Winter Weather 20/21

NWS ALY

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

While the long term period continues to feature a very active
pattern thanks to a closed low in southern Canada that will send
multiple shortwave through the Great Lakes and Northeast, the exact
timing and potential phasing with southern stream energy remains
quite uncertain, especially at this lead time.

...

A more potent shortwave heads towards our area Thursday night into
Friday
with the ECWMF and CMC suggesting that it phases with some
weak southern stream energy and takes on a negatively tilt as it
advances toward the Northeast. As a result, a second organized
precipitation shield may develop. Earlier model runs suggested that
a warm tongue may advance northward enough to present some p-type
issues for us. However, the newest trends now suppress the initial
low to our south enough that it is become more likely sufficient
cold air will be in place that this secondary precipitation shield
should produce mainly snow.

...we also note yet another potential coastal disturbance arriving over the
weekend and depending on where this tracks, the incoming arctic air
may moderate. The ECWMF and GFS are actually both in general
agreement that the arctic air does reach the Northeast as a strong
cold front moves through the area late in the weekend with the
coastal low staying far enough to our south/east...
 
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Laz has been texting me that stuff all day. Go to Plattekill and tell them I shared! ?
 
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Hangin' on.
 
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