Brownski
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 19, 2020
I’m right there with you. NYSB summit at Silvermine
Winter Weather 20/21
- Thread starter Harvey
- Start date
ScottySkis
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 23, 2020
Some real first thought details on the upcoming winter storm.
I’ve been talking about this upcoming major winter storm for a little over a week now. The pattern did change Mid-January, and this storm did show up more or less as forecast, pattern recognition is a vital skill. The pattern going forward is going to see more shots of cold with an active pattern, then mid to end of February the pattern looks to go back to what we saw during the first half of winter, but again this has been talked about be me for a long time.
As for the storm, I've seen enough to think I have a decent handle on the dynamics of the storm. Enough so, that I feel comfortable to start through out possible accumulation amounts. I'm not going to produce a map until most likely Sunday night. But you should get a good idea of who will see what by reading my writeup....so please don't ask ..."What about my backyard?"
We have a lot of cold dry air over the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. Looking at todays surface chart we can see high pressure over the East Coast, with our Monday into Wednesday storm entering the Southern Plains, there is also high pressure locked in place north of the Great Lakes in Canada. The surface map does show a couple of shortwaves in the northern stream, the one over Montana is going to interact with the storm in the southern stream. The southern storm is developing, this development will continue as it advances east, heading for the Ohio Valley. Once in Midwest, the storm is going to stop, due to the block moving into the Canadian Maritimes. So, we will see the primaries energy transfer, and redevelop off the Mid Atlantic Coast.
The other day, I mentioned that the speed of this energy transfer would determine how strong the coastal storm became.
The models have come into general agreement on the upper air dynamics. Canadian high pressure will funnel in a lot of colder air throughout the region. We’re going to have a strong jet streak at around 850mb. The jet streak is going to provide a lot of vorticity and Atlantic moisture for the storm to develop. We also have a:
-EPO is a ridge in Alaska
+PNA which is the Ridge in the West Coast
-AO and -NAO for high latitude Block (Greenland Block)
All of these things indicate a major Nor’easter is likely.
As for general impacts
DC, Baltimore, Central New Jersey looks like 6-14 inches with some sleet and freezing rain mixing in. Philadelphia up to New York City most of long Island southern Connecticut, southwest Massachusetts up to around Boston, not including the Cape and Offshore Islands over to around Worchester will be seeing 12-18+ inches of wet snow. For the western 6-14 inches and the eastern Cape and Offshore Islands 3-6 inches of snow is likely. Southern New Jersey back through southern Delaware 4-8 inches with sleet and rain, but this should turn back to snow at some point. New York City and southern New England might not see any or very little sleet out of this.
Central into Western Pennsylvania, 6-14 inches of snow, the snow here should be more in the way of fluffy snow, ratios of 15-18 to one.
In New York State the southern Tier of New York (not including the Catskills) into the Hudson Valley south of Hudson 6-12 inches For the New York State Capital District 4-8 inches. The Catskills look to see 12-18+, Buffalo and Syracuse seeing 1-4 inches with northern New York State and the Adirondacks seeing a dusting to an inch.
Central and northern Connecticut (including Hartford) into western into central Massachusetts (including Springfield) 6-12 inches, sleet could mix in which would cut down on snow totals. Southern Vermont, Central and southern New Hampshire and Southern Maine (Portland to Bangor) 12-18 inches of snow, But Downeast could see some mixing so amounts here would be 4-12 inches. Central Vermont into northern New Hampshire 4-8 inches Northern Vermont and northern Maine 1-4 inches
Remember, these amounts are my first thoughts as far as accumulations and they could change.
With winds that could gust to 50-65 mph along and near the coast, coastal flooding for the Jersey Shore Long Island, and for Long Island Sound will be a big problem. Winds inland would be gusting between 25 and 45 mph.
I do expect blizzard Conditions for parts of eastern Pennsylvania into Southern New England, the strong gusty winds will make at least localized power outages very possible. So plan ahead, and have generators working, flashlights with fresh batteries, extra food, water, and medicines on hand. We've seen these kinds of storms before, so we know the drill.
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I’ve been talking about this upcoming major winter storm for a little over a week now. The pattern did change Mid-January, and this storm did show up more or less as forecast, pattern recognition is a vital skill. The pattern going forward is going to see more shots of cold with an active pattern, then mid to end of February the pattern looks to go back to what we saw during the first half of winter, but again this has been talked about be me for a long time.
