Winter Weather 20/21
- Thread starter Harvey
- Start date
- Joined
- Jul 15, 2020
NWS ALY
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The highlight of the long term period continues to focus on a
moisture rich storm system for early to middle of next week
(Monday night into Tuesday). With plenty of cold air in place,
there is rather high confidence that this will be an all snow
event. With global guidance starting to come into better
agreement, we will continue to mention this snow event in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook. Read on for details.
....
Just how far north the precipitation shield advances is still
uncertain since the latest guidance tracks the center towards
eastern New England which may prevent areas north/west of the
Capital District from experiencing the strongest precipitation
bands. Therefore, we continued to keep low end chance POPs for
the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. The exact
storm track will dictate which areas will experience more
significant snowfall and with most of the latest guidance
tracking the storm center into eastern New England, there is
uncertainty if the heaviest precipitation will be able to reach
our eastern areas or if it will be focused in New England.
While there is uncertainty on storm track, we have increasing
confidence that this will be an all snow event. Precipitation
will likely spread into an established cold air dome that our
strong Canadian high to the north will likely maintain. In
addition, deterministic guidance keeps the low track to our
south and east which would prevent the warm nose from surging
northward into our region.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The highlight of the long term period continues to focus on a
moisture rich storm system for early to middle of next week
(Monday night into Tuesday). With plenty of cold air in place,
there is rather high confidence that this will be an all snow
event. With global guidance starting to come into better
agreement, we will continue to mention this snow event in the
Hazardous Weather Outlook. Read on for details.
....
Just how far north the precipitation shield advances is still
uncertain since the latest guidance tracks the center towards
eastern New England which may prevent areas north/west of the
Capital District from experiencing the strongest precipitation
bands. Therefore, we continued to keep low end chance POPs for
the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. The exact
storm track will dictate which areas will experience more
significant snowfall and with most of the latest guidance
tracking the storm center into eastern New England, there is
uncertainty if the heaviest precipitation will be able to reach
our eastern areas or if it will be focused in New England.
While there is uncertainty on storm track, we have increasing
confidence that this will be an all snow event. Precipitation
will likely spread into an established cold air dome that our
strong Canadian high to the north will likely maintain. In
addition, deterministic guidance keeps the low track to our
south and east which would prevent the warm nose from surging
northward into our region.
&&
Campgottagopee
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 20, 2020
Still light LE going on here
ScottySkis
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 23, 2020
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Just came back in from the stable, I can tell you, in spite of all the sunshine with the temperature and the gusty winds it’s definitely cold outside. With these dangerously cold wind chills make sure you bundle up in layers if you go outside. Radar shows the narrow bands of lake effect off the Great Lakes. Those along the New England Coast will be dealing with snow showers and snow squalls, this will be especially true for Cape Cod and the Offshore Islands, as precipitation rotates around the upper level feature.
Here is what I do know, looking at today's, surface chart and current satellite, we can see the early next week storm is now in California. From here it will move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Once in the Plains it’s going to pick up a lot of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico. Then it will move into the Ohio Valley. Once in the Ohio Valley it is going to hit a brick wall, then we will see it start to transfer its energy to the coast. We also know we will have arctic cold entrenched through the weekend. What we have to figure out is how fast this energy handoff occurs.
We look to see the coastal low develop off the North Carolina Coast. Here it will have a lot of Atlantic moisture available. If the energy handoff is fast, we end up with a very robust coastal that move north and east and becomes a major nor’easter with a very large precipitation shield. If the transfer is slow, we end up with a moderate coastal, that moves north and east with a much smaller precipitation shield. With the cold air inland and the above average warm water off the Atlantic Coast, we will have a vigorous temperature gradient in place. This is going to give the storm plenty of fuel to work with.
The blocking high in Canada along with an upper-level cut-off low, is going to cause the coastal to slow to a crawl. The storm could briefly stall or even retrograde back to the west. So, this is going to a be a long duration event. Tuesday the storm will very slowly moving away with lingering snow into Wednesday. Right now, the model trend is showing the storm tracking a little more south and east. So, we will have to watch this trend carefully, as it indicates where the northern and western extent of the snow shield will be located, right now this would mean northern New York State and northern New England would see little impact from snow. But of course, this has time to change.
The Major Cities in the I-95 corridor have a chance to see significant snow. It’s too early to say how much snow will fall in the I-95 but 6 to 12+inch amounts are very possible, especially for New York City and Boston. Inland we’re going to have a tight cutoff between the heavier snow, and the lighter snow. Where this cutoff occurs will depend on how robust the storm becomes, and the actual track the storm takes. But places in the interior will have a shot at 2+ feet of snow, if things come together. Again, it’s too early to know where those potential areas will be. The track of the storm is also going to determine where the sleet, freezing rain, and rain will setup.
This storm is going to have a lot of potential to become a major nor’easter, with heavy snow, wind, and wave action.
wonderpony
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jul 24, 2020
Me, too.
