled with pattern will develop next week with chances for
snow starting on Monday.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will bring continued cold dry weather to the area
on Saturday. On Saturday night, a weak wave of low pressure
will develop off the mid-Atlantic coast and track east-northeast
well to the south of New England. This system will combine with
a weak northern branch feature to bring a little light snow to
most of our area Saturday night into early Sunday. Snowfall
totals for most of the area will be less than 2 inches.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Active weather pattern is expected in the long term period as two
separate systems are likely to impact our area.
The first system approaches Monday night and moves across the region
on Tuesday. There is fairly good model agreement with this system as
the surface low will track along a strong baroclinic zone, which
looks to be positioned to the south of the area (perhaps around New
York City or Long Island). The differences with the guidance is how
far north the warm nose gets aloft, which will determine where the
mixing line occurs. A general blend of the GFS/ECMWF at this time
suggests the best mixing potential is to the south of the Capital
District (across the mid-Hudson Valley into Litchfield County, CT)
but could shift farther north or retreat south in future runs. Areas
that are all snow could end up with at least a moderate
accumulation.
High pressure will build in on Wednesday and bring a dry day before
the next system forms near the Lower Mississippi Valley and tracks
across our area Thursday and Friday. Model guidance varies regarding
the track of this system. The GFS is rather consistent in tracking
this low to our west, which would lead to a transition from snow to
ice and then rain for most areas. The ECMWF, however, has more of a
track to our east, which would favor mostly all snow, with perhaps a
wintry mix to the south and east of the Capital District, pending on
how far north the warm nose gets. This system is still several days
out at this time so will hold with a blended approach and keep
p-type just snow/rain.
National Weather Service Albany NY
705 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring cold, dry weather to the area through
Saturday. A weak storm system passing by to our south will
probably bring a light snowfall Saturday night into Sunday, then
dry and slightly milder weather will follow later Sunday. A more
unsettled with pattern will develop next week with chances for
snow starting on Monday.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will bring continued cold dry weather to the area
on Saturday. On Saturday night, a weak wave of low pressure
will develop off the mid-Atlantic coast and track east-northeast
well to the south of New England. This system will combine with
a weak northern branch feature to bring a little light snow to
most of our area Saturday night into early Sunday. Snowfall
totals for most of the area will be less than 2 inches.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Active weather pattern is expected in the long term period as two
separate systems are likely to impact our area.
The first system approaches Monday night and moves across the region
on Tuesday. There is fairly good model agreement with this system as
the surface low will track along a strong baroclinic zone, which
looks to be positioned to the south of the area (perhaps around New
York City or Long Island). The differences with the guidance is how
far north the warm nose gets aloft, which will determine where the
mixing line occurs. A general blend of the GFS/ECMWF at this time
suggests the best mixing potential is to the south of the Capital
District (across the mid-Hudson Valley into Litchfield County, CT)
but could shift farther north or retreat south in future runs. Areas
that are all snow could end up with at least a moderate
accumulation.
High pressure will build in on Wednesday and bring a dry day before
the next system forms near the Lower Mississippi Valley and tracks
across our area Thursday and Friday. Model guidance varies regarding
the track of this system. The GFS is rather consistent in tracking
this low to our west, which would lead to a transition from snow to
ice and then rain for most areas. The ECMWF, however, has more of a
track to our east, which would favor mostly all snow, with perhaps a
wintry mix to the south and east of the Capital District, pending on
how far north the warm nose gets. This system is still several days
out at this time so will hold with a blended approach and keep
p-type just snow/rain.
sig
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2020
Sweet. Tons of snow ,warm March , big soft bumps, early golf season. Works for me
NYSkiBlog
Administrator
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2020
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
646 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold temperatures with mostly cloudy skies today. Some light
snow is possible tonight into early Sunday. Temperatures will
return closer to normal for Sunday. Another weak system is
expected to bring light snow on Monday, with a more widespread
snowfall expected Monday night into Tuesday.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Monday, another weak ripple in the strong midlevel flow is likely to
trigger another weak bout of isentropic lift. Since the midlevel
feature is so subtle, there is low confidence in timing of the
associated precipitation...
This looks like another nuisance event, but possibly a bit heavier than
tonight`s event. Early forecast for accum is mainly 2 inches or
less, highest west of the Hudson Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Active weather pattern with two systems expected to impact the
region: 1) Monday night into Tuesday night and 2) Thursday into
Friday. Both systems will be southern stream systems and are
expected to tap into plenty of moisture.
...the forecast has precipitation overspreading the area overnight Monday
night into early Tuesday then continuing through the day Tuesday
with a widespread moderate to heavy snowfall. Guidance indicates
some warmer air moves in aloft resulting in chances for sleet and
freezing rain across portions of the mid-Hudson Valley, northwestern
Connecticut into the Berkshires.
Only a brief break between systems is expected overnight Tuesday
into Wednesday night as high pressure slides across the region.
Uncertainty with the second system is much greater as the track is
very much in question, however the signal is there for a widespread
precipitation event.
National Weather Service Albany NY
646 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold temperatures with mostly cloudy skies today. Some light
snow is possible tonight into early Sunday. Temperatures will
return closer to normal for Sunday. Another weak system is
expected to bring light snow on Monday, with a more widespread
snowfall expected Monday night into Tuesday.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Monday, another weak ripple in the strong midlevel flow is likely to
trigger another weak bout of isentropic lift. Since the midlevel
feature is so subtle, there is low confidence in timing of the
associated precipitation...
This looks like another nuisance event, but possibly a bit heavier than
tonight`s event. Early forecast for accum is mainly 2 inches or
less, highest west of the Hudson Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Active weather pattern with two systems expected to impact the
region: 1) Monday night into Tuesday night and 2) Thursday into
Friday. Both systems will be southern stream systems and are
expected to tap into plenty of moisture.
...the forecast has precipitation overspreading the area overnight Monday
night into early Tuesday then continuing through the day Tuesday
with a widespread moderate to heavy snowfall. Guidance indicates
some warmer air moves in aloft resulting in chances for sleet and
freezing rain across portions of the mid-Hudson Valley, northwestern
Connecticut into the Berkshires.
Only a brief break between systems is expected overnight Tuesday
into Wednesday night as high pressure slides across the region.
Uncertainty with the second system is much greater as the track is
very much in question, however the signal is there for a widespread
precipitation event.