As for the storm, I've seen enough to think I have a decent handle on the dynamics of the storm. Enough so, that I feel comfortable to start through out possible accumulation amounts. I'm not going to produce a map until most likely Sunday night. But you should get a good idea of who will see what by reading my writeup....so please don't ask ..."What about my backyard?"
We have a lot of cold dry air over the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. Looking at todays surface chart we can see high pressure over the East Coast, with our Monday into Wednesday storm entering the Southern Plains, there is also high pressure locked in place north of the Great Lakes in Canada. The surface map does show a couple of shortwaves in the northern stream, the one over Montana is going to interact with the storm in the southern stream. The southern storm is developing, this development will continue as it advances east, heading for the Ohio Valley. Once in Midwest, the storm is going to stop, due to the block moving into the Canadian Maritimes. So, we will see the primaries energy transfer, and redevelop off the Mid Atlantic Coast.
The other day, I mentioned that the speed of this energy transfer would determine how strong the coastal storm became.
The models have come into general agreement on the upper air dynamics. Canadian high pressure will funnel in a lot of colder air throughout the region. We’re going to have a strong jet streak at around 850mb. The jet streak is going to provide a lot of vorticity and Atlantic moisture for the storm to develop. We also have a:
-EPO is a ridge in Alaska
+PNA which is the Ridge in the West Coast
-AO and -NAO for high latitude Block (Greenland Block)
All of these things indicate a major Nor’easter is likely.
As for general impacts
DC, Baltimore, Central New Jersey looks like 6-14 inches with some sleet and freezing rain mixing in. Philadelphia up to New York City most of long Island southern Connecticut, southwest Massachusetts up to around Boston, not including the Cape and Offshore Islands over to around Worchester will be seeing 12-18+ inches of wet snow. For the western 6-14 inches and the eastern Cape and Offshore Islands 3-6 inches of snow is likely. Southern New Jersey back through southern Delaware 4-8 inches with sleet and rain, but this should turn back to snow at some point. New York City and southern New England might not see any or very little sleet out of this.
Central into Western Pennsylvania, 6-14 inches of snow, the snow here should be more in the way of fluffy snow, ratios of 15-18 to one.
In New York State the southern Tier of New York (not including the Catskills) into the Hudson Valley south of Hudson 6-12 inches For the New York State Capital District 4-8 inches. The Catskills look to see 12-18+, Buffalo and Syracuse seeing 1-4 inches with northern New York State and the Adirondacks seeing a dusting to an inch.
Central and northern Connecticut (including Hartford) into western into central Massachusetts (including Springfield) 6-12 inches, sleet could mix in which would cut down on snow totals. Southern Vermont, Central and southern New Hampshire and Southern Maine (Portland to Bangor) 12-18 inches of snow, But Downeast could see some mixing so amounts here would be 4-12 inches. Central Vermont into northern New Hampshire 4-8 inches Northern Vermont and northern Maine 1-4 inches
Remember, these amounts are my first thoughts as far as accumulations and they could change.
With winds that could gust to 50-65 mph along and near the coast, coastal flooding for the Jersey Shore Long Island, and for Long Island Sound will be a big problem. Winds inland would be gusting between 25 and 45 mph.
I do expect blizzard Conditions for parts of eastern Pennsylvania into Southern New England, the strong gusty winds will make at least localized power outages very possible. So plan ahead, and have generators working, flashlights with fresh batteries, extra food, water, and medicines on hand. We've seen these kinds of storms before, so we know the drill.
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wonderpony
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 24, 2020
I have this crazy idea that people have this real thing called breakfast. It's the same thing that I have when I drive by people's houses at night. I imagine that their houses are clean, they have had dinner, and are reading.
Why wouldn’t ya?
And dropping a foot plus on the roof of Inside Snow in NJ. Time to install a retractable?Open Snow algo is blowing up. Calling big for almost everyone in NY including Gore and WF. Not buying it.
Here's NWS' current thinking for the whole (?) event:
Does look kinda Belle-ish.
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
6-12 for us here in CNY 
Last edited:
wonderpony
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 24, 2020
Too busy. ?
