From the boys and girls at NWS ALY:
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for the eastern Catskills,
mid-Hudson Valley, the southern and central Taconics, Berkshires,
and Litchfield County CT, the Capital District, the
Helderbergs, Schoharie, Saratoga/Lake George area, southern VT,
Washington, and Warren counties from 7 am Monday to 1 pm Tue.
Key General Storm Takeaways:
*According to prior model iterations, eastern New York and western
New England (including the entire Albany metro area) remain in the
cross-hairs of an impending winter storm/Nor`easter.
*Confidence continues to increase that this will be a high impact
winter storm event.
*Preliminary snow amounts of 8-15 inches with locally higher amounts
across much of the area outside of Herkimer, Hamilton, and Warren
counties. 4-8 inches across Herkimer, Hamilton, and Warren counties.
*Blustery east-northeast winds will result in blowing and drifting
snow.
*Hazardous travel conditions are likely.
*This storm has the potential to be a long-durated event with start
time being early Monday and the end time being late Tuesday into
perhaps the early parts of Wednesday.
*Uncertainties still remain.
Snow Takeaways:
*Precipitation types (p-types) will be snow throughout the event
with the area placed in the storm`s cold-sector (northern region).
*Snow will be light and fluffy snow given the antecedent cold
airmass in place from the recent Arctic blast. Snow to liquid ratios
(SLRs) will range from 10:1 to 15:1. That said, snow will not have a
hard time sticking to the ground once it begins.
*Snow rates will be highest Monday night through Tuesday afternoon.
Monday night into Tuesday morning is the main event. That`s when
we`re expecting the heaviest snow rates to occur over the forecast
area as the coastal low deepens into a 980-990 mb Nor`easter.
During this event, it will also be quite blustery. Northeast winds
sustained at 10-20 kts will gusts 15-30 kts over the area Monday
into Tuesday. Highest winds will be located over the eastern
Catskills, the Taconics, Litchfield Hills, the Berkshires, and
southern VT. These areas could see wind gusts 20-30 mph.