Winter Weather 20/21

[Harvey]

Umm OK.

NWS ALY

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

The main focus continues to be focused the a "Miller B" type system
that will evolve into a coastal storm/Nor`easter and is expected to
bring accumulating snow and wind to the forecast area Sunday
night/Monday morning through Wednesday.

Here`s what you need to know since the previous updates:

1) Forecast models have shown a northwestward expansion of snowfall
that encompasses a good portion of the forecast area.

2) Forecast confidence is increasing on the fact that a good portion
of the forecast area will be impacted by this coastal storm.

3) Confidence is increasing that this will be a long-duration
storm with snow coming in as early as Sunday night/Monday
morning and persisting to Wednesday morning/afternoon.

4) There`s a wide range in snow totals as our preliminary snow total
forecast ranges from 2 inches northwest to about 8 inches southeast.

5) This storm system has overachiever potential given recent model
trends and some of the items mentioned above.

 

[jasonwx]

this is a extremely complex system. We haven't had a vertically stacked system in a long time. Who the winner will be is anyone guess at this time.

 

[ScottySkis]

From reliable Facebook weather people for mid Hudson Valley NY:

"Winter Storm Watch

The followers of this page are already well ahead of the grid. Late this afternoon the National Weather Service has finally issued a Winter Storm Watch. Many have been awaiting this official notification all day.

The preliminary forecast I issued this morning remains on track. I am currently forecasting 7”-14” of snow. Potentially more.

Keep monitoring First Due Weather for updates. Hours ahead of the others.

Here is the NWS notification verbatim:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT, Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12
inches possible.

* WHERE, Orange County.

* WHEN, From late Sunday night through late Monday night.

* IMPACTS, Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation."

 

[Harvey]

Come to papa.

 

[Harvey]

vertically stacked

Haha.

Does that mean the surface low and upper level low are in the same spot?

How is a vertically stacked storm different from any other?

 

[Harvey]

NWS ALY Evening Update...

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...

...Winter Storm Watch issued from 7 am Monday to 1 pm Tuesday
for the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, the southern and
central Taconics, Berkshires and Litchfield County CT...

We were most confident starting a Winter Storm Watch for the
eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, southern and central
Taconics, Berkshires and Litchfield Hills in the 4th period.
There continues to be a trend north and west and we may need to
expand the watch into southern VT, the Helderbergs, Capital
Region and Schoharie Valley later. Thanks for the collab with
the neighboring WFOs and WPC.

Monday night into Tuesday...The coastal low slows down, as it
gets captured by the H700 circulation near eastern NJ Monday
night into Tuesday. Ahead of the mid level deformation zone the
H500-700 FGEN remains over forecast area into New England. An
anomalous east to northeast low-level jet will increase the
upslope snow potential and moisture advection over the eastern
Catskills and western New England higher terrain.

We will likely need to expand the watch and will need advisories
later in time. There could be a sharp cutoff with the snowfall
over the southern Adirondacks depending on the track. The 12Z
ECMWF indicates the snow could continue for locations north and
west of Albany through Tuesday afternoon. The greatest impact
across the entire area continues to be Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Total snow amounts may change based on the track of
the storm. We used snow to liquid ratios in the 10-15:1 range
based on WPCs guidance. Snow amounts of 3-6" are possible from
the Capital Region north and west, and 6-12" south and east
including all of western New England. These amounts may occur
over 24-hours or more. They could change some based on the storm
track.

 

[wonderpony]

Well, considering I have had about ten inches of lake effect in the past few days, I guess it's nice for others to get some love, too.

 

[Kingslug]

It will dump at belleayre..why..
I will be there

 

[jasonwx]

gonna be honest..I want it to blizzard and dump at my house..I live to experience and witness wild weather..

 

[Harvey]

COME TO THE MOUNTAIN JASON!