The New Normal

[raisingarizona]

I’ve been working in southern Utah since August. You wouldn’t know there’s a pandemic going on down there. They haven’t been wearing masks or closing any businesses until now, the numbers are going up and hospitals are filling up too.

 

[Warp daddy]

True RA , what we lacked was National Leadership

 

[Campgottagopee]

We had amazing leadership here in NY, imo, and it's back. It's a pandemic. It's here now in CNY more than ever and I'm very cautious about it. My gut tells me we're in for trouble. Hope I'm completely wrong.

 

[MarzNC]

one of the trail faeries here is from Australia. He told me that they went on a serious lock down for a good while, now there’s no covid problem there.

To be clear, there were two lock down periods. The first one was for the entire country for a few months. Later on one state out of six in Australia had a 4 month lock down. Really a "lock down." People in Melbourne (city of several million) in the state of Victoria weren't supposed to go farther than about 3 miles from their house even for solo exercise like riding a bike or taking a walk. VR decided to close Falls Creek and Hotham after only 4 days because of the situation in Victoria. Perisher (owned by VR) and Thredbo (indy, on Ikon) were the only larger resorts that stayed open all season (June-Sep).

There is no international travel out of Australia for citizens right now without a very specific reason. They aren't expecting to be able to travel to Japan or N. America to ski until 2022. That would be like people in DC, VA, PA not being able to ski anywhere but the mid-Atlantic this season and perhaps next season too. Mountains in Australia aren't that high.

Population of Australia is about 26 million, for the entire continent. Of course most of the Aussies lives in a few large cities (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth) that are all smaller than 5 million.

I've been active on the large Aussie ski forum for a few years. A lot of knowledge there about traveling for skiing in Canada, Japan, Europe, and the Rockies.

 

[MarzNC]

I’ve been working in southern Utah since August. You wouldn’t know there’s a pandemic going on down there. They haven’t been wearing masks or closing any businesses until now, the numbers are going up and hospitals are filling up too.

I know several Ski Divas who lives in Utah. They aren't very happy with the situation. Apparently there was a Halloween gathering of around 10,000 people. Only broken up by police who someone called because there was a fight that got out of hand.

Gov. of Utah issued a mask mandate recently. But I wonder how many people will actually change their habits. Although when the number of deaths goes up, that's usually what it takes to get more people's attention. SLC medical staff have been warning of disaster for weeks.

Utah Gov. Announces Statewide Mask Mandate, Citing Steep Spike In COVID-19 Cases

Gov. Gary Herbert has declared a new state of emergency, limiting social gatherings and putting K-12 extracurricular activities on hold for the next two weeks.

www.npr.org

 

[MarzNC]

We had amazing leadership here in NY, imo, and it's back. It's a pandemic. It's here now in CNY more than ever and I'm very cautious about it. My gut tells me we're in for trouble. Hope I'm completely wrong.

Definitely not good that NY and all the New England states are showing not only increases in number of cases, the Reff is going up and not leveling off. That means community spread is getting out of control in some neighborhoods.

Remember "flatten the curve"?

Take a look at Rt Live and compare the latest summary to 3 months ago. Scroll down to see the curves for all the states. Very different patterns. Not sure what the deal is for MS is but I suspect they simply aren't testing much.

Rt COVID-19

Up-to-date values for Rt — the number to watch to measure COVID spread.

rt.live

Somehow NC, SC, and TN are all doing okay in comparison to other regions. Not really handling the situation in the same way either. So there is clearly more than one approach that can be effective. I'm certainly happy I live in NC instead of VT or NM.

 

[MarzNC]

The CDC published a brief report this week that pulls together the evidence that mask usage is highly effective when most, if not all, people are using face coverings consistently and correctly (covering mouth and nose). There are plenty of references for those who want to read the original scientific reports or journal articles. Some of the conclusions of the report are based on "observational and epidemiological studies" done since January 2020 in multiple countries.

I remember reading the NY Times article about the two hair stylists in Missouri who worked while they had COVID-19 before they were tested, but didn't infect any customers. Everyone was required to wear a face mask back in May while in the salon, both employees and customers.

2 Stylists Had Coronavirus, but Wore Masks. 139 Clients Didn’t Fall Sick. (Published 2020)

A new study looks at what might have been a dangerous outbreak — had it not been for vigilant mask wearing.

www.nytimes.com

Headlines this week point to the idea that this is the first time that the CDC has mentioned that a person wearing a decent face mask gets some level of protection. However, when it comes to cloth face masks reducing community spread is based on universal usage so that people who are infected are much less likely to infect someone else. In particular people who have no idea that they are shedding SARS-CoV-2 because they don't have any symptoms--yet--or mild symptoms that they think are due to another cause.

Nov. 10, CDC
Scientific Brief: Community Use of Cloth Masks to Control the Spread of SARS-CoV-2
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html
" . . .
Conclusions
Experimental and epidemiological data support community masking to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. The prevention benefit of masking is derived from the combination of source control and personal protection for the mask wearer. The relationship between source control and personal protection is likely complementary and possibly synergistic14, so that individual benefit increases with increasing community mask use. Further research is needed to expand the evidence base for the protective effect of cloth masks and in particular to identify the combinations of materials that maximize both their blocking and filtering effectiveness, as well as fit, comfort, durability, and consumer appeal. Adopting universal masking policies can help avert future lockdowns, especially if combined with other non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, hand hygiene, and adequate ventilation."

 

[jasonwx]

The CDC published a brief report this week that pulls together the evidence that mask usage is highly effective when most, if not all, people are using face coverings consistently and correctly (covering mouth and nose). There are plenty of references for those who want to read the original scientific reports or journal articles. Some of the conclusions of the report are based on "observational and epidemiological studies" done since January 2020 in multiple countries.

I remember reading the NY Times article about the two hair stylists in Missouri who worked while they had COVID-19 before they were tested, but didn't infect any customers. Everyone was required to wear a face mask back in May while in the salon, both employees and customers.

2 Stylists Had Coronavirus, but Wore Masks. 139 Clients Didn’t Fall Sick. (Published 2020)

A new study looks at what might have been a dangerous outbreak — had it not been for vigilant mask wearing.

www.nytimes.com

Headlines this week point to the idea that this is the first time that the CDC has mentioned that a person wearing a decent face mask gets some level of protection. However, when it comes to cloth face masks reducing community spread is based on universal usage so that people who are infected are much less likely to infect someone else. In particular people who have no idea that they are shedding SARS-CoV-2 because they don't have any symptoms--yet--or mild symptoms that they think are due to another cause.

Nov. 10, CDC
Scientific Brief: Community Use of Cloth Masks to Control the Spread of SARS-CoV-2
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/masking-science-sars-cov2.html
" . . .
Conclusions
Experimental and epidemiological data support community masking to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. The prevention benefit of masking is derived from the combination of source control and personal protection for the mask wearer. The relationship between source control and personal protection is likely complementary and possibly synergistic14, so that individual benefit increases with increasing community mask use. Further research is needed to expand the evidence base for the protective effect of cloth masks and in particular to identify the combinations of materials that maximize both their blocking and filtering effectiveness, as well as fit, comfort, durability, and consumer appeal. Adopting universal masking policies can help avert future lockdowns, especially if combined with other non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, hand hygiene, and adequate ventilation."

Shame that our leaders don’t believe in science.

 

[Tjf1967]

Its a shame our scientists can't come up with something to cure stupid.

 

[Brownski]

When your only tool is a hammer, everything starts to look like a nail