Winter Weather 20/21

[saratogahalfday]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
646 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold temperatures with mostly cloudy skies today. Some light
snow is possible tonight into early Sunday. Temperatures will
return closer to normal for Sunday. Another weak system is
expected to bring light snow on Monday, with a more widespread
snowfall expected Monday night into Tuesday.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...

Monday, another weak ripple in the strong midlevel flow is likely to
trigger another weak bout of isentropic lift. Since the midlevel
feature is so subtle, there is low confidence in timing of the
associated precipitation...

This looks like another nuisance event, but possibly a bit heavier than
tonight`s event. Early forecast for accum is mainly 2 inches or
less, highest west of the Hudson Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Active weather pattern with two systems expected to impact the
region: 1) Monday night into Tuesday night and 2) Thursday into
Friday. Both systems will be southern stream systems and are
expected to tap into plenty of moisture.

...the forecast has precipitation overspreading the area overnight Monday
night into early Tuesday then continuing through the day Tuesday
with a widespread moderate to heavy snowfall. Guidance indicates
some warmer air moves in aloft resulting in chances for sleet and
freezing rain across portions of the mid-Hudson Valley, northwestern
Connecticut into the Berkshires.

Only a brief break between systems is expected overnight Tuesday
into Wednesday night as high pressure slides across the region.

Uncertainty with the second system is much greater as the track is
very much in question, however the signal is there for a widespread
precipitation event.

Tuesday looks like a winner!

 

[saratogahalfday]

Sweet. Tons of snow ,warm March , big soft bumps, early golf season. Works for me

That's just my gut...and long term forecasts. I think we'll stay normal through mid March.

 

[NYSkiBlog]

 

[jasonwx]

get at this week fellas
next weekend the party ends
according to the GFS anyway

 

[wonderpony]

get at this week fellas
next weekend the party ends
according to the GFS anyway

And, women should get at it as well.

 

[NorEaster27]

 

[NorEaster27]

get at this week fellas
next weekend the party ends
according to the GFS anyway

Sell that, think we go back to back this week

 

[NYSkiBlog]

 

[NYSkiBlog]

get at this week fellas
next weekend the party ends
according to the GFS anyway

 

[NYSkiBlog]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
427 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern will set up across the region through
much of the next week. A weak system with light snow is
expected tonight into early Sunday morning. However, a stronger
storm will be longer in duration lasting from Monday into
Tuesday and could bring a variety of precipitation types. Snow,
sleet and or freezing rain look possible, with the best chance
for a wintry mix south of Albany. Moderate to heavy snow is
expected from around Albany northward and westward.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Winter Storm Watch issued for the western and southern
Adirondacks, Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys, Capital District,
Lake George Saratoga Region, eastern Catskills, northern
Taconics, northern Berkshires and southern Vermont from Monday
through Tuesday afternoon...

The highest confidence time frame in terms of moderate to heavy
precipitation is overnight Monday night into early Tuesday
morning. As the aforementioned cyclone continue to track
northeast and intensifies somewhere near or just off the New
Jersey coast, southerly flow aloft will increase allowing for
abundant moisture to advect into the region. Forcing from
isentropic lift looks to be substantial as the gradient of
pressure contours on the 290K surfaces tightens considerably.
The exact track of the cyclone will play a crucial role in
precip-type, as some guidance (NAM/GFS) is indicating a change
to sleet and/or freezing rain from around Albany southward as a
warm nose aloft develops. Other guidance (ECMWF/CMC) are showing
a colder solution with mixed precip limited to far southern
areas. Based on an ensemble approach, the highest confidence
area for several inches of snow is from the Capital District
northward and westward, where 6-10+ inches is possible.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Next system is expected to move across our area Thursday and
Friday. Models continue to differ on how the system will evolve.
However, the 12z ECMWF is trending toward the GFS solutions of
a snow to ice to rain scenario as the new run has the low
tracking farther west and much closer to the Appalachians. As a
result and following collaboration with surrounding offices, our
forecast displays this snow to ice to rain (in some areas)
transition Thursday into Friday.